KevinCoxItem


Some Monday action cooking here -- our last of such until Labor Day.  


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 7/5

 

Race  1

1.Uni Loves a Fight

2.No Time Alone 

3.Our Tiny Dancer

#7 UNI LOVES A FIGHT begins her working life this afternoon, and does such with a couple'a decent works on the docket while drawing advantageously. This one is a half to a current runner who's gone 16:3-5-3 thus far ( 81K ), and daddy was a multiple graded stakes winner who was one for two on this oval. #6 NO TIME ALONE showed little in the bow, but Ward is known for his prowess with freshmen making this sorta surface switch early on, and April foal is a half to a 4-17 turfer. #5 OUR TINY DANCER posted a bullet gate breeze on Friday, and that's something that always merits inclusion with a firster.  OFF TURF: 4-3(MTO)-7-2-1

 

Race  2

1.Extreme Force

2.Feast

3.Magnificent Chrome

#6 EXTREME FORCE finds himself at his lowest level to date, is one for four when breaking from the outermost two slots ( 0-8 otherwise ), and gets Irad in the irons, who will be spending his last day at Belmont this summer, as he is serving a suspension for the entire last week. #5 FEAST gave up the ghost late in the game when going over the blades for the first time, but likely needed the race after a half'a calendar hibernation. Ridgling is 1 fer 2 on the dirt, and we like that there's no scary drop for the frigid barn. #1 MAGNIFICENT CHROME as good as any for the show dough. 

 

Race  3

1.Bourbon Rising

2.Road to Success

3.Tiz the Journey

#3 BOURBON RISING has a few decent running lines on the sand, and aside from switching back to said surface, could appreciate the blinker removal. Mild choice. After finishing in the back half of the pack in his first try on the gramma, #6 ROAD TO SUCCESS is switched back to what will likely be his best surface down the road, and rates a big shot if able to get back to the dirt debut down in Hallandale Beach. Jockey/Trainer combo have fared better in tandem than apart, and colt should sit a nice stalking trip. #1 TIZ THE JOURNEY may plod along for a piece of the puzzle. 

 

Race  4 

1.Eight Weeks Long

2.Majestic Sky

3.Flintshire's Rock

#4 EIGHT WEEKS LONG has ( for this group ) some steady if unspectacular speed figures, but gets a little bit of post relief, and five returnees from the most recent have gone 5:2-2-0 in their followup ( four different ) engagements. #7 MAJESTIC SKY has been a vastly improved animal since going from brown to green, and finished directly in front of a next out winner when last seen. #5 FLINTSHIRE'S ROCK takes the biggest drop in the game for today's second off the bench jammie, and may come late.  OFF TURF: 6-1-2-8-3

 

Race  5

1.Miss Mi Mi

2.Baby Boss

3.Sweet Mia

#2 MISS MI MI is a popular item at the claim box, having been snagged in 8 of of her last 13 races when eligible for such, and six year old mare also owns a 10:3-1-3 at today's trip. Eligible to rebound off the recent disappointment. #5 BABY BOSS is another who always seems to be changing addresses, and Arriaga charge is another who digs the trip. There's some other speed signed on here, so this one will have precious little time to sort things out early on. #1 SWEET MIA always seems to give a good account of herself, but we'll leave beneath because of the 3% pilot. 

 

Race  6 

1.Red Knight

2.Sadler's Joy

3.Gufo

#1 RED KNIGHT often leaves himself with a lot to do, but despite that, has managed to partake in the exacta in 2/3rd's of his 24 trips to the track. Seven year old has a 4:2-0-1 ledger on the Widener, and Manny gets the assignment. #3 SADLER'S JOY may not get as many wins as he used to, but is a check cashing machine, and eight year old "horse" ( You hang on to those Raisinets, buddy boy ! ) should be right there once again. #6 GUFO crossed the line first the only time he was in a "3rd off the L/O" scenario, and blinkers are now added in an apparent effort to get this one some extra early zip. Hard to knock.  OFF TURF: 1-2-8-7-4

 

Race  7

1.Creative Cairo

2.Sister Otoole

3.Windfall Profit

#4 CREATIVE CAIRO had a tangled beginning when facing victresses for the first time, but under normal circumstances, that's never an easy spot for a maiden breaker, and in all fairness, she only missed the Beyer from the prior start by two points. Rosario gets the call today, and that has some relevance to it, as C-Squared is a whopping 7 for 10 when using Joel on his locally based allowance turf stayers who missed the baccala 1-63 days ago ( $8 x 2, $6, $11, $7, $5 x 2 & $9 ). #2 SISTER OTOOLE sure doesn't need to take her track with her, as gal visits her seventh different venue from eight trips to the track, and may be sitting on a good one in the 3rd start off a L/O. #1 WINDFALL PROFIT has been a part of the superfecta in 8 of 9, and may be better served if able to get back to his rating tactics this afternoon.  OFF TURF: 2-4-6-8-7

 

Race  8 

1.Snow House

2.First Captain

3.Riden With Biden

#5 SNOW HOUSE has won two straight while improving with each passing start, the most recent of which coming in hi first try going over a fast track. 384 Tomlinson for today's distance of ground tells us that there's ample room for improvement, and after the 46 & 2 shown in Churchill last out, we're expecting this one to be on the shoo choo early in an effort to bottom out the quartet. #2 FIRST CAPTAIN has a lot of wood to chop in order to get back that $1,500,000 purchase price, but is off to a good start, having won in both outings to date. January bred showed some mettle when winning an A1X at the May, and lands in a fairly soft spot for his first graded try. #4 RIDEN WITH BIDEN ( cross entered yesterday ) shoots for the hat trick, and aside from the flop when stumbling at the start, has really come along nicely. 

 

Race  9 

1.Day's Humor

2.Proper Grammar

3.Train to Artemus

#9 DAY'S HUMOR was a lively runner up at this level when trying the verde for the 1st time, and given this one's decent turf pedigree, we're seeing another positive effort coming forth today. Slimmest of margins in a race with no first draft eliminations. #8 PROPER GRAMMAR regressed in a big way when being tossed into the deep end of the pool on June 19th, and is promptly put back in for 40 large while getting reacquainted with the wonder drug. Including, but not without some trepidation. #7 TRAIN TO ARTEMUS has a "For Sale" sticker attached to her tooshie for the first time, and zippy gal who hasn't been seen since turkey time now has Lasix administered. Logical.  OFF TURF: 2-5-7-4(MTO)-1 

 

Belmont            ( Current ):  63-406     ( $450.60 )  Beatable Favorites    7-26   ( 26.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    150-406  ( 37% ) ( As of Monday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 4-25         ( $34.60 )   Beatable Favorites    0-1      ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:     10-25     ( 40% )


Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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