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Fared well with our "unders" yesterday, as we had the following...

--Five Rolling Doubles of $17, $10, $386, $106 & $41

--Four exacta boxes of $8, $147, $62 & $43

--A $417 Triple Box

--Two Rolling Pick Threes of $37 & $2,259 

 

Have a SAFE day today, everyone, and NO drinking and driving !!

As always, if track reverts to fast, original selections in play.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #2 Daddy Knows


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 7/4 - Happy Independence Day

 

Race  1

1.True Castle 

2.Gone Glimmering

3.Anna's Fast

#4 TRUE CASTLE is an extremely consistent sort who has changed addresses after four of her last five starts when eligible for such, and despite having been kept in jail since the last purchase, is stepped up a couple'a notches this afternoon. Difficult to argue with the 11:4-4-2 mark at the distance, and Irad sees fit to ride. #2 GONE GLIMMERING is another one stepping up after a May claim, and win machine has done good work on Big Sandy, and we're expecting another good effort. #3 ANNA'S FAST appears to be the clear speed of this deal, and they'll have to grab her by the tail to get the glory.   NOTE: AS OF 11:18, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 2-3-4.

 

Race  2

1.Hoopla

2.Soar

3.Tariff War

#1 HOOPLA has a few nice works on display for today's career starter, and has a precipitous maturity edge on the rest of the grouping, being a four year old running against sophomores. Dam won her only start on the poly ( which we feels translates well to the turf ), and sire was 3:2-0-1 over the stuff as well. #3 SOAR ( the other Mott ) has been getting some decent foundation for the overture, what with works at Payson, Oklahoma, & the turf, and aside from going 2 1/2 times the stud fee at auction, is extremely well bred for this deal. #7 TARIFF WAR finished up decently to close out the superfecta down at CD, and while he may be a touch overbet today, we'll chunk in.  OFF TURF: 3-1-2-7-6

 

Race  3

1.Decreed

2.Prairie Tales

3.Ruthless Gal

#11 DECREED was a rare "turf claim" by Randi Persaud two back, and although she bested but one in her first start afterwards, the figures earned from that and the other turf outing are comparable to just about all signed on, and with a tidier trip, we can see this one outrunning her odds today. #7 PRAIRIE TALES got smacked around a bit at the onset before flashing some early speed, and can move up in today's second start after a nine month sabbatical. #12 RUTHLESS GAL has shown little to date, and is now dropped down to the purchase price in an effort to shake things up a bit. Nit really sure that this one will be meant for the turf down the road ( given the 199 Tomlinson figure ), but we'll accord her one more chance on the stuff.  OFF TURF: 9-6-3-5-4(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 11:22, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.  NOT: AS OF 12:13, DUE TO AN ERROR AT 11:22, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS ARE 2-4-6.

 

Race  4 

1.Baby I'm Perfect

2.Here Comes Doc

3.Kumar

#4 BABY I'M PERFECT owns loads of early zip, has partaken in the superfecta in three of four when going 2X to 1X, and Breen gets the green with second off the claim mid level dirt dashers who missed the baccala 18-50 days back, with payouts of $5, $7 & $12. #3 HERE COMES DOC is a bit of a nibbler by rote, and that includes 5 ITM finishes from eight tries at the distance. #5 KUMAR has a two of four ledger at BEL -- compared to being 3 of 18 otherwise -- and that's reason enough to include.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #2 DADDY KNOWS

 

Race  5

1.Federalist Papers

2.The Ginger Queen ( Ire )

3.Except Temptation

#2 FEDERALIST PAPERS has been beset by back to back layoff lines after as many races, but is up for grabs in this spot, while having blinkers slapped on for the first time. You'd have to assume the quarter of a million dollar purchase will be fully cranked today for an owner who could care less about losing the bread. #5 THE GINGER QUEEN (IRE) gets a big time jockey change after placing down in Wilmington 20 days back, and may fare even better going over firm ground for just the second time. #9 EXCEPT TEMPTATION is back in w/ maiden platers after flopping at the special weight level on May 20th, and was a willing runner up behind a next out winner in the penultimate try.  OFF TURF: 4-7-2-1(MTO)-3(MTO)

 

