We finished up Opening Week with a flat bet profit, , and we also had four Exacta Boxes of $17, $97, $69 & $55, a $37 Quinella Box, two Triple Boxes of $61 & $132, five Rolling Doubles of $26, $86, $24, $34 & $9, and three Rolling Pick Threes of $387, $40 & $90.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 8 - #5 Perfect Munnings

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 9/21


Race  1

1.Wonder Wonderland

2.Mischief Joke


#5 WONDER WONDERLAND becomes a professional today, and although the worktab is uninspiring, we see that three upstairs members of the family tree scored at first asking, with two more winning their followups. The only time this trainer sent out a firster at this level who wasn't receiving Lasix -- ridden by Rivera -- a $20 winner was the end result. Oh yeah, J/T combo are 2 of 5 with one turn dirt stock, and those winners came back the aforementioned 20 clams, and nine bucks. #4 MISCHIEF JOKE is all kinds of logical in this spot, but is also the type of animal that we loathe putting on top, as he is giving the impression of becoming a professional maiden. No worse than 3rd, for all you show grinders out there. #3 PERLIANO has been gelded since the most recent, and makes his second start on the dirt.


Race  2

1.Business Model

2.Best Actor

3.Sheriff Bianco

#1 BUSINESS MODEL rallied strongly to win in going away fashion when facing slightly softer on Bijou Day, and fella owns a nifty 5:3-1-0 record at today's distance of ground. Logical, despite the class hike. #3 BEST ACTOR has yet to finish out of the super, owns a modicum of back class, and won by four the only time he cut back from two turns to one. Prat chilly on the stand, but has done well for this clan. #4 SHERIFF BIANCO has only missed the superfecta but once in 25 outings, and what that includes a delovely 10:4-4-2 ledger in Ozone Park. Obvious factor w/a tidier sojourn. 


Race  3

1.Classic Mark

2.Mystic Night

3.Lookin at Roses

#4 CLASSIC MARK went coast to coast like butter and toast vs. conditional platers on August 24th, and ended up in a new barn afterwards, as Rice was having a fire sale in an all out effort to win the trainer title. Present shotcaller, Gus, won both times he bought a critter and spotted them in a dirt route ( 6-50 days ), and the mutuels were $7 & $14. #7 MYSTIC NIGHT is three of four at The Big A, and that stands out against his woeful 1-17 mark otherwise. Gelding is reunited with Franco today, and that's highly relevant, he's guided this one to a 5:3-2-0 record when astride. #5 LOOKIN AT ROSES is in excellent form these days, and well traveled sort doesn't need to take his track with him, as he starts on his 13th different strip from 42 calls to the post.


Race  4

1.Call Me Harry

2.Kuramata ( Ire )


#7 CALL ME HARRY is a very zippy sort who is claim protected after the claim more than a month ago, and is reunited with Javy, under whom he's amassed a 4:2-0-0-2 boxscore. Threat to gall all the way if able to coast along out there early on. #2 KURAMATA (IRE) is a sprinter who's failed to make the tri over his last quintet, but before you dismiss this one at hand in the first routing deal, we've seen failing dashers get brave out there when stretching out, and the pedigree ain't half bad for today's 2nd turn. #6 WINFROMWITHIN is another who's fleet ahoof, and although he's been away for more than seven flips of the calendar, we're assuaged by the two fer four record off a respite. Bay boy is also 2-3 at today's dist., and totes the lightest impost of his working life.  OFF TURF: 6-4-5-1-2


Race  5

1.Dreaming of Mo

2.Fancy Stax

3.You Only Live Once

#8 DREAMING OF MO is the only firster in this bunch, which of course means she hasn't lost, right ? $150,000 bred animal went for nearly 5X that amount in Toga Town two years back, and three members of the family tree won their debuts, with two more winning their second and third outings. Maternal grandsire excelled on the turf/poly, and from a small sampling, Carlito is two of six with firsters going short on the sod, and the winners came back a healthy $32 & $13. Note the sub category of 1-1 with Joel aboard a mdspwt. runner. #10 FANCY STAX overcame some trouble to outrun her odds when showing in her lone turf dash, and rates a chance on the cutback. #4 YOU ONLY LIVE ONCE ( surprisingly, not by Carpe Diem ) is another pricey auction purchase who can be any kind.  OFF TURF: 12-5-7-9-2


Race  6

1.Two Thirty Five

2.Salto de Tigre

3.Forty Two Ace

#1A TWO THIRTY FIVE is still cashing checks at a decent level in this, the tail end of his nine year old year, and unfairly, will no longer be able to race on this circuit come New Year's Day. Geding is still a popular item at the claim box, and has done some fine work at today's trip. Mild selection. #2 SALTO DE TIGRE is a check earning fool, as this fella has gamely hit the board in his last 11 treks to the frontside. Has only cut back from 2X to 1X but once, but that was an honest showing, and jock has some familiarity w/ this one. #8 FORTY TWO ACE is back in for a quarter after flopping in both starts since being snagged back in May, and gelding is two of three in second off the shelf engagements ( with one of those tallies coming underneath Rosario. 


