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Profitable day for us here on Sunday ( 8:2-3-3 ), making it every day with a winner this meet, and multiple winners on 15 of 18 days.

Additionally, we are now 156:46-23-18 on the stand ( $312 Bet/$462 Returned ), as we're guaranteed a flat bet profit until at least February 4th.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #6 Solid Tune


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 1/20

 

Race  1

1.Afilada

2.Sweet Surprise

3.Sealithic

#5 AFILADA has ( from a speed figure standpoint ) improved with each outing, and now has the miracle drug administered for the first time. Can make amends for the odds on defeat. #1 SWEET SURPRISE has posted some decent adjusted Beyers, and is just about as well bred for the brown as the green. Filly goes from an apprentice to a journeyman today, a move that we dig at times. #3 SEALITHIC has been freshened up for this & drops while having Lasix administered.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 SOLID TUNE

 

Race  2

1.Great Workout

2.Irish Giant

3.Confectioner

#5 GREAT WORKOUT got up in time to best what we would consider to be a similar allotment on 12/18, bringing this one's mark in Ozone Park to two for three. From a DRF Formulator standpoint, Atras is a zesty 11 for 19 with mid level dirt stock who won less than 51 days ago that are 8-1 or undah ( $2.72 ROI ), and there's a sub category of 3 for 5 with second off the claim equines. #1 IRISH GIANT takes the mandatory hike in class after being snagged a week & a half ago, but we'll leave beneath for a barn that's been frigid of late. #2 CONFECTIONER more than outran his odds when closinmg out the triple @ 48-1 last out, and is eligible to land a share once again. 

 

Race  3

1.Hey It's Tati

2.The Glenmore

3.Big Tony's Girl

#6 HEY IT'S TATI drops in class ( and a bit of weight ) after a decent showing on New Year's Eve, and mare has hit the board in both "3rd off the layoff" engagements. Best work has come at this locale, and we'll give her a slight edge. #2 THE GLENMORE hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but the lone win came right here, and gal now finds herself at her lowest level to date. #1 BIG TONY'S GIRL is another who has done well here, and can grab a piece. 

 

Race  4 

1.Mister J T

2.Romantic Man

3.Tough Workout

#3 MISTER J T popped & stopped in the slop last out, but gets in with an improving feather today, and from a DRF Formulator standpoint, honk if you like Donk with his locally based sand sprinters at this level who missed the baccala 30-50 days back that are 20-1 or beneath, as he more than triples his normative 10% batting average ( 4-12 ), with payouts of $15, $19, $31 & $5. #4 ROMANTIC MAN missed by a sliver in this race on the 11th of December, and Carlito is a decent two of seven with runners of this ilk who hit the board off of this kind of break ( $3 & $11 ). #8 TOUGH WORKOUT is fleet afoot ( ahoof? ) & draws well. 

 

Race  5

1.Choose Happiness

2.Dancing Kiki

3.Honey Money

#2 CHOOSE HAPPINESS put forth an honest showing in an identical spot 32 days in the rear, and can improve here if able to get a tidier sojourn than the last time. Mild selection. #4 DANCING KIKI has been given some time to regroup after a couple of stinkers, and it's worth noting that this one has won his last pair with a "For Sale" sticker attached to her butt. #5 HONEY MONEY has been a part of the superfecta in seven straight & 10 of 11; logical "unders" candidate.

 

Race  6 

1.Orb in the Tower

2.It's Mandatory

3.Roman Empire

#6 ORB IN THE TOWER is one of two on a track labeled FST, and goes green to brown & two turns to one for the first time. Seems to be properly spotted. #4 IT'S MANDATORY was an honest runner up in this deal five weeks back, and we see no reason another solid effort isn't within his grasps vs. these. #5 ROMAN EMPIRE finds himself at his lowest level to date and may grab a check.

 

Race  7

1.Golden Plume

2.Kept Waiting

3.My Roxy Girl

#1 GOLDEN PLUME takes her initial spin on the main in this spot, and as she's just about as equally bred for it as the verde -- & given her fair efforts over that stuff -- we'll give her a slight edge. You can essentially say "ditto" in regards to the #4 KEPT WAITING, as Falcone charge should handle today's surface switch with aplomb; adding to the allure is the seven ITM finishes from her last octet. Note this barn's insane 26:14-5-3-2 run on this circuit with dirt stock at 5-1 or beneath ( going back to June 26th ). Well, it's no secret by now that we're the unofficial president of the 'MY ROXY GIRL' fan club, as this best valued NYB female of all time goes over the $730,000 mark with a score today, and it's not just her 54:11-14-11-4 lifetime mark that endears her to us, but how she tries so hard each & every time. Leaving this #5 in the unders today, as the Rice barn is an igloo in N.Y. these days.  NOTE: AS OF 12:27, DUE TO A LATE, LATE SCRATCH, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Gimmedamoney

2.Walk the Bank

3.Bosship

We're not really feeling the heat in today's nitecap, so exercise some caution. #1 GIMMEEDAMONEY hasn't faced the starter since the fall, but new bossman gives this one the biggest drop in the game while giving this one the big "L" as well. #2 WALK THE BANK begins his professional working life today, and does such with a healthy 383 Tommy for the trip. Four of the available five members of this one's family tree won within their first three starts, and this one needn't be much. #5 BOSSHIP undergoes a gamut of changes & would only need to find one of those agreeable to make an impression.  NOTE: AS OF 10:42, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 9-1-6.


Aqueduct          ( Current ): 46-156  ( $462 )   Beatable  Favorites    4-21 ( 19.1% )   Favorites   Win %:    54-156     ( 34.6% ) ( As of Thursday morning ) 


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3112-16022 ($26,872.10)  Beatable Favorites : 390-1427( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6040-16030 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.1%  against a 16.9% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3197-16590 ($27,691.30)   Beatable Favorites : 405-1495( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6203-16691 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -16.4%  against a 16.7% takeout


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