Race  6 

1.Beckenbauer

2.Camouflaged Kisser

3.Point of Humor

#10 BECKENBAUER has only beaten five home in his quartet of heats this year, but we like the improved speed shown in the most recent, and gelding does in fact have a couple of nice adjusted figaros in two of his three sprints on the sod. #2 CAMOUFLAGED KISSER has a decent overall body of work ( for this group), and although professional maiden territory is right around the corner, we'll give him a shot to get Keith O'Brien his first win. #5 POINT OF HUMOR gets an appreciable trainer upgrade for his first start in 10 1/2 months, and returns sans tes-tee-klees. Factor if fully cranked up.  OFF TURF: 10-3-7-2-1  NOTE: AS OF 11:26, #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Bustin Bay

2.Bustinmygroove

3.Blue Paynt

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #4 BUSTIN BAY is just about halved in price by new owner/trainer Rudy Rod, and three year old filly won by a country mile in her lone start at this tricky distance. Uncharacteristic bullet breeze on display for today's return, and J/T combination have done okay together. #1 BUSTINMYGROOVE can complete the "Bustin" exacta, based on the three in the money finishes when breaking from the innermost two posts, as well as being at his lowest level thus far & getting in with a feather. No worse than 3rd for all you show punters out there. #9 BLUE PAYNT rounds out the triple.  NOTE: AS OF 11:30, DUE TO A KEY SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-9-2.

 

Race  8 

1.Holiday Stone

2.Reux ( GB )

3.Maxwell Esquire

#7 HOLIDAY STONE got the job done at the level just below this 22 days in the rear, bringing up her record on the inner to 2:1-0-1, and we see no reason a repeat isn't doable vs. theses. Slight edge in a race with but one first draft elimination. #3 REUX (GB) played the late fade when making his American debut back in mid May, but may have needed the race, and you should know that this one found the line first in his only "second off the layoff" jammie. #1 MAXWELL ESQUIRE is one of two right here and got his Polaroid taken the only time he was in this type of L.O scenario; 2:1-1-0 mark with Irad astride adds to the allure.  OFF TURF: 4-5-7-2-1  NOTE: AS OF 11:34, DUE TO ASCRATCH, THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  9 

1.Ridin With Biden

2.Original

3.Like the King

Today's big turf event is named after the Hall of Famer Manila, and for some history on this wonderful turf runner, please go right here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manila_(horse) .  As for the race itself, we'll give the nod to #7 RIDIN WITH BIDEN. Robert Reid runner ships in from Philadelphia Park in pursuit of the hat trick, and despite this one going over the blades for the 1st time, we say it's definitely within his grasp, given the solid pedigree for such. There's a dearth of speed signed on, and this one can stalk, or perhaps get to the top if the rail horse fails to break alertly. #5 ORIGINAL has hit the board in each & every turf start and is 3rd off the bench while getting Lasix for the second time. #3 LIKE THE KING ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) went coast to coast like butter and toast in his only start on firm ground and deserves your respect.  OFF TURF: 3-4-1-2-8  NOTE: AS OF 11:38, DUE TO A KEY SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR TOP SELECTION.  AS OF 12:39, #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD CHOICE.

 

Race  10

1.Firenze Fire

2.Mind Control

3.Wicked Trick

#1 FIRENZE FIRE is two for two this year, 4 for 7 when breaking from the innermost three slots in dashes, 7 for 10 in Elmont, and looms a deserving, heavy favorite in the day's feature. In the FWIW department, the top three finishers from this one's debut wayyyyyyyy back when, are all still in action, amassing a cumulative record of 110: 41-20-13, with the $3 million mark being breeched with a tally here. #2 MIND CONTROL has been switched over to The Toddster's barn since last seen, and classy sort is displaying a quick breeze for today's return, and has done well at this dx.. #5 WICKED TRICK has encountered a bit of trouble in his last pair, and can land a share with a smooth ride.  NOTE: AS OF 11:42, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, #3 WILL BE OUR THIRD CHOICE.

  
Belmont            ( Current ):  62-396     ( $446.20 )  Beatable Favorites    7-25    ( 28% )  Favorites   Win %:    146-396  ( 36.9% ) ( As of Sunday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 4-25         ( $34.60 )   Beatable Favorites    0-1      ( 0% )   Favorites  Win %:     10-25     ( 40% )


Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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