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Just a couple'a chalky winners on a semi washout yesterday.  


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #3 Wicked Mad


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Saratoga - 7/22 - Happy Birthday Queen Bee 

 

Race  1

1.Gibralfaro ( Ire )

2.Redicean ( GB ) 

3.Baltimore Bucko ( GB ) 

Featured race of the day comes at us right away, as it's the Grade One A.P. Smithwick going over the hedges, and it's an extremely competitive rendition with the slight nod going to #6 GOBRALFARO (IRE). Fisher trainee is an extremely consistent sort who's partaken in the superfecta in all his American starts but two, and that includes a decent record in 3rd off the layoff attempts. From the most miniscule of samplings, aforementioned shotcaller has won with both of his graded jumpers off breaks of 41-67 days @ 14-1 or undah, and jock having a sensational year. #4 REDICEAN (GB) is 5:2-1-1 off a break in the action, but picks up 12 lb.'s here, so we'll keep beneath. #3 BALTIMORE BUCKO (GB) got his photo taken the only time he returned off of this kind of break, and comes in today off of a fast closing runner up 25 days back. 

 

 

Race  2

1.Pregame

2.Recidivist

3.Moonshiningbright

#6 PREGAME has disappointed in the recent pair, but hung up an adjusted 83.9 the last time he ran on the main, and accomplished such at a substantially higher level. Mild choice. #7 RECIDIVIST hasn't been in action since early April, but takes the plunge in today's comebacker, and jockey/trainer combo have done extremely well together. Factor if able to get back to the bow. #2 MOONSHININGBRIGHT has only bested seven in five trips to the frontside, but given the poor turf pedigree, we're thinking the last was merely for some "bottom", and given the crisp breezes leading up to that, we wouldn't be surprised to se this one put forth a goodie.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 WICKED MAD will be led over by a bossman who's oh-fer-nine with locally based maiden claimers ridden by Santana. 

 

 

Race  3

1.Mongolian Humor

2.Violent Trick

3.Persian Queen 

#3 MONGOLIAN HUMOR has put forth decent efforts in the last duet, and in a bit of an anomaly, starts from the pine for just the second time in 36 outings ( the other was a well clear placing vs. similar type ). Not sure why Cancel eschewed this one in favor of the Sciacca runner, but we'll take a shot. #1A VIOLENT TRICK ( who should be no worse than second, for all you place punters out there ) nearly went all the way on Friday, and is going one for two when going 2X to 1X. #5 PERSIAN QUEEN outran her odds when finishing 4th in her lone "3rd off the L/O" jammie, and owns ( "Owwwwwwns....owwwwwwwns." ) a crisp two fer four mark in Togatown.  NOTE: AS OF 12:19, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION. 

 

 

Race  4 

1.Tenderness

2.Courageous Girl 

3.Stunning Munnings

#5 TENDERNESS takes the obligatory hike in class after being snagged on the first of the month, but that doesn't bother us too much, as this one has been in good form over the last ( spread out ) quartet, and hung up an adj. 74.7 in his sole "third off the respite" attempt ( without front wraps, which are now a part of the makeup ). #1 COURAGEOUS GIRL is available for purchase for the first time, and has a one for three mark at today's distance of ground. #7 STUNNING MUNNINGS rounds out the top three. ( Which is another way of saying "We have nothing else interesting to say about this race."

 

 

Race  5

1.Miss Interpret 

2.Office Etiquette

3.Hope Over Fear

#8 MISS INTERPRET showed precipitous improvement second time out ( her first without the wonder drug ), and Pletcher sees fit to send this one over the blades for the 1st time.  Not much to get excited about in the family tree in regards to such, but we've always been fond of dirt dashers going long on the lawn, and will lean her way in a race with no first draft eliminations. #9 OFFICE ETIQUETTE ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) overcame a bit of trouble to complete the super when debuting in Joyzee a dozen days ago, and is eligible to improve with a tidier sojourn. #6 HOPE OVER FEAR went for 16X the stud fee at auction and is showing a few decent morning moves for today's career starter.  OFF TURF: 1-9-7(MTO)2-10  NOTE: AS OF 12:14, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

