Just an $11 winner for us here yesterday.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play. Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!
Race 1 | 1st -That'sthefactjack | 2nd -Millie Jean | 3rd -La Incidente |
#2 THAT'STHEFACTJACK didn't show a heck of a lot the last time she was on a glib service, but outran her odds quite nicely when placing in her only other start on a track labeled fast. The adjusted speed figure of 57.4 from that afternoon came without the use of the wonder drug, so there's definitely a bit of upside here as she is now back in with her own gender. #3 MILLIE JEAN hasn't seen the scene in nearly an annum, but has a few solid running lines to her credit, and is now made available for purchase for the first time. #7 LA INCEDENTE could perk up a bit with the blinker removal in today's second start off the bench.
Race 2 | 1st -Obstreperous | 2nd -Lisa's Vision | 3rd -Mz Big Bucks |
#8 OBSTREPEROUS ( Which means "...noisy and difficult to control" is out of the dam "Introspective' -- ya get it? ) monikers aside, this miss has found a different niche since transitioning to the verde, as she's been a very professional victress in both starts over the stuff. Gal drops a couple of pounds off the win, which is something we like to see, and is a major threat once again. #6 LISA'S VISION has been a part of the exacta in nearly half of a career outings, and gets a bit of class relief after flopping in a stakes. #4 MZ BIG BUCKS enters today off a career best speed figure but as she is out of state bred optional races, is now in with open company for the first time. Leaving beneath. OFF TURF: 4-5-2-9-6
Race 3 | 1st -Whatchatalkinabout | 2nd -Vettriano | 3rd -Aggelos the Great |
#6 WHATCHATALKINABOUT hasn't been seen in nearly the full length of a calendar, but was doing a lot of good stuff when last an action, & returns in receipt of the miracle drug for the first time. Cross entered yesterday at Keeneland, so be sure to check the scratch board for a runner that should definitely be examined pre race. From a DRF Formulator aspect, barn is three of six when adding Lasix to their optional dirt runners or breaks of seven weeks or more, with the winners paying $7, $2, and $3. #5 VETTRIANO was a bit overmatched in the King's Bishop, but went back to back just before that, and obviously deserves a chance to make amends. #1 AGGELOS THE GREAT ain't feeling so great these days, as he's lost his procreating abilities since last in action, but goes two turns to one while having scored in two of his last three outings outside of stakes company.
Race 4 | 1st -Find Your Joy | 2nd -You're Forever | 3rd -Accelerina |
#6 FIND YOUR JOY has been in the back half of the pack in her last troika, and the white flag is now officially run up on this one as she's entered for $16,000. The good news though, is that she's been a part of the superfecta in both starts on this oval, and four returnees from the last have amassed a cumulative mark of 4:1-1-1, with an average speed figure improvement of a couple of points per. #5 YOU'RE FOREVER was a gritty winner the only time she was in a second off a layoff spot, and recently placed in a near identical spot back on 9/13. Sensible inclusion. #3 ACCELERINA has hit the board 4 of 5 times beneath the seagulls, is good as any for the show bread.
Race 5 | 1st -Ms. Tart | 2nd -Jody's Pride | 3rd - Irish Maxima |
#1 MS. TART may be overlooked a bit in this spot, given her recent quartet of clunky running lines, but if you can draw a black sharpie through everything but her efforts on firm ground, what you do have is a win and a showing when outrunning her odds in each, w/the latter coming in a steaks event at the Pea Patch. So technically, who knows where the ceiling is with this one in that regards, and note that blinks are now a part of the makeup. That last part is of some significant relevance, as this outfit is on a four for six run when doing such to their dashers at 32-1 or less, with mutuals of $7, $10, $3, and $14. Hoping for some big time value here. #7 JODY'S PRIDE goes over the green stuff for the first time this afternoon, but is decently bred for it, and got the job done in both times after a sabbatical. Can't fault you for chunking this one in your rolling bets. #3 IRISH MAXIMA has won four of five six career outings, and does such had a solid offering in each one. Recently got the job done in the Weather Vane Stakes and that hunch angle for all you 'Bijou' lovers only adds to the allure. OFF TURF: 1-8-4-10(MTO)-9
Race 6 | 1st -Sky Low Low | 2nd -Vino Samara | 3rd -National Archive |
