Note: For today's full card selections & analysis for Aqueduct, merely go back one page.

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

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Graded Stakes - 1/29 - Gulfstream Park - Both Pegasus Grade One's


Race 11 


2.Colonel Liam

3.Never Surprised

#3 FLAVIUS hasn't been in action since mid November, but seven year old ridgling ( ouch ) is a crisp 8:2-2-2-2 off the pine ( while being 2 for 6 in that area on a firm course ). Bobblehead takes the helm for the first time, & the jockey/trainer combo click at a 28:9-5-4 rate ( 32% ) with male turf stayers off breaks of 15-100 days ( 25-1 or beneath ), w/a whopping $3.40 ROI. #6 COLONEL LIAM was last seen way back in June, but the grey guy found the line first the only time he came back off a respite, and has won two straight at Hallandale Beach. Logical. #12 NEVER SURPRISED owns a boatload of speed & has yet to miss the exacta. 4YO was a game runner up the only time when marooned, & should be there once again.


      Race 12

1.Knicks Go

2.Chess Chief

3.Stilleto Boy

#1 KNICKS GO is 4-4 when returning off a true layoff in a dirt route ( with one of those being right here ). All the way. #2 CHESS CHIEF comes in today off a career best # & can land a share should any sort of pace duel develop. #3 STILLETO BOY has been a runner up in both 1X to 2X forays & may pick up some pieces beneath Sleepy. 


Aqueduct          ( Current ): 49-182  ( $481 )   Beatable  Favorites    4-22( 18.2% )   Favorites   Win %:    68-182     ( 37.4% ) ( As of Wedneday morning )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3112-16022 ($26,872.10)  Beatable Favorites : 390-1427( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6040-16030 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.1%  against a 16.9% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3197-16590 ($27,691.30)   Beatable Favorites : 405-1495( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6203-16691 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -16.4%  against a 16.7% takeout