Chalky day yesterday, as we had but one winner, two cold Quinellas of $14 & $12, two Exacta reverses of $26 & $22, and seven profitable Rolling Doubles. 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #5 Winter's Lion  Race 9 - #4 Inflation Adjusted 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 5/27


Race  1

1.Al's Frosted

2.Talkin Pharoah 

3.Shakin the Belle

#7 AL'S FROSTED ( named in part after the man who pays the bills ) has three smartly spaced bullet breezes on the docket for today's initial foray, owns a nice Tommy for today's distance of ground ( 380 ), has a maturity edge over the entire field, and two of the five family upstairs family members we were able to dig up, scored at first asking. Chestnut chap draws well, but even with a win & a claim, connections of this $100,000 purchase stand to loose a boatload of bread, so you'd have to think this one will be fully cranked up. #6 TALKIN PHAROAH has hit the board in both dirt starts to date, and after being kept in jail since the purchase last month, is dropped in class 20%, and loses the eye cups for today's second off the L/O attempt, while going from a bug to a journeyman. #5 SHAKIN THE BELLE hasn't shown a whole heck of a lot in the mornings for the overture, but four of his older relatives went 4:2-1-1 first time out, and needn't be much to make an impression here. 


Race  2

1.Night Jumper

2.Dripping Gold


#3 NIGHT JUMPER has been alternating losses and wins over his last septet, so today should be a tally, right ? If only the game was that simple. What we do like is the 2:1-1-0 mark in 3rd off the layoff engagements, and said placing came in one of his four starts when made available of purchase. J/T combo are 3:1-1-0-1 with those off breaks of less than 100 days ( $9 ), and we'll go with the "Short field/Big price" runner. #1 DRIPPING GOLD placed by less than a length the only time he was in a third off the shelf scenario, and curiously, this one received the unkindest cut of all after the recent tally. Logical. #2 DAUNT has a 4:1-1-0 ledger on the ITC, and has fared well beneath Javy.  OFF TURF: 1-5-2-3-6(MTO)


Race  3

1.Yorkshire Prince

2.Mr Flowers

3.Mischievous Angel

#3 YORKSHIRE PRINCE put forth a lifetime best figaro when going over the gramma for the first time, and although it's curious to see Franco get the heave ho here, Castellano is a capable substitute, and the decent turf pedigree tells us that the result that day was likely not an aberration. From a DRF Formulator standpoint, barn is a tight 4:3-1-0 with second time routers on the sod, who hit the board 17-67 days in the rear ( 17-1 or less ), with the winners coming back $14, $9 & $6, and there's a sub category of 2-2 w/ this pilot. #4 MR FLOWERS gets his working papers here, and dam was onf of five over the green stuff. Dismiss connections at your own peril. #7 MISCHIEVOUS ANGEL ( uncoupled barnmate with the above ) is another taking an afternoon trek to the frontside for the first time, and $600,000 Toga purchase is entered for a $75,000 tag right outta the box ( Yikes. ), and while you should exercise some caution, note that the dam placed in her one and only turf start.  OFF TURF: 6-5-2-7-1  NOTE: AS OF 11:59, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.  NOTE TO ALL @SaratogaBets, @BataviaBets, @YonkersRaceway & @capitalotb READERS: Due to a gate scratch in Race 3, #2 will be our 3rd selection.


Race  4

1.Smooth Flyin Mike


3.Alternate Reality

#7 SMOOTH FLYIN MIKE was nicely spotted in his first try vs. winners at Philadelphia Park, as he fought gamely for a decentlly clear runner up finish ( something that's not always easy to accomplish ). From a trainer stat POV, 17% outfit has won with more than half of their male optional dirt dashers who crashed the fiesta less than three fortnights back ( 11-1 or undah ), as they're 7 of 13 with that sort ( $4.35 R.O.I. ). #2 THUNDERIAN has hit the board in all four starts since transferring barns and seems poised to do the same once again. #4 ALTERNATE REALITY lit up the tote board with a snazzy maiden breaker on 4/21, and has fired off a best of 68 move since then.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 WINTERS LION fills the bill, as Sharp is not that with those fitting today's criteria ( 0-7 ). 


