KevinCoxItem


We had a flat bet profit for the opening week -- let's do it again this week ! 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Saratoga - 7/21 - Steeplechase Day

 

Race  1

1.The Mean Queen ( Ire )

2.City Dreamer ( Ire ) 

3.Bodes Well ( Ire ) 

We're BIG fans of the Steeplechase program, and encourage y'all to support it at the windows as well this meet !!  #3 THE MEAN QUEEN (IRE) shoots for the grand salami in this year's rendition of the Jonathan Kaiser, and it's well within reach, as this one has gotten better with each & every start, and drops weight off a win, which is something we always dig. #2 CITY DREAMER (IRE) displayed zippo in the most recent, but is in a 3rd off the layoff scenario today, and ran second ( by a length ) in each try off of that kind of spot. #7 BODES WELL (IRE) completes the "Erin Go Bragh" triple based on the decent last two showings for Leslie Young..

 

 

Race  2

1.Copa

2.Mission Wrapitup

3.Democratic Values

These three 7 now more for all our rolling action. #6 COPA is spotted WELL below the price claimed from two back, but the pre layoff pilot returns, and Diodoro is 2 for 8 with second off the claim mid level dirt dashers off absences of 51-91 days ( $10 & $8 ). Gelding is one for three when breaking from the outermost two slots as well. #5 MISSION WRAPITUP goes turf to dirt today, and closed out the tri in his lone other attempt in doing such. Grey gelding is reacquainted with Double D today, and they've done quite well together ( 5:1-1-1-1 ). #4 DEMOCRATIC VALUES was an all out winner in his sole third off the L/O jammie, and was nestled between two next out winners in his only visit to The Spa..

 

 

Race  3

1.Coalition Building

2.Peacebethejourney

3.Wow

#1 COALITION BUILDING is a fairly steady sort, but has a propensity for burning some baccala, and is now made available for purchase for the first time. When it comes to his maiden claiming turf routers who were in the money 57-67 days back, Brown is a poyfect three for three ( $3, $5 & $6 ) with a sub category of one for one w/ third off the shelf type. #5 PEACEBETHEJOURNEY is confidently hiked up in class today after being snagged for 50 large at Elmont three fortnights ago, and the pedigree tells us this one should appreciate the added distance in ground. #2 WOW put in her worst turf effort to date when having blinkers added last time out, and said equipment is promptly left in the barn today, so we're expecting some improvement for a runner with a "For Sale" sticker attached to her rump for the first time.  NOTE: AS OF 11:45, DUE TO THE RACE BEING ON A FAST TRACK, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-2-4.

 

 

Race  4 

1.Ready A.P. 

2.Run Curtis Run

3.Surprise Boss

#5 READY A.P. was visually impressive when winning right outta the box for C-Squared at Big Sandy, and the 350 Tomlinson for today's trip tells us that there's some room for improvement with this one. Slight edge in a wide open feature. #1 RUN CURTIS RUN was a lively winner first time out in what was a fairly strung out field behind the runner up, and slides in to the pine for today's first try versus winners. #4 SURPRISE BOSS finished just behind the above in the aforementioned affair, so we see no reason to exclude. 

 

 

Race  5

1.Raffinity

2.Gallina

3.Madame Rose

#7 RAFFINITY has been a part of the superfecta in all four starts this year, and that includes an honest placing at this level back in April. Career best effort came over a glib surface, and we'll give this one a tepid nod. #5 GALLINA went extremely wide in the June 13th heat, but still managed a 2nd place finish when facing slightly weaker at BEL, and may be sitting on a good one for today's third start off the pine. #6 MADAME ROSE outran her odds in a big way when a 24-1 runner up in this race on Independence Day, and is eligible to land a share beneath a kid we feel need to strengthen his game a bit. 

