KevinCoxItem


We're 199:51-29-30 on the stand ( $398 Bet/$498 Returned ), as we're guaranteed a flat bet profit until at least February 6th. 

Additionally, we've had winners on 20 of 22 days, and multiple winners on 18 of 22 cards.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): ( Odds not posted as of 10:12 A.M. Friday )


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 1/30

 

Race  1

1.Inouaintalkintome

2.Reeley Psyched

3.Phenomenal Woman

#3 INOUAINTALKINTOME has hit the board in both starts since being switched over to the brown stuff, and we're not quite sure what gets him over the hump today, but making her 3rd start off the bench can't hurt. #6 REELEY PSYCHED has partaken in the superfecta in every dirt start to date, and while she makes sense, she's beginning to acquire that look of a professional maiden. #2 PHENOMENAL WOMAN completed the triple in her lone start over a glib surface, and the 356 Tommy tells us that was likely not an aberration.

 

Race  2

1.Lady By Choice 

2.Stefanie On Fleek 

3.Indian Bella 

#1 LADY BY CHOICE blew up the tote board when going coast to coast like butter and toast versus tougher 2 1/2 weeks ago, and as she's dropping a touch today, who's to say a repeat isn't well within reach? #4 STEFANIE ON FLEEK gets the hood slapped back on today, and as this one crashed the fiesta in all three starts when wearing it, we're seeing the prospect for a repeat performance -- despite the poor recent form. #3 INDIAN BELLA tossed in a real stinker in the most recent, but digs this distance of ground, and can make amends. 

 

Race  3

1.Regal Quality

2.Factor This In

3.Its All Relevant

#2 REGAL QUALITY has crashed the fiesta in his last quartet when going from two turns to one, and after posting a solid placing against steeper when last in action, is dropped right back down to the level claimed two back, in hopes of a quick profit. #1 FACTOR THIS IN is on a tidy little 4:3-1-0 run when being the first to load, and pre layoff pilot returns -- which is something we always see as a positive. #3 ITS ALL RELEVANT is a snappy 4:3-0-1 when coming back off a respite on the sand, and also found the line first the only time toting this weight. Barn on a nice run these days, so we'll chunk in.

 

Race  4 

1.Tough Workout

2.V Pattern

3.Scat Brat

#3 TOUGH WORKOUT was in the rear with the gear when facing open foes nine days back, and is back in with Empire breds, which is fine by us, as this one put forth a gallant showing in a near identical spot just before that. Looking good. #1 V PATTERN loses the eye cups, slides in to the wood, and gets in with a feather; legit shot if able to catch a flyer & outbreak the above. #5 SCAT BRAT hasn't faced the starter in nearly the full length of the calendar, but the adjusted figaro from the bow was honest enough, and rates a shot if sound & fully cranked up. 

 

Race  5

1.Fast Break

2.Smile Bryan

3.D' Rapper

#2 FAST BREAK has won two of three, and his finest work has come over this oval. Fella by no means disgraced himself at this level two back, and is a sensible selection here. #4 SMILE BRYAN was primarily a turf runner last year, but has done some good things on the brown stuff and would be no surprise. #7 D' RAPPER is approximately an 11.3% better animal on a fast track then a wet one, so right off the bat, you can feel free to upgrade the most recent effort proportionately. Gelding has a habit of being right around the superfecta, and should be right there once again. 

 

Race  6 

1.Hipnotizada

2.Beautiful Karen

3.Rainbow Gal

These three & no more for all our rolling action.  #1 HIPNOTIZADA last faced the starter back at the end of May, but posted an adjusted 74.1 in her only start off a layoff, and now finds herself at her lowest level yet while drawing the inside. #6 BEAUTIFUL KAREN has been disappointing in her last duet, but has a "For Sale" sticker attached to her rump, & the one time that occurred, a win was the end result. #2 RAINBOW GAL went 36-66 in her only two starts over a glib surface before running in five events on a wet track, so who knows where her ceiling is in that regards. There was a voided claim to back, so after the recent flop, it would behoove you to take a peek in the paddock. 

 

Race  7

1.Bustin Bay

2.Electric Youth

3.Grudge

#9 BUSTIN BAY easily defeated what we would consider to be a stronger allotment on the 2nd of the month, and drops three lb.'s off that tally ( which we always dig ). Hat trick well within reach for a  runner who's won with half of his six starts in Queens. #10 ELECTRIC YOUTH is another aiming for the three bagger in today's third start off the pine, and it's quite doable for this hot trainer & jockey. #7 GRUDGE rounds out the top three. 

 

Race  8 

1.Morello

2.Coastal Mission

3.Beast of Famine

Wide open feature on tap, so tread lightly.  #2 MORELLO was a visually impressive victor when winning at first asking around turkey time, but that may have taken a bit of starch out of the collar, as he was sent to the sidelines for a couple'a months. Worktab signals readiness for the return, and we'll give him a tepid nod. #1 COASTAL MISSION has yet to finish out of the money, and that includes a recent showing in a race from which eight returnees have amassed a cumulative 4-2-1 record w/an average BSF improvement of 1.4 points per. #3 BEAST OR FAMINE has gone up, up, up the Beyer ladder since starting things out, and is but a head shy of shooting four four in a row today; cross entered at Laurel Saturday, so check the changes. 

 

Race  9 

1.Prisoner

2.El Mayor

3.Halpert

#6 PRISONER hasn't been in action since Hector was a pup, and after going all the way in his bow, gets the "Around the World" treatment by Rudy Rod for the comebacker ( Blinks, Lasix, and has lost his procreating abilities ). legit shot if ready. #9 EL MAYOR has been kept in jail since the December 30th snag, and comes back at that exact same level in this spot. Last start on a track labeled FST was a victorious one -- and also his best from a numbers aspect -- and draws well today. #2 HALPERT can land a share for a hot barn. 


Aqueduct          ( Current ): 51-199  ( $488 )   Beatable  Favorites    5-24( 21.2% )   Favorites   Win %:    73-190     ( 38.4% ) ( As of Sunday morning ) 


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3112-16022 ($26,872.10)  Beatable Favorites : 390-1427( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6040-16030 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.1%  against a 16.9% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3197-16590 ($27,691.30)   Beatable Favorites : 405-1495( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6203-16691 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -16.4%  against a 16.7% takeout


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