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Just a reminder that for today's coverage of BOTH Pegasus Grde One's from Gulfstream Park, merely go back one page. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 1/29

 

Race  1

1.Long Term

2.Pathological

3.Eagle in Love

#5 LONG TERM has closed out the exacta in both starts to date, and is a dirt "omnifig" in that all ( both ) of his Beyers on the main track supersede anything that anyone in this race has posted ( or we feel is capable of posting ) on such. Yes, the most recent was a money burning effort, but the # was still solid, & we like when a trainer feels the confidence to make an equipment/medication change off a decent performance. #3 PATHOLOGICAL bested half the field at a big offering when starting things out on the gramma back in November & returns w/blinks & juice for the first time. #4 EAGLE IN LOVE needn't be much to make an impression in today's bow. 

 

Race  2

1.Hot Stepper

2.St. Lukes

3.Ginnsu Warrior

#5 HOT STEPPER got up in time to procure the sheepskin for Charlie three weeks back, and while a bounce is always possible in a "second start with Lasix" scenario, we feel the light bulb has come on & will give him the slight nod. #6 ST. LUKES was a visually impressive victor when going against maiden platers six weeks ago, and gets the "Big L" off that winning effort. A regression can happen at times when a horse scores off an absence, but given the way this one has improved with each passing start, we'll chunk in. #2 GINNSU WARRIOR posted a lifetime best 68.3 the only time he went one turn on the sand, and with natural maturity off that debut, is eligible to do even better today. 

 

Race  3

1.He's Got It

2.Bosship

3.Eddie the Great

#1 HE'S GOT IT lost by just three when going over the brown stuff for the first time on the 9th of the month, and the BSF earned that day was both fine & dandy. Shouldn't be 5-6W with the wood draw this afternoon, as he ( purportedly ) will be going over a fast track for the 1st time. #3 BOSSHIP closed out the super at 22-1 when last in action and can spice things up a bit. #4 EDDIE THE GREAT was a gamely runner up in a near identical spot a baker's dozen days back, and is all kinds of logical.

 

Race  4 

1.Blushable

2.Courageous Girl

3.Default Protection

#2 BLUSHABLE has won two of her las three for a barn who has performed some "miracles" of late ( 13 of 29 ), and we consider today a drop in class off the last tally. Grey gal sheds some lb.'s after the score as well -- something we always dig. #6 COURAGEOUS GIRL in eight straight ( excluding the pre-layoff flop ) & has done some nice work at this trip and over this strip. #1 DEFAULT PROTECTION apparently found the goo to her liking last out, as she bested special weight company by a pole right here, and we see no reason to exclude. 

 

Race  5

1.Rational Choice 

2.Mandatory

3.Comedic Timing

#5 RATIONAL CHOICE returned off a two Thanksgiving hibernation to post a lively showing behind two next out winners on 12/2, as all three from that affair have come back to accumulate a 3:2-0-1 mark, with a negligible BSF change amongst the troika. Beware of the bounce, tho. #6 MANDATORY hung up a career best numero in his sole 3rd off the layoff engagement ( at this locale ), but has been a bit of a money burner, so we'll leave underneath. #4 COMEDIC TIMING has completed the triple in his last quartet, and who are we to rock that boat? 

 

Race  6 

1.Tale of Mineshaft

2.Malibu Star

3.Forgotten Mission

#10 TALE OF MINESHAFT finds himself at his lowest level to date, and may be much better than the recent #'s have shown, as this one has always been on the poly, and is MUCH better bred for the main track. Should be no worse than 2nd here for all you show punters out there. #6 MALIBU STAR appears to be the lone threat to the above, based on the tally in his sole "true" second off the L/O deal, and the "For Sale" sticker being attached to his rump for the first time. #1 FORGOTTEN MISSION has lost ground in the lane in every single start to date, but has enough speed to hang on for a piece vs. these. 

 

Race  7

1.Pioneer Spirit

2.Hammerin Aamer

3.Texas Swing

#3 PIONEER SPIRIT more than outran his odds when finishing a lively runner up at this level on New Year's Eve, and now goes from one turn to two, which is quite relevant, as this one owns a 4:2-0-2 record when doing such. Factor in a snappy 7:2-3-1-1 when loading last ( as well as a two fer five mark in Ozone Park ), and you have the makings of a live runner. You can feel to draw an upwards arrow alongside the last half dozen Beyer Speed Figures of #1 HAMMERIN AAMER, as this one has done nothing but improve over that time, as he's but a length shy of a grand slam coming in to today; should be right there once again. #2 TEXAS SWING is in the best form of his life & is shoots for the salami here. 

 

Race  8 

1.Happy Medium

2.Chateau

3.Drafted

#2 HAPPY MEDIUM has essentially made e very pole a winning one since returning off the half'a year sabbatical, and this one simply appears to lay over the rest signed on. Should be easy sledding in today's Tobaggan. #4 CHATEAU is 4:2-2-0 in third off the layoff engagements, and it's difficult to argue with the 4:2-2-0 ledger right here as well. Big shot if able to outbreak the above. #1 DRAFTED has cashed a lot of checks since arriving in the states and draws snugly.

 

Race  9 

1.Eminency

2.Pineapple Man

3.Cave Man

#4 EMINENCY is second time Lasix & has eye cups added; down the lane. #2 PINEAPPLE MAN showed precipitous improvement from his first start to the next, and adds the miracle drug off that effort. #1 CAVE MAN has a decent overall body of work & gets the pine for the 1st time.  


Aqueduct          ( Current ): 51-190  ( $481 )   Beatable  Favorites    4-23( 17.4% )   Favorites   Win %:    73-190     ( 38.4% ) ( As of Friday morning )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3112-16022 ($26,872.10)  Beatable Favorites : 390-1427( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6040-16030 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.1%  against a 16.9% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3197-16590 ($27,691.30)   Beatable Favorites : 405-1495( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6203-16691 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -16.4%  against a 16.7% takeout


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