Race  7

1.Freedom Trail

2.Exact Estimate

3.Francesco Clemente ( Ire )

#5 FREEDOM TRAIL gets some much needed class relief ( along with a brief rest ) after a humdrum affair down in Wilmington back in mid July, and loses the eye cups as well. Terranova does quite well when enlisting the services of Jose ( 17:5-3-2-2, $4.66 ROI ), and said helmsman guided this one to a maiden breaking victory in the overture. #1 EXACT ESTIMATE was awful in the July 20th deal, but there's a best of 37 bullet in the holster for today's return, and Irad sees fit to climb back aboard. Colt is one of two off the pine and must be left in the hopper. #8 FRANCESCO CLEMENTE (IRE) ( an Italian contemporary artist, who's bio can be found right here ) lost by only a neck in his sole "true" ( "It's twue. It's twue, it's twue !" ) start after a sabbatical, and like just about all Euro shippers, has never been in this light -- or in receipt of today's wonder drug. Watch the board with this uncoupled entrymate with 'Estimate.  OFF TURF: 5-3-4-1-2


Race  8

1.Horn of Plenty

2.Big Engine

3.Radio Red

#1 HORN OF PLENTY is aggressively hiked up in class for today's 3rd start off the layoff, has been in the superfecta all three times off of that kind of a break, and is reacquainted with blinks while drawing snugly. Slimmest of choices in a race with just one who was chunked after the first draft. #8 BIG ENGINE owns a groovy "declining" record in Queens ( 19:6-3-2 ), which tells us that he knows where the finish line is here, and while usable, had a claim voided last time out, so it would behoove you to take a long gander during the warmup. #6 RADIO RED owns a win & a runner up finish in as many "2nd off the shelf" jamborees, and the victory happened to come right at this locale. If you can forgive the Gotham, this one is on a nice little run over his last foursome.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 PERFECT MUNNINGS


Race  9

1.A Lister

2.Screw Loose


If there was ever a race that screamed "Shoot for a price.", it would be this one. Ten of twelve in the body of the race are going from turf to dirt, seven of the twelve recently lost at 8-1 or less, the cumulative turf record is 25:M-3-3 ( with no superstars ), so why would you "land on" a low priced animal here ?  Either pass, or swing away. We're going to do just that with the #8 A LISTER. Although this grey gelding has bested but eight in nine starts to date, with maidens, we use ANY relevant running line in their P.P.'s, as they're winless for a a reason, you know. This one posted an adjusted 64.4 on this course nearly a year ago to the day, ( at 74-1 ), and today's jock made us look as smart as Wile E. Coyote when scoring in a turf route with Won't Be Missed a few summers ago, to the tune of $96. We were all over an Edmund longshot a couple'a Saratogas ago, when while leading by more than seven lengths mid stretch, for some reason decided to go over the rail at boxcar odds ( NURSE !! ). He was fine, but we weren't. Bombs away !  #3 SCREW LOOSE had just that prior to the off the turf event in Saratoga this summer, but deserves a shot here, given the upwards trajectory of those turf figures. #11 MYLES as bad as any for the show dough.  OFF TURF: 6-16(MTO)-3-4-10


Aqueduct         ( Current ):  9-38  ( $76.10 )   Beatable Favorites:   0-5 ( 0% )       Favorites Win %:  11-38      ( 24.1% )( As of Thursday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ):  9-31 ( $75.90 )   Beatable  Favorites:  N/A                  Favorites Win %:  8-28       ( 28.6% )


Saratoga:           ( Final ): 87-409  ( $821  )     Beatable  Favorites:  4-21 ( 19.1% )Favorites Win %: 147-409 ( 35.9% )   

Belmont:             ( Final ): 87-368  ( $632.90 ) Beatable  Favorites:  8-32 ( 25% )  Favorites Win %: 140-368 ( 38% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 29-154  ( $236.10 ) Beatable Favorites:   1-3 ( 33.3% ) Favorites Win %:  58-154 ( 37.7% ) 

Aqueduct             ( Final ): 97-370  ( $639.10 ) Beatable  Favorites: 9-24( 37.5% ) Favorites Win %: 139-370 ( 37.6% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2022 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568           ( $819.20 ) Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-23 (All Final):3864-19269  ($32,796.80) Beatable Favorites : 447-1655( 27% )   Favorite's Win %: 7257-19372( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 3948-19837 ( $33,597.40 )Beatable Favorites : 458-1702( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7273-19550( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.5%  against a 16.7% takeout