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8:1-2-3 on Thursday, with the winner paying $14 & an Ice Cold $93 Exacta to boot. That makes us 111:36-16-10 on the stand ( $222 Bet/$373 Returned ), as we're guaranteed a flat bet profit until at least January 22nd. 

We've now had at least one winner every day this meet, and at least two winners in 11 of 13 days.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 1/8

 

Race  1

1.Roz

2.Beautiful Banks

3.Banksamillion

#4 ROZ begins her working life today, and does such with a nicely tucked a way bullet breeze on the docket. Of the six immediate members of the family tree, five of them won wither their first or second start, and barn has won with their last four one turn runners, and this one couldn't land in a softer spot. #5 BEAUTIFUL BANKS rallied nicely to pick up 20% of the pot in the most recent, and is logical once again. #7 BANKSAMILLION has shown moderate improvement over her last pair, and takes a bit of a drop while acquiring the wonder drug for the 1st time. Could sit a nice stalking trip. 

 

Race  2

1.Sibelius

2.Ryan's Cat

3.Chowda

#1 SIBELIUS returned off a 3 1/2 month absence to flash some early speed before finishing third in a near identical spot about a month back, and could move forward with that under his girthstrap. From a DRF Formulator standpoint, 18% shedrow clicks to a 4-13 tune with their allowance dirt dashers who hit the board 8-50 days back that are 12-1 or less, with solid payouts of $18, $23, $31 & $5. #5 RYAN'S CAT hasn't been seen since Derby week, but owns a placing in his lone dirt start off the pine, and has done fine work at this locale. Take a peek in the paddock. #2 CHOWDA is another who digs the Big A, and should be in the thick of things. 

 

Race  3

1.Escapology 

2.Inouaintalkingtome

3.War in Paradise

#9 ESCAPOLOGY more than outran her 31-1 offering when closing out the exacta in an identical spot 27 days in the rear, and while a bounce after a career best effort is always possible, we're assuaged by the nice trainer stat we've unearthed. Over the last 60 months, Bond has the golden gun with his locally based maiden claiming dirt stock who crashed the fiesta 22-50 days back, as he's 6:5-0-1 w/that type ( $6, $8, $14, $7 & $4 ). #1 INOUAINTALKINTOME almost got our day started off nicely on 12/12, as she missed by a sliver to the tune of 11-1. Triple bug gave the horse a decent trip that day, but appeared a bit weak in the lane, so we'll leave beneath. #3 WAR IN PARADISE smacked into the starting apparatus in her bow ( happens a lot here, it seems ), losing all hope, but takes the biggest drop in the game for today's surface switch, and we'll chunk in. 

 

Race  4 

1.Sound Money

2.Market Alert

3.Risk Profile

We're not really feeling the heat here, so tread lightly. #7 SOUND MONEY was a so-so third when going long at Philadelphia Park two months ago, ( a race win which both who finished directly in front of him came back to win ), and 4YO also had a showing in his sole start off the bench. Barn is a decent 3-8 with those fitting this criteria off sabbaticals of 51-71 days. Tepid choice. #3 MARKET ALERT is back at a more palatable level after being walloped in the stakes attempt, and as this one has made the super in 11 of 12 dirt attempts, we have no problems incorporating. #8 RISK PROFILE may land a share. 

 

Race  5

1.Striking Speed

2.Mr. Briggs

3.Scotty

#12 STRIKING SPEED nearly won this race on the 12th of December, and as he's 4:1-1-2 in this zip code, we see no reason another solid effort isn't well within reach. #7 MR. BRIGGS has only beaten seven home in his last quintet, but finds himself at an all time low in this spot, & J/T combo have won three of their last six sand sprints right here ( $7, $16 & $5 ). #6 SCOTTY made us look brilliant with an 11-1 last to first win after we gave him our longest writeup ever here. Four yr. old was 30-1 M.L. & opened up at 6-1 that day ( thanks to y'all ), for the exciting win, and we'll toss in once again. 

