Just a couple of chalky winners for us here yesterday. 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For exapmple, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 9/22


Race  1

1.Blu Grotto

2.Cumberland Blues

3.Brooklyn Diamonds

#7 BLU GROTTO has been beset by three consecutive "true" layoff lines, but finds himself at his lowest level to date, totes the lightest impost of his working life, and hit the board the only time he was last to load over a glib surface. From a trainer stat aspect, Rudy Rod has scored with half of his six second off the claim, locally based mid level sand stock off breaks of 51-211 days ( 12-1 pr less ). The winners came back a healthy $12, $5 & $21, and there's a sub category of 2-3 with males. #7 CUMBERLAND BLUES has been kept in jail since the August 3rd snag, and returns back at the level from that day's showing, while cutting back from two turns to one. That last part is of some relevance, as this one closed out the tri the only time he did such, and note that the best work has come at today's distance of ground ( 2 for 6 compared to being 0-7 otherwise. #2 BROOKLYN DIAMONDS found the line first in his only one turn deal, and that's reason enough to incorporate. 


Race  2

1.Talkin Pharoah


3.Rock the Weekend

These three, and only these three for all our rolling action. #6 TALKIN PHAROAH has gone 60-78-82 in his three dirt starts to date where Beyers were posted ( two wins & a 3rd place finish ), so right off the bat, who knows where his ceiling is in that regards. Not quite sure why they messed with a good thing with another turf try, as this one flopped in his only other start over the stuff, and is now properly back on the main. Shedrow owns a three fer eight record when going green to brown with AQU based entrants at this level who missed the money < 54 days back ( 15-1 or undah ), and the winners came back $8, $4 & $7 ( with a  sub cat of 1-1 beneath Jose ). #3 KUPP has won two of three and gets in w/a bug for the 1st time. #2 ROCK THE WEEKEND was photogenic in his one and only dash, and the only way the connections show a ( $2,400 est. ) profit should another claim ensue would be with a tally, so expect this one to be fully cranked up. 


Race  3

1.Brink Me a Check

2.Nothing Better 

3.Today's Flavor

Another heat where our listed troika should suffice.  #2 BRING ME A CHECK ( who should be no worse than 3rd, for all you show punters out there ) has hit the board in seven consecutive affairs, fell short by less than a length @ 20-1 the only time he went from a 2 turn turf deal to a 1 turn sod event, and is 4:2-1-1 when going into the starting apparatus first. Gelding should dig the class relief off a strong effort in the Bernard Baruch. #1 NOTHING BETTER lacked his usual sustained zip in a Jersey stakes on July 22nd, but is two of three off the bench in grass heats, and has that same mark in Ozone Park ( with one of those wins overlapping, which happened to come beneath Franco in their lone pairing ). #4 TODAY'S FLAVOR went coast to coast like butter and toast in his sole "2nd off the bench" jamboree, and although this one is not particularly well bred for the green stuff, sometime's a runner's speed can carry them a long way before they realize what the hell they're on.  OFF TURF: 7-6-1-3-1A(MTO)


Race  4

1.Roja Ligera

2.High School Crush

3.Sweet as Sugar

#9 ROJA LIGERA has been kept in prison since being claimed by Gus on the 6th of August, and although smartly transitioned back to the gramma, would need a win on today's dropdown for the new owners to merely break even, should another purchase ensue. Obvious threat if able to get back to the penultimate try, that's a big if. Take a looksie in the paddock. #5 HIGH SCHOOL CRUSH has been away for nearly 2/3rd's of a calendar, but notorious nibbler has been in the tri five of six times after a break in the action, and that 83.5% rate stands out smartly against his 24.2% rate in all other starts. #4 SWEET AS SUGAR is one of three in third off the bench affairs, race, shall we ? 


Race  5

1.Dream Canteen

2.Bad Larry

3.Munny for Nuthin

#9 DREAM CANTEEN is the only maiden in this group who hasn't lost yet, which of course means he hasn't raced yet, but hey, there's that. The listed workouts are honest enough, and the 395 Tomlinson for the dist. is much better than average. Of the five upstairs members of the family tree, two won the bows, one scored in the followup, and one was victorious third time out. Would be no shocker vs. this grouping. #2 BAD LARRY outran his parimutuel offering when completing the triple against somewhat tougher at the end of August, and must be included because of such. #6 MUNNY FOR NUTHIN is a four year old facing mostly younger critters going one turn for the first time & may jazz things up at a price. 