#10 SKY LOW LOW -- Named after a Canadian midget wrestler, who was also a riveter in the tail gun section of airplanes during World War II -- ( What did you think, you were going to get that one past me, Al ? : ) ) Has a solid amount of sod pedigree for today's lid lifter, and is the first foal to race out of ta dam who was two for six in routes. In regards to the rest of the family tree, Twirling Candy & Candy Ride, both did well on the synthetic and lawn, and filly lands in a soft spot for the bow. #7 VINO SAMARA went for more than three times the stud fee up north last year, and has a couple of okay morning moves on the ledger. #2 NATIONAL ARCHIVE came from the back of the pack to close out the superfecta first time out, but as this jockey/trainer combination curiously do poorer together than when apart, we are going to leave beneath, especially as she's likely to be overbet bit. OFF TURF: 6-4-9-1-16(MTO)
Race 7 | 1st -Cees Get Degrees | 2nd -Pipes and Drums | 3rd -Mister J T |
#5 CEES GET DEGREES has been kept in jail since being purchased for today's price at the end of August, and we always find it encouraging when a pre claim jock comes back, and you have to love this fellas 4 of 8 record in Ozone Park as well. Grab him by the tail to get the glory. #9 PIPES AND DRUMS takes the mandatory hike in class after being snagged for a quarter back on the 14th of September, and Toscano enlists the services of Silvera, who's done fairly well for him in the past. #8 MISTER J T is another one claimed out of the just mentioned event, and finished directly in front of the above in that heat. Chestnut Chap runs sans eye cups for the first time in 40 events, and should be in the thick of things once again, given the way he's improved in the Beyer department over his last quintet.
Race 8 | 1st -Wonderful Justice ( GB ) | 2nd -Mondego ( GB ) | 3rd -McCullough |
#7 WONDERFUL JUSTICE (GB) gave an honest enough account of himself when returning off a bit of an absence, and if past history has told us anything, it's that this one showed some nice improvement the only time he was in a second off the layoff situation. He lost by only a head at 16-1 that day, and improved in the speed figure area by approximately 8.7%. From a Formulator point of view, Sharp is just that when it comes to his turf routers getting blinkers for the first time or breaks of 37 days or less and odds at 37-1 or less as well. He doubles his normative 16% rate with that sort, as he's four of 12 with the winners coming back $19 X 2 and $9. #8 MONDEGO ( GB ) is a zippy sort making his third start off a l/o, and from a limited trainer stat perspective is two of five with locally based optional sod starters who missed the baccala 43 to 67 days back, with payouts of $9 & $7. #1 MCCULLOUGH aims for the hat trick today, and as this boy has done nothing but improve with each passing start, who are we to say that it's not achievable? OFF TURF: 8-1-5-11(MTO)-12(MTO)
Race 9 | 1st -Stamp of Approval | 2nd -It's Satisfactual | 3rd -Princess Buttercup |
#3 STAMP OF APPROVAL has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but looked pretty good when completing the triple in her first try on the green stuff, and despite that, Klaravich wastes no time whatsoever in dropping this quarter of a million dollar purchase in for 75k today. It's a curious drop, for sure, and you might want to take a look at this one during the warmups. Mild selection in a finale with no first draft tossouts. #4 IT'S SATISFACTUAL sure doesn't need to take her track with her, as this is her fifth different locale from six starts to date. That being said, she seems to give it the old college try pretty much every time, and gets a pilot that has done fairly well for this outfit in the past. #7 PRINCESS BUTTERCUP showed diddly poo down in Virginia at the end of August, and although she's put up for sale now, we are willing to give her a chance to sort things out, given the top flight turf pedigree. OFF TURF: 5-10-4-3-8
Aqueduct Fall: 25-150 ( $151.10 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-6 ( 16.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 51-150 ( 33.6% ) ( As of Friday morning )
Saratoga Summer ( Final )85-410 ( $852.10 ) Beatable Favorites: 3-17 ( 17.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 136-410 ( 33.3% )
Aqueduct Spring/Summer ( Final ): 66-292 ( $454.70 )Beatable Favorites: 4-10 ( 40% ) Favorite's Win %: 118-292 ( 40.4% )
Saratoga Spring ( Final ): 7-47 ( $31.20 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A Favorite's Win %: 19-47 ( 40.4% )
Aqueduct Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4316-21042 ($35,798.90) +/-: -14.9% against a 16% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Beatable Favorites : 477-1789( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 8081-21779( 37.1% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4346-21657 ( $36,749.40 ) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.6% takeout