Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play. Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!
| Race 1 | 1st -Selfless | 2nd -Counterintelligence ( GB ) | 3rd -Just So Pretty |
#3 SELFLESS hasn't done much to get the heart thumping in the mornings for today's overture, but she's a four year old facing a group of younger foes today, and while that doesn't matter so much this time of the year, it's still worth mentioning. The pedigree is obviously there, and being she went for 300 large three years ago, she's obviously well meant. Slimmest of margins in an opener that leaves a lot to be desired. #5 COUNTERINTELLIGENCE (GB) is another well bred faster with top flight connections behind her, and tipped her hand ( Hoof ? ) a bit with the best of 26 bullet gate move on the 21st of September. Could be any kind. #4 JUST SO PRETTY is fleet afoot, and could move forward off the career best effort in today's second of the layoff try. OFF TURF: 4-2-4-3-5
| Race 2 | 1st -Geopolitics | 2nd -Brooklyn Dantz | 3rd -Poseidon's Mist |
We were amazed it took Mott so long to put the blinkers on #4 GEOPOLITICS after five straight brutal defeats to begin her career ( favored in each ), but when they were finally affixed, she won by a pole at odds on. All the way once again. #2 BROOKLYN DANTZ hasn't shown much in the last troika, but totes the lightest impost of her career, and we actually consider this a drop in class. Solid unders candidate. #1 POSEIDON'S MIST loses the eye cups in her first start off being snagged for a quarter in early September, and the pre layoff jock returns, which is something we always like to see.
| Race 3 | 1st -Flat Out Flying | 2nd -Bossmakingbossmoves | 3rd -Skylander |
Ya gotta to love a war horse like #3 FLAT OUT FLYING. This soon to be nine year old gelding has amassed a sensational 57:19-14-11 declining mark throughout his career, banking more than $420,000 the hard way. Philadelphia jock comes in for today's mount, and aside from the stats just listed, this fella has done even much better at today's distance. #7 BOSSMAKINGBOSSMOVES has won two of his last three, and three of his last seven, and despite being out of jail is confidently hiked up in class by underrated shotcaller David Duggan. Jockey/Trainer combination fare better together than apart, and a repeat is well within reach this afternoon. #4 SKYLANDER has hit the board in his last quintet, and who are we to rock that boat?
| Race 4 | 1st -Teller to Win | 2nd - Twilight Tango | 3rd -Straca |
#4 TELLER TO WIN gave a solid account of herself when picking up 10% of the pot at Philadelphia Park first time out, and slides off the rail a bit this afternoon while shedding a whopping 10 lb.'s in the weight department. Should be no worse than third for all of you who like to grind out a show profit. #1 TWILIGHT TANGO also completed the triple at first asking, and well bred runner is still eligible to improve. #3 STRACCA didn't show a whole heck of a lot first time out, but was a bit awkward at the onset in that bow, and we're betting that Duggan has put this one through the paces a bit since then to figure things out.
| Race 5 | 1st -Dunedin | 2nd -Seaver | 3rd -Coast Along |
#3 DUNEDIN got up in time to blow up the tote board to the tune of 93 clams down in Kentucky on September 11th, earning a career best speed figure in the process. While a bounce is always possible off of that, we're going to lean his way once again. #8 SEAVER has been slightly erratic in his last triad, but is one of two at today's distance of ground, and lost by only a neck the only time he was in the third off the layoff engagement. Could be coming late with any pace to cut into. #1 COAST ALONG has made every call a winning one in his last duet, and we'd be silly McGilly to exclude off of those back-to-back lifetime best numeros. OFF TURF: 12(MTO)-1-2-14(MTO)-4
| Race 6 | 1st -Magical Road | 2nd -Mitole's Diamond | 3rd -Bolt d' Plata |
#3 MAGICAL ROAD didn't display a whole heck of a lot in the 5th place finish last time out, but perhaps this one just doesn't dig the off going. Front wraps were added then, so right off the bat it would behoove you to take a gander during the warmups. In the good news department, this outfit is on a five for five run with maiden claiming dirt dashers with sabbaticalsof less than 34 days at 10 to 1 or under. The winners in that study came back $21, $13, $6, and $5 x 2. Things to like. #2 MITOLE'S DIAMOND has been completely outrun in both starts to date, but is dropped in class once again and has been freshened up for today's second start on the dirt. Could surprise a bit. #5 BOLT D' PLATA is beginning to develop the looks of becoming a professional maiden, but fared quite well the only time he went from green to brown, and jock is starting to heat up a bit after a slow start to the meet.
| Race 7 | 1st -Elle Este Forte | 2nd -You Know Nothing | 3rd -Dancing Dean |
#7 ELLE ESTE FORTE is a nibbler by rote, but outran her odds honestly enough when completing the superfecta at 22-1 last out, and jock is encouraged to stick around today. Mild choice here. #4 YOU KNOW NOTHING hasn't been seen since late April, but hung up an adjusted 87.7 the only time she returned off an absence, and displayed some improvement from her first Turf event to the next. #2 DANCING DEAN has a nice collection of speed figures, but often leaves herself with too much to do, so we're going to keep beneath. OFF TURF: 1-8-10(MTO)-6-5
| Race 8 | 1st -My Life Story | 2nd -Starsinthecity | 3rd -Cousin Ed |
#9 MY LIFE STORY by no means disgraced herself when dashing for the first time about a month ago, as he lost by less than two lengths after being close to the pace early on. Could move forward today in the second attempt at a sprinters' pace. #3 STARSINTHECITY showed some decent improvement from her first sod sprint to the next, and it occurred when going up against the boys. Jockey/Trainer pair do better together than separate, and this one figures prominent once again. #1 COUSIN ED drops in class after finishing in the back half of the pack in her comebacker, and must be left in the mix in her second start off the break. OFF TURF: 15(MTO)-14(MTO)-5-4-11(AE)
Aqueduct Fall: 28-170 ( $181.50 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-8 ( 12.5% ) Favorite's Win %: 62-170 ( 36.5% ) ( As of Thursday morning )
Saratoga Summer ( Final ): 85-410 ( $852.10 ) Beatable Favorites: 3-17 ( 17.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 136-410 ( 33.3% )
Aqueduct Spring/Summer ( Final ): 66-292 ( $454.70 )Beatable Favorites: 4-10 ( 40% ) Favorite's Win %: 118-292 ( 40.4% )
Saratoga Spring ( Final ): 7-47 ( $31.20 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A Favorite's Win %: 19-47 ( 40.4% )
Aqueduct Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4316-21042 ($35,798.90) +/-: -14.9% against a 16% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Beatable Favorites : 477-1789( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 8081-21779( 37.1% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4346-21657 ( $36,749.40 ) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.6% takeout