 

Race  6 

1.Jake Rocks

2.Charlie Five O

3.Extreme

#5 JAKE ROCKS got rightfully DQ'd when beating the gate back in October, and he's been given some time off since that mishap. Donk charge is a chronic nibbler ( 26:1-4-5 ), but has hit the board in three of four dirt tries off a L/O, and we'll make this one a meeeeeek selection. #2 CHARLIE FIVE O has done decent work here and posted two decent running lines before the flop in the slop; chance to rebound. #4 EXTREME had no palatable excuse for the disappointing try when tangling with winners for the first time, but that's never an easy thing to do, and has breezed well since.   NOTE: AS OF 10:43, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Irish Constitution

2.Ruvies in Time

3.Rossa Veloce

#5 IRISH CONSTITUTION was in the rear with the gear when going over the verde for the first time in early December, but was a going away victress the only time she stepped foot ( hoof ) over a fast track here. We'll bite at 12-1. #6 RUVIES IN TIME has been kept in jail since the snag back in the fall, and Rudy Rod brings her back at exactly the same level today. Gal adores it here ( 4 of 10 ) and has a nice 4:1-0-1 ledger off a break in the action. Note that she didn't miss much time in between the last race & her first workout, so fitness shouldn't be too much of an issue. #4 ROSSA VELOCE sheds a whopping 10 lbs. since a solid placing up at the Lakes a month & a half back, so why not include at what will be some juicy odds. 

 

Race  8 

1.Alpha Chi Rho

2.My Boy Tate

3.Battle Station

#1 ALPHA CHI RHO is a model of consistency who has the sort of "declining" mark that we dig so much ( 12:6-2-1 ) as it tells us that he has a schnoz for the line, and aside from all that, will be brought over by a shotcaller who's 3 fer 5 with those who won their last & are NOT receiving Lasix today ( 60-1 or less ). The mutuels for that study were $121, $12 & $7, and gal should sit a perfect trip. #5 MY BOY TATE is 14:7-3-1 in Queens, and gets a six pound break from the main threat today. #3 BATTLE THREAT hasn't faced Empire breds in nearly four years, but is three of five against that type, and is reunited with a jock he's had some nice success with. 

 

Race  9 

1.Royal Currency

2.True Empress

3.Belarus

#3 ROYAL CURRENCY was a gamely runner up when debuting on Bijou Day up at The Spa, and two winners from that day won their next outings ( from five different races ), and gal gets the big "L" for the first time here. In regards to the lattermost point, Charlie is a tight 3 for 4 when that occurs with his second timers on the main ( seven week break of longer ), with returns of $8, $10 & $4. #5 TRUE EMPRESS has closed out the triple in both starts to date & is a logical contendress. #4 BELARUS tossed in a clunker after a couple'a decent starts to begin her career, and is another new 3YO suddenly in need of the miracle drug.  


Aqueduct          ( Current ): 36-111  ( $373.00 )    Beatable  Favorites    4-20 ( 20% )   Favorites   Win %:    44-111     ( 39.6% ) ( As of Friday morning )


Graded Stakes   ( Final ): 11-74      ( $91.50 )    Beatable Favorites    1-3  ( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:    32-74      ( 43.2% )

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ): 29-144   ( $206.30 )    Beatable  Favorites    1-12 ( 8.5% )   Favorites   Win %:    46-144    ( 31.9% ) 

Belmont              ( Final ): 68-300   ( $523.40 )   Beatable Favorites   10-32 ( 29% )   Favorites  Win %:   100-300  ( 33.3% )

Saratoga             ( Final ): 81-417   ( $578.30 )   Beatable Favorites    7-19 ( 36.8% ) Favorites Win %:     166-417 ( 39.8% )  

Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3112-16022 ($26,872.10)  Beatable Favorites : 390-1427( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6040-16030 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.1%  against a 16.9% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3197-16590 ($27,691.30)   Beatable Favorites : 405-1495( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6203-16691 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -16.4%  against a 16.7% takeout


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