Race  6

1.Biloxi Blues



Backers of #7 BILOXI BLUES were yelling "Ho yes !!" when this one got up in time down in Virginia, and after that graduation day, seems nicely spotted in facing veterans for the first time. Oh, hell, loyal readers have likely caught the references made above, so how 'bout a movie clip !!  #4 PENTAGON has proven to be a very versatile sort in showing five sides to himself in his dozen starts to date -- wet track, dry track, firm turf, soft turf, and poly -- and has hit the board more often than not. Sensible addition. #1A TANGENTIAL has improved with each passing start, and despite a regression being possible, we would be tangential in not including this one because of the potent connections.  OFF TURF: 5-1-2-3-1A


Race  7



3.Proud Foot

#3 MURSAL immolated a bit of bread when getting smacked around a bit at the onset 41 days in the rear, but can make amends with a tidier onset, and looms to be a 1-2 player for those who play to place. #1 FREUDIAN appears best suited to upset the apple couch -- errrr... cart -- here, based on his 5:2-3-0 dirt mark preceding the recent flopola. Jock Maddie Rowland comes in for the ride, and she's better than her stats belie. #4 PROUD FOOT rounds out the top three. 


Race  8

1.Runaway Rumour


3.New Ginya

We're not really feeling the heat here, so tread lightly.  #3 RUNAWAY RUMOUR has pretty much been a steady sort over her last nonet ( 9:1-2-4 ), and although that appears to be nibbling in it's nature, it's enough reason for us to settle on this miss. That being said, we won't be betting serious money on this competitive feature, and wouldn't begrudge you for doing the same. #1 WHATLOVELOOKSLIKE had her three race win streak snapped with no palpable excuse up in 'Toga Town last month, but as Bad Santa says, "Well they can't all be winners, can they?". Filly has been a gem of consistency otherwise, and that includes efforts on the Inner, and when loading first. #2 NEW GINYA is another steady sort who who must be left in the mix.  OFF TURF: 4-9(MTO)-6-10(MTO)-8(MTO)


Race  9

1.Reverend Moon


3.Prospero ( Ire )

#5 REVEREND MOON improved by about 15.2% in the adjusted BSF department from his first start to the followup, and now catches firm going for the first time for a barn backed by a solid DRF Formulator statistic. Over the last 60 months, C-Squared is a tight 8:5-1-1-1 with maiden special weight sod sprinters who crashed the fiesta less than three fortnights back at 7-1 or beneath ( no wonder drug ). Those winners came back $4 x 3, $7 & $15, and what we need is a clean trip from Joel. #1 FELTRINELLI put forth an honest showing right outta the box, and is just as nicely bred for the verde as the sandy stuff, so we're expecting another goodie. #10 PROSPERO (IRE) is extremely well bred for this sorta deal and Prat/Abreu have fared well better together than apart.  OFF TURF: 8-6-7-5-3 


Aqueduct         ( Current ): 11-47  ( $83.90 )   Beatable Favorites:   0-6 ( 0% )       Favorites Win %:  14-47    ( 29.8% )( As of Friday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ):  9-31 ( $75.90 )   Beatable  Favorites:  N/A                  Favorites Win %:  8-28       ( 28.6% )


Saratoga:           ( Final ): 87-409  ( $821  )     Beatable  Favorites:  4-21 ( 19.1% )Favorites Win %: 147-409 ( 35.9% )   

Belmont:             ( Final ): 87-368  ( $632.90 ) Beatable  Favorites:  8-32 ( 25% )  Favorites Win %: 140-368 ( 38% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 29-154  ( $236.10 ) Beatable Favorites:   1-3 ( 33.3% ) Favorites Win %:  58-154 ( 37.7% ) 

Aqueduct             ( Final ): 97-370  ( $639.10 ) Beatable  Favorites: 9-24( 37.5% ) Favorites Win %: 139-370 ( 37.6% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2022 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568           ( $819.20 ) Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-23 (All Final):3864-19269  ($32,796.80) Beatable Favorites : 447-1655( 27% )   Favorite's Win %: 7257-19372( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 3948-19837 ( $33,597.40 )Beatable Favorites : 458-1702( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7273-19550( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.5%  against a 16.7% takeout