Race  5

1.Double Dream

2.Utilization Rate ( Fr )


#2 DOUBLE DREAM is displaying a nicely tucked away bullet gate move for this afternoon's bow, and although this one appears to be better bred for the sand at first glance ( Verrazano & El Padrino are a pair of sibs ), we see Giant's Causeway on the dam side, and Brown is 2-5 with those fitting ALL this criteria ( any age of jock ). Mild choice in a heat with no first draft eliminations. #6 UTILIZATION RATE (FR) ( uncoupled barnmate w/the above ) fought the good fight second time out and switches back to Irad. #3 ZAPPERA outran her 13-1 offering when losing by just a length and a half in the debut last month and is eligible to improve with that under her girthstrap.  OFF TURF: 3-2-4-8(MTO)-6


Race  6

1.Happy Farm

2.Majority Partner

3.Colonel Bowman

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #2 HAPPY FARM is an extremely consistent 9YO who is STILL cashing plenty of checks ( in the super in 12 of his last 13 ), has a fantastic 12:6-4-1 "declining" mark at Big Sandy, and is a PERFECT 5 for 5 when first to load on a fast track. We grab the Pepto when landing on a Cancel with a rail animal, but this one should be no worse than 3rd for those looking to grind out a show profit. #5 MAJORITY PARTNER is on an 8:4-3-1 run, and what the hell's wrong with that ?  #3 COLONEL BOWMAN has been "miraculous" since being handed over to Jacobsen, as he's gone 6:5-0-1 since -- after going 5:1-1-0 just prior. Hard to fault. 


Race  7

1.Love Appeals

2.American Apple

3.Queen Picasso ( GB )

Featured race of the day is upon us, and it's a competitive one, so tread lightly.  #2 LOVE APPEALS was an extremely convincing victress when going short for the first time in Ozone Park, and on the whole, this one has ascended the Beyer ladder over each & every start. Deserving favorite in dropping weight off that win ( something we always dig ). #3 AMERICAN APPLE is two of five going short on the sod, and gal doesn't need to take her track with her, as this is her 6th different venue from nine starts to date. #4 QUEEN PICASSO (GB) got the job done at first asking down in Hallandale Beach, and six returnees from that affair came back to amass a cumulative 6:2-3-0-1 boxscore in their next tries, with ALL of them improving by an average of 6.5 pts. per.  OFF TURF: 5-3-4-1-2  NOTE: AS OF 12:03, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  8

1.Dust Devil

2.Glory Road

3.Pit Boss

#8 DUST DEVIL has won three of his last six with a "For Sale" sticker attached to his butt, and has always done nice work at today's trip. 3-1 is a bit short, but fella rates a good chance with a tidy sojourn. #6 GLORY ROAD has gone win-loss-win-loss over his last ten outings, and was victorious the only time he was entered at this price or less. We'll be using, but once again, the price is hard to swallow. #4 PIT BOSS went all the way @ the level just below this on the 4th of the month ( her only start on this strip ) and rates a chance if able to set some easy splits once again. 


Race  9

1.Mo Z

2.Fighter in the Win

3.Hold the Salsa

#7 MO Z hasn't faced the starter in a pair of Christmases, but won his first grass event just before being sent to the sidelines, and returns in a good barn, who takes off the blinkers, while enlisting the services of their go-to pilot. Timid choice. #6 FIGHTER IN THE WIN owns a win & a placing in both second off the bench spins on the turf/poly ( with the latter beneath today's jockola ) and deserves a chance to make amends in getting back on a firm course. #2 HOLD THE SALSA lost by less than five the only time he went long on the lawn, and we always like to give a runner two shots under a particular set of circumstances before discounting. Toss in at a price.  OFF TURF: 1-6-3-4-7  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 INFLATION ADJUSTED will be led over by an hombre who's 0-9 with locally based allowance turf routers who were 1-2-3 off absences of 45 days or lowah ( < 14-1 ).  NOTE: AS OF 12:07, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  10

1.Snowy Evening 

2.Spinning Colors

3.Loon Cry

#11 SNOWY EVENING completed the exacta at 30-1 in a near identical placement seven weeks back, and switches from Vargas to Velazquez here. We'll bite at 10-1. #8 SPINNING COLORS hasn't been in action since turkey time, but is a touch better bred for the green than the brown, and gets the miracle drug for the 1st time. Could jazz things up beneath. #9 LOON CRY has hit the board in all three starts, but is a bit of a money burner, so we'll leave underneath.  OFF TURF: 10-5-16(MTO)-6-2


Belmont:              22-123 ( $126.90 ) Beatable  Favorites:  2-9 ( 22.2% ) Favorites Win %: 44-123 ( 35.8% )( As of Saturday morning )

Graded Stakes:   7-28     ( $58.30 )   Beatable  Favorites:  N/A                Favorites Win %:  8-28    ( 28.6% )


Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 29-154  ( $236.10 ) Beatable Favorites:   1-3 ( 33.3% ) Favorites Win %:   58-154  ( 37.7% ) 

Aqueduct             ( Final ):97-370  ( $639.10 ) Beatable  Favorites: 9-24( 37.5% )  Favorites Win %:  139-370 ( 37.6% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2022 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568           ( $819.20 ) Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-23 (All Final):3690-18492  ($31,342.90) Beatable Favorites : 435-1602( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 6970-18595( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.2%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 3774-19120 ( $32,155.50 )Beatable Favorites : 450-1668( 27% )   Favorite's Win %: 6980-18809( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout