KevinCoxItem


Three chalky winners on a washout of a day Sunday. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 5/26

 

Race  1

1.Mooney Mooney

2.Dark Princess

3.Graceful

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #3 MOONEY MOONEY got smacked around at the onset when beginning her working life in Ozone Park two fortnights back, but fought the good fight in closing out the exacta that day, and now gets the wonder drug for the first time. There's been a nice breeze since that effort, and this one should be no worse than 3rd for those looking to grind out a show profit. #4 DARK PRINCESS showed absolutely zippo when starting things out two weeks back, but is better bred for the brown than the green, and Jose sees fit to give this one a shot, as she takes the biggest drop in the game. #5 GRACEFUL has hit the board in three straight, four of five, and draws the outside for the first time in today's 3rd start off the pine. 

 

Race  2

1.Tass

2.Aziza

3.Strong Odor

We're seeing the second half of the Early Daily Double as easy as 1-2-3.  #1 TASS hasn't been in action since the fall, but lightly races seven year old mare owns a win & a placing from as many turf routes off a break in the action, and is also two for three when breaking from the wood in going long on the lawn ( with none of those races overlapping ). Factor if fully cranked up. #2 AZIZA is two of five at the trip, 3:1-0-0-2 after an absence, and it's always encouraging to see Prat take the call. #3 STRONG ODOR ( Out of 'Tuna' -- ya get it ? ) comes in off an honest showing versus similar when going short, and has hit the board in both 1X to 2X events. The ol' grey mare has been camera shy for the last 22 months ( 11 starts ), but can land a share.  OFF TURF: 1X-1-2-5-3

 

Race  3

1.Beaute Cachee ( Fr )

2.Ambitieuse

3.Union Dolly 

#1A BEAUTE CACHEE (FR) has been away from the game for quite some time, but new shotcaller is 4 for 6 with allowance sod stayers shipping in from overseas ( 68+ days ) ridden by Irad ( $3, $4 & $6 x 2 ). Gal also gets the wonder drug for the 1st time. #4 AMBITIEUSE was "ambitiously" spotted in a pair of stakes before disappearing for ten flips of the calendar, and seems to have gotten his confidence back with a score in a soft spot down at Oldsmar. Likely won't be able to set those splits here, but can still grab a piece. #2 UNION DOLLY has really turned the corner since missing the superfecta in the first four starts to her career, as she's gone 7:3-1-2-1 since, and drops three pounds off the recent score -- something we always dig.  OFF TURF: 5-6-1X(MTO)-1-1A

 

Race  4

1.Dancing Sophia

2.Honey Money

3.Movie Moxy

#4 DANCING SOPHIA disappeared from the worktab for 20 days after completing the Aqueduct hat trick on 3/26 ( Hmmm... ), but pre-layoff pilot returns, and this miss has done decently off a break in the action. Obvious majah playah, but it would behoove you to take a peek in the paddock. #1 HONEY MONEY comes out of that debacle a week ago in which four of the six entrants were scratched due to late administering of Lasix, so they brought the race back -- giving this one ( who was essentially eased after a half, but still picked up 20 large ) another crack at things. Ignore the Beyer from that day, and she belongs again. #5 MOVIE MOXY is 6:2-2-2 at the trip, and that's reason enough to chunk in.  NOTE: AS OF 12:41, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  5

1.Addicted to You

2.Feathers Road

3.Penner Ash ( Ire )

#6 ADDICTED TO YOU must have appreciated the break in the action, as he got up in time to best maiden platers in Queens on the 26th of April, and sometimes when the light bulb comes on, it can stay on for a bit. Mild choice in a race with no first draft tossouts. #5 FEATHERS ROAD is a nibbler by rote ( 14:1-4-5 ), and is now made available for purchase for the first time while also making her initial attempt in going long. #7 PENNER ASH (IRE) is another who has a "For Sale" sticker attached to her tooshie, and can improve with the comebacker beneath her girthstrap.  OFF TURF: 3-5-2-4-8  NOTE: AS OF 12:45, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6

1.My Favorite Topic

2.Saint in the City

3.Please Baby 

#4 MY FAVORITE TOPIC went 56-57-63 in his troika of turf deals to date, and after getting crushed when taking the obligatory hike in class off the claim on the Hallandale poly, has been given a bit of a layoff & is now back on his preferred surface, while being entered for 20% less than the purchase price. Could be sitting on a good one. #5 SAINT IN THE CITY is a $150,000 auction purchase who can be all yours for a heck of a lot less this afternoon. Note that the best effort came beneath Junior, as this one makes his 3rd start off the bench. #1 PLEASE BABY rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 9-6-3-2-1  NOTE: AS OF 12:45, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Majestic Tiger

2.Silipo 

3.Bronx Bomber

#3 MAJESTIC TIGER was in the rear with the gear when spotted in allowance company last time out, but don't judge too harshly, as this one has finished no better than 6th in three tries at that level. Having said that, five year old is on a nice 5:1-3-0-1 run in the claiming ranks, and switches from an apprentice to a journeyman today. From a DRF Formulator aspect, Gus more than doubles his normative 12% batting average with locally based mid level sand stock who missed the baccala < 40 days in the rear, with the winners coming back a healthy $20, $12, $4 & $15. #8 SILIPO went coast to coast like butter and toast at this level on Saturday, and we see little reasons to exclude. #1A BRONX BOMBER comes in today off a solid 4:1-0-3 skein, but we'll keep beneath because of the winless mark at Big Sandy.  NOTE: AS OF 12:41, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8

1.Dream Central

2.Whatlovelookslike

3.Silken Dollar

#6 DREAM CENTRAL hasn't faced the starter since All Hallows Eve Eve, but outran her 26-1 offering when overcoming some troubles to complete the triple in her one and only try off a hibernation, and is backed by some interesting stats for this 8% outfit. Over the last 60 months, Sciacca is a poyfect four fer four with optional turf routers off L/O's of 92-292 days , and just look at these payouts -- $53, $8, $17 & $26, AND today's helmsman is an unblemished 2 for 2 when handling this one -- with returns of $21 & $80 !! That's a cumulative 6 of 6 in some pertinent categories, with an average win mutuel of $31.67. #3 WHATLOVELOOKSLIKE fell short by three parts of a length the only time she was in a second off the bench spot, and has yet to finish out of the super; logical. #2 SILKEN DOLLAR won her only start on a firm Widener and gets Irad for the first time.  OFF TURF 10(MTO)-3-7-12(MTO)-11(MTO)

 

Race  9

1.Moon Hunter

2.Moving Pictures

3.Heymackit'sjack

#10 MOON HUNTER has been away since mid December, but despite an ugly sextet before the shelving ( along with today's hike ), Johnny V. gets the call for a barn that's a tight two for three with sod dashers off sabbaticals of 66-366 days ( $13 & $14 ). #1 MOVING PICTURES is one of two in second off the layoff heats, and takes the mandatory rise in class after the purchase about 139 1/2 hours ago. #11 HEYMACKIT'SJACK owns some early zip and has never seen these depths.  OFF TURF: 6-13(MTO)-1-14(MTO)-8

 

Belmont:              21-114 ( $124.50 ) Beatable  Favorites:  2-9 ( 22.2% ) Favorites Win %: 39-114 ( 34.2% )( As of Thursday morning )

Graded Stakes:   7-28    ( $58.30 )    Beatable  Favorites:  N/A                Favorites Win %:  8-28    ( 28.6% )

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Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 29-154  ( $236.10 ) Beatable Favorites:   1-3 ( 33.3% ) Favorites Win %:  58-154 ( 37.7% ) 

Aqueduct             ( Final ):97-370  ( $639.10 ) Beatable  Favorites: 9-24( 37.5% )  Favorites Win %:  139-370 ( 37.6% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2022 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568           ( $819.20 ) Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-23 (All Final):3690-18492  ($31,342.90) Beatable Favorites : 435-1602( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 6970-18595( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.2%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 3774-19120 ( $32,155.50 )Beatable Favorites : 450-1668( 27% )   Favorite's Win %: 6980-18809( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


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