 

 

Race  6 

1.G Money Liv

2.Next Tuesday

3.Let's Be Clear

#1 G MONEY LIV begins her professional working life here, and does such with several decent morning moves on the docket. 397 Tommy pops off the page, and from an itty bitty sampling, 14% shedrow is two of four with dirt firsters at this level without Lasix @ 27-1 or less ( $25 & $5 ). Dam wasn't much, but she's produced two ( average ) winners from as many foals, and sire won his first start. #9 NEXT TUESDAY bobbled at the start in the Monmouth debut, but stayed on with it to grab second place money, and as we LOVE Kantharos progeny, we have no qualms about using with Santana getting the call. #6 LET'S BE CLEAR just missed when debuting at CD five weeks in the past & deserves some "ahspect". 

 

 

Race  7

1.Devilish Mood

2.Operative

3.Justintimeforwine

#11 DEVILISH MOOD is hiked up 25% after the June 6th purchase, and as we always like when the pre-claim jockey makes a return appearance, it's encouraging to see Manny Man get legged up once again. Blinks in the mix today, and this one can use with a bit of pace ahead of him. Meeeeeeeekest of choices in a race that we're not really feeling the heat from. #8 OPERATIVE has been gruesome this year, but gets handed over to Summers, who's 1-3 with that happening in a turf route, and said winner came back 74 clams. #4 JUSTINTIMEFORWINE enters today off a career best performance & now gets a big time upgrade in the jockey department.  OFF TURF: 4-10-1-7-8

 

 

Race  8 

1.Alphalfa

2.Analyzethisandthat

3.Fast Getaway

#4 ALPHALFA comes in off of back to back lifetime best efforts ( at two different locales ), and always seems to give a good account of himself, as the nine superfecta finishes in his last zoen races belies. Mild choice. #7 ANALYZETHISANDTHAT has done quite well on both starts off the 19+ month hibernation ( hitting the board in each ) and put forth a game showing when finishing directly behind a next out winner in his lone partnership with Davis, and recognize that this one got his photo taken the only time he was up for sale. #11 FAST GETAWAY rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 3(MTO)-5-4-2-8(MTO)

 

 

Race  9 

1.American Dubai

2.Forza Di Oro

3.Highest Honors

#7 AMERICAN DUBAI positively blitzed similar type the at Oaklawn back in April, and did such to the tune of $31. Eight year old "horse" ( you RUN when you see that vet, buddy boy ! ) by no means disgraced himself when facing stakes foes in the subsequent start, and by and large, has done excellent work @ today's distance of ground, having amassed a 9:3-0-3 boxscore ( 344K ). From a DRF Formulator standpoint, barn clicks at a 5:3-0-1 rate off a 51-55 day layoff, and those winners came back $85, $5 & $6. #2 FORZA DI ORO showed spectacular improvement when coming back off a loooong L/O last year, but after winning his two starts, fell off the radar once again. Must use, but take a gander in the paddock. #3 HIGHEST HONORS makes his 3rd start off the bench today and owns a win over the strip. 

 

 

Race  10

1.Boom Boom Kaboom

2.Sandor Clegane

3.Fast Gordon

#11 BOOM BOOM KABOOM has received the unkindest cut of all after finishing in the back half of the pack after being away for a while, but chestnut chap posted an adjusted 65.7 in his only "third off the L/O" heat, and gets the nod in the nitecap. #7 SANDOR CLEGANE gave a good account of himself in the one and only turf engagement, and rates a puncher's chance if fully cranked up. #4 FAST GORDON was a lively runner up in his one time when up for grabs, and did such while placing right in front of a next out victor. Lightly raced 5YO makes his third start off the sabbatical and should be right there.  OFF TURF: 2-1-7-1A-8  NOTE: AS OF 12:19, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING RUN ON A FAST TRACK, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 7-6-12. 

 

 

Saratoga          ( Current ): 9-41         ( $82.40 )   Beatable Favorites    1-3   ( 33.3% ) Favorites Win %:     15-41    ( 36.6% )   

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 4-27        ( $34.60 )   Beatable Favorites    0-1      ( 0% )   Favorites  Win %:    11-26     ( 42.3% )


Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2923-15087 ($25,472.60)  Beatable Favorites : 371-1361( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5706-15169 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.5%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3008-15655 ($26,291.80)   Beatable Favorites : 386-1429( 27% )   Favorite's Win %: 5889-15756 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


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