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Two weeks in the books, as we start out Week 3 just a tick better than the takeout rate, and we can do without any more washouts !! 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Saratoga - 7/28

 

Race  1

1.The Mean Queen ( Ire )

2.City Dreamer ( Ire )

3.Bodes Well ( Ire )

We're BIG fans of the Steeplechase program, and encourage y'all to support it at the windows as well this meet !!  #6 THE MEAN QUEEN (IRE) shoots for the grand salami in this year's rendition of the Jonathan Kaiser, and it's well within reach, as this one has gotten better with each & every start, and drops weight off a win, which is something we always dig. #4 CITY DREAMER (IRE) displayed zippo in the most recent, but is in a 3rd off the layoff scenario today, and ran second ( by a length ) in each try off of that kind of spot. #5 BODES WELL (IRE) completes the "Erin Go Bragh" triple based on the decent last two showings for Leslie Young.. 

 

 

 

Race  2

1.Clench

2.Rocking the Boat

3.Fox Red

#6 CLENCH took the mandatory hike in class after being snagged for 40 large back in June, ( a race in which he finished second, running the last quarter in 22.30. Rosario climbs aboard for the first time, and we'll give this one a shot if able to get back to the penultimate try. #4 ROCKING THE BOAT has hit the board in his last six truncated starts, and aside from being 4:1-2-2 at the trip, is 2:1-1-0 with Irad getting legged up. Logical contender. #1 FOX RED has been a popular item at the claim box, as this one has had to leave a forwarding address after five of his last eight outings when eligible to be purchased, and that's understandable, as he often gives s good account of himself. Fella also has a nice effort when breaking from the pine, but is an extreme nibbler at this dx., as the 22:3-10-4 mark belies. 

 

 

 

Race  3

1.Barrage

2.Ocala Dream

3.Dreamer's Disease

#8 BARRAGE showed some decent improvement from the first start to the second, and we like that it came when having Lasix removed in the NYB Stallion Stakes, Big time jockey upgrade in play today, and he's confident enough to add the blinkers after a solid effort ( something we always dig ). Looking good, despite being winless. #4 OCALA DREAM shoots for the hat trick today, and it's quite feasible, given the solid progression of BSF's when going two turns. #1 DREAMER'S DISEASE has some fair early zip, and got the job done in his only turf route. Dangerous if able to catch a flyer and set some easy splits. 

 

 

 

Race  4 

1.Quasar

2.East Wing

3.Alpine Queen

#5 QUASAR has partaken in the superfecta in her last sextet of trips to the front side, and new bossman Atras has won with half of his 14 mid level dirt sprinters who've hit the board 14-50 days back, & are beneath the 9-1 watermark. Mare has a tendency to hang, so don't go too wild with this one. #7 EAST WING finds herself at her lowest level to date & has the hood added for the first time. #3 ALPINE QUEEN as good as any for the show dough beneath the meet's leading rider.  NOTE: AS OF 12:13, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

 

 

Race  5

1.Timbuktu

2.Achilles Heel 

3.Resilient Courage

#3 TIMBUKTU has been working very well for today's bow, is bred decently for this sorta deal, and Cox off to a flying start st the stand. Mild choice in a wide, wide open jammie. #5 ACHILLES HEEL merely beat home one horse and the chase ambulance when starting things out back in May, but was a bit tardy to the party that day, and could show an improved effort with a snappier onset. #4 RESILIENT COURAGE was somewhat green when beginning his working life 19 days back, but Jose sticks around for this one's first try on the lawn, and we'll chunk in.  OFF TURF: 10-5-7-2-4

 

 

 

Race  6 

1.I Am the Law

2.Absolute Courage

3.Pipeline

We're seeing this race as easy as 1-2-3 !  #1 I AM THE LAW has yet to toss in a clunker, as this one has made the superfecta in all his starts thus far, and the excellent breeding for going long ( Medaglia d'Oro...Distorted Humor )  distances should help him in today's initial two turn try over a fast track. After burning some bread in his first two trips to the track, #2 ABSOLUTE COURAGE outran his parimutuel offering when posting a career best number in placing vs. this type at 8-1. $800,000 auction purchase with a 406 Tommy has plenty of upside. #3 PIPELINE is another who should appreciate the 2nd turn, and has blinks added by Brown. 