 

Race  6 

1.Saratoga Kisses

2.Quick Power Nap

3.Derrynane

#2 SARATOGA KISSES got a little bit better the second time around, and has the hood added by Rudy Rod this afternoon. Two returnees who finished directly in front of this one came back to finish first and third in the same heat next time out, improving by an average of seven points. #7 QUICK POWER NAP is a FTS'er who's a half to a 13;2-2-2 turfer, and we'll toss in despite the slow works. #3 DERRYNANE comes in today with a second best of 31 gate move on 7/1, and dam was 7:3-0-3 on the verde, while the maternal grandsire was two for two on the poly, which we have always felt translates to the grass kindly.  OFF TURF: 7-2-1-9-4

 

 

Race  7

1.Cause to Dream

2.Quantitativbreezn

3.Bustinmygroove

#5 CAUSE TO DREAM was a nicely clear runner up in a similar spot on Independence Day, and gets a substantial upgrade in the jockey dept. here, while having blinkers affixed for the first time. #6 QUANTITATIVBREEZN went coast to coast like butter and toast in her sole dirt deal, so why would we exclude? #1 BUSTINMYGROOVE is a bit of an in and outer, but totes her lightest impost to date and has never been entered this cheaply. Could spice things up beneath the triple bug boy. 

 

 

Race  8 

1.Cat's Pajamas

2.Birdie Queen

3.Mia Martina

We have three tidy but tight sets of DRF Formulator stats in play here, so let's get right to 'em. #2 CAT'S PAJAMAS: Motion is a perfect three for three with locally based optional turf stayers who crashed the board less than 60 days back & are 5-1 or beneath ( 3rd off the L/O ), w/returns of $5, $12 & $8. #1A BIRDIE QUEEN: Mott owns a 2 for 4 mark when being handed a foreign shipper and spotting then in a race such as this ( 68 days or greater ). #6 MIA MARTINA: ( Uncoupled barnmate with our top selection ) will be led over by a trainer who is 2 of 6 with Saratoga based turfers going long at 6-1 or beneath ( $12 & $8 ).  OFF TURF: 1(MTO)-2-1A-7-4(MTO)

 

 

Race  9 

1.Subsidiary

2.Ice Princess

3.Longpants Required

#7 SUBSIDIARY has faded late in the game over her last pair, but stretches out to two turns on the dirt for the first time, and sometimes animals like this can get brave if able to set some soft splits on an easy lead. Mare completed the tri in her only trip to the Adirondacks two years ago, and is one of two with today's helmsman. #3 ICE PRINCESS is one for two in 2nd off the bench attempts, and has done okay at this trip & over this strip. #2 LONGPANTS REQUIRED can grind out a share. 

 

 

Race  10

1.Social Whirl

2.Orma

3.Stella Mars

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #4 SOCIAL WHIRL hung around a bit longer in the most recent, and despite Castellano being off to a slow start, J/T combo are on a decent 10:4-2-1 run with turfers of late, and those winners returned $7, $31, $20 & $9. Know her early but have the Pepto handy late. #2 ORMA was an okay 3rd at this level back in May, and hot Saez gets the call. #12 STELLA MARS is showing a baby "Z" pattern from the last start ( lost 1 1/2 lengths from the quarter to the half before gaining 2 3/4's from that point to the line. While a bounce is always possible, we'd be remiss in excluding.  OFF TURF: 8-1-3-9-4 

 

 

Saratoga          ( Current ): 11-50       ( $91.40 )   Beatable Favorites    1-3   ( 33.3% ) Favorites Win %:     18-50     ( 36% ) ( As of Thursday morning )  

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 4-27        ( $34.60 )   Beatable Favorites    0-1      ( 0% )   Favorites  Win %:    11-26     ( 42.3% )


Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2923-15087 ($25,472.60)  Beatable Favorites : 371-1361( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5706-15169 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.5%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3008-15655 ($26,291.80)   Beatable Favorites : 386-1429( 27% )   Favorite's Win %: 5889-15756 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


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