 

 

 

Race  7

1.Speaktomeofsummer

2.Hungry Kitten 

3.Witez

#4 SPEAKTOMEOFSUMMER showed little in the G3 event in Long Branch a touch over a month ago, but Clement runner got the lion's share in her only try on the inner, and has done good things with Rosario as well. Most timid of choices in a race where we were unable to toss anyone with our first draft. #3 HUNGRY KITTEN hasn't been in action since turkey time, but mare went from zero to hero on this oval last year, and is a legit threat if Shug has her fully cranked up for the comebacker. #9 WITEZ bested slightly weaker down at CD on 6/19, and is another who has done okay right here. Leaving beneath as Johnny is a mite chilly these days.  OFF TURF: 6-3-4-7-1(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 12:17, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

 

 

Race  8 

1.Big Package

2.Yes and Yes

3.Gypsy King

#3 BIG PACKAGE has crashed the tri in five straight going back 22 months, and switches from the laid up Cardenas to Irad here, which is fine by us, as the latter owns a win & a showing beneath this Donk runnah. There's plenty of speed in here for this one to cut in to, and we see another goodie in the forecast. #4 YES AND YES was a dead game and well clear runner up vs. slightly weaker a fortnight back, and while a bounce is always possible off of that lifetime best Beyer figure, we'd be silly to exclude. #5 GYPSY KING hasn't faced the starter since October, and as they don't give too many vacations in this game, it's safe to say that something went amiss after that November 15th bullet breeze at Del Mar ( where the turf really doesn't meet the surf ). The big "L" is now a part of the makeup, and Wesley wouldn't have Rosario ride any short runners.  OFF TURF: 12-10-9(MTO)-7-2  NOTE: AS OF 12:21, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

 

 

Race  9 

1.Bell's the One

2.Reagan's Edge 

3.Miss Mosaic 

#9 BELL'S THE ONE ( "I have to get some danish for Bell." ) is the clear class of this grouping ( five straight Grade One's, including a win in one ), owns an unblemished four for four record at the dx., has been working sensationally at Arlington Park, and draws the perfect post. C-Lan comes in for the assignment, and it's her race to lose in the Honorable Miss. #2 REAGAN'S EDGE has a decent overall body of work, and finished second in a similar spot here on closing weekend last year ( behind a next out winner ). Decent "unders" candidate. #8 MISS MOSAIC rounds out the top three. ( Which means "We can barely keep our eyes open after writing & handicapping all day." )

 

 

 

Race  10

1.Centurion

2.Flight to Paradise

3.Caribbean Gold 

#5 CENTURION has been in excellent form over the last troika, and drops a couple'a pegs today. $425,000 Keeneland purchase has been an obvious disappointment to date, but maybe he gets over the hump here. #12 FLIGHT TO PARADISE is another one doing some solid work this annum, and tho Castellano is having a sub par meet, he & Trombetta have done well together. #3 CARIBBEAN GOLD received the unkindest cut of all after failing at 5/2, and could perk him up a bit. ( It would sure get our attention. )  OFF TURF: 12-4-1-16(MTO)-15(MTO )

  

 

 

Saratoga          ( Current ): 19-91      ( $154.80 ) Beatable Favorites    2-4   ( 50% ) Favorites Win %:     32-91     ( 35.2% ) ( As of Wednesday morning )  

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 4-27        ( $34.60 )   Beatable Favorites    0-1    ( 0% )  Favorites  Win %:    11-26     ( 42.3% )


Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2923-15087 ($25,472.60)  Beatable Favorites : 371-1361( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5706-15169 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.5%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3008-15655 ($26,291.80)   Beatable Favorites : 386-1429( 27% )   Favorite's Win %: 5889-15756 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


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