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Just one chalky winner yesterday, but our bacon was saved a bit with a $955 Triple Box, two Exacta Boxes of $242 & $70, a $129 Quinella Box, & a $248 Rolling Double. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Saratoga - 7/25

 

Race  1

1.Openthegate

2.Trade Secret

3.Tout Ensemble

These three and no more for all our rolling action.   #3 OPENTHEGATE starts out her professional career this afternoon, and does such with a few decent works in tow. Dam was 14:2-5-2 on a fast track ( 135K ), and obviously the sire was a goodie. This one is a half to one who's gone 9:1-2-3 thus far, and is facing no world beaters. #2 TRADE SECRET has hit the board in both starts to date, and should be no worse than 3rd for all you show punters out there. #4 TOUT ENSEMBLE posted a nice five furlong bullet two weeks back for today's bow, and went for more than 8X the $22,500 stud fee at auction, and could be any kind.  NOTE: AS OF 11:12, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 6-3-2.

 

 

Race  2

1.Luna's in Charge

2.Our Destiny

3.Wild William

#6 LUNA'S IN CHARGE was vanned off after returning from a six month sabbatical, but five year old has partaken in the superfecta in all three "second off the layoff" deals ( with one of the placings coming in the lone turf attempt, and we like that there's no scary drop today. Mild choice, and it would behoove you to take a peek in the paddock. #1 OUR DESTINY has shown vastly improved speed since being transferred to the Potts barn, and the hat trick is quite feasible here. #12 WILD WILLIAM is two for seven on the Mellon, and has partaken in the triple in both "2nd after the L/O" starts, and has done the same when last to load.  OFF TURF: 11-2(MTO)-7-3-1  NOTE: AS OF 11:16, THE #8 WILL BE OUR SECOND SELECTION.

 

 

Race  3

1.Pop the Bubbly

2.Marvelous Maude

3.Epona's Dream 

#7 POP THE BUBBLY hasn't been seen since early January, but was a lively runner up directly in front of a next out winner in her sole spin on the sod, and is this one is better bred for the green than the brown, we're thinking that the solid result wasn't an aberration. The adjusted 67.7 from that day ( without Lasix ) would stand up well with these. #3 MARVELOUS MAUDE encountered some trouble first time out, but still secured third place money that day, and gets an upgrade in the jockey department for the secondary engagement. #8 EPONA'S DREAM has gone 50-57-63 in her troika of grass deals thus far, so right off the bat, who knows where her ceiling is in that regards. Hard to argue with the recent six pack of superfecta finishes.  OFF TURF: 8-1-3-9-5  NOTE: AS OF 11:20, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 10-5-1.

 

 

Race  4 

1.Moonachie

2.Power Up Paynter

3.Binkster

#3 MOONACHIE has been a part of the exacta in six of his last seven, and aside from being vanned off after a bad step here last year, 'Miah charge has handled himself quite well on this circuit ( 6:2-0-0-3 ). Chestnut chap has done well beneath Vargas ( winning one of two ), and take note that the two who sandwiched this one in the most recent, finished 1st & 2nd in their respective next out starts. #6 POWER UP PAYNTER showed little in the comebacker, but was taken extremely wide that day, and closed out the exacta in his only second off the bench jammie on the dirt. Could come along for a share. #4 BINKSTER is an extremely consistent sort who found the line first the last time he was mad available for purchase.  NOTE: AS OF 11:24, DUE TO THE THE TRACK BEING WET, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 3-4-1A.

 

 

Race  5

1.Entwine ( Ire ) ( AE )

2.High School Crush

3.Little Dutch Girl ( AE )

#1A ENTWINE (IRE) (AE) needs a couple to get the sniffles in order to make it into the body of the race, but should that come to bear, would be bringing in a decent turf resume', and what we would consider to be a favorable draw. Slight edge in a race with just two first draft eliminations. #9 HIGH SCHOOL CRUSH put forth a good effort in her first start after a 4 1/2 month sabbatical, and as that was the better of her two when going over ground with some give to it, perhaps it can prorate to her finest over firm ground. #13 LITTLE DUTCH GIRL (AE) is another on the outside looking in, and after coring at first asking, flopped after the long hibernation. Another shot for C-Squared if sound.  OFF TURF: 12-1-4-7-2  NOTE: AS OF 11:28, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 10-6-8.

 

 

Race  6 

1.Roundabout

2.Gal in a Rush

3.Shared Future

After eight hum drum workouts, Terranova tightened the screws on #7 ROUNDABOUT a bit, sending him out in a 19th best of 139 breeze right here eight days back, and this one is a half to Killybegs Captain, who went 26:7-5-3 ( 572 large ), as well as four other multiple dirt winners from five other siblings. Check this out -- ALL those on the sire side of the family won at first asking, and each of the three won their ONLY start at the Spa. If we're gonna go with Johnny V. to snap out of his slump, why not with a price. #6 GAL IN A RUSH is an expensive firster doing decently in the A.M.'s for today's overture, and has some decent pedigree on both sides of the family tree. #1 SHARED FUTURE is showing a spectacular 46 & 3 gate work, owns a fat 419 Tomlinson for today's trip, and "The As-Man is two of three with firsters fitting ALL of today's criteria at 7-1 or less ( sans Lasix ), with payouts of $5 & $10. 

 

 

Race  7

1.April Antics

2.Polished Gem 

3.Raffinity

#7 APRIL ANTICS is a bit light from a speed figure aspect, but we always give a runner two shots under a particular set of circumstances to show their hand, and this one ( presumably ) goes over a fast track for the first time. 6% trainer doesn't claim many, but is 6:1-1-1 when doing such with dirt dashers ( $69, 29-1 & 19-1 ). We're gonna need all of that 30-1 ML offering with Harkie in the saddle, but as the heavy favorite is coming in off a break, we'll swing away. #5 POLISHED GEM takes the mandatory hike in class after being claimed on opening day, and Carlito adds blinkers for today's quick turnaround. #1 RAFFINITY is another coming back quickly ( 96 hours ) after being claimed out of a maiden breaking tally, and we'll slide beneath.  NOTE: AS OF 2:03, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-4-7.

 

 

Race  8 

1.Mo Ready

2.Cavalry Charge

3.Winning Factor

#1 MO READY is two for two in second off the respite heats on firm ground, and that's more than enough reason to use at 20-1 ( especially as both scores came on the inner ). Pletcher at a price? We'll nibble. #11 CAVALRY CHARGE is two of two when going on firm turf, and as this one is coming in off of back to back career best #'s, we see little reason to exclude at a double digit offering. #10 WINNING FACTOR got his Polaroid taken the only time he put a hoof on this course, and would be aided with any speed duel. OFF TURF: 10-2(MTO)-8-1-9  NOTE: AS OF 11:32, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-13(MTO)-6.

 

 

Race  9 

1.Royal Flag

2.Dunbar Road

3.Horologist

Today's featured race is named after the Hall of famer Shuvee, and for some info on this gal ( who won several races right here ) go to this link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shuvee . As for the race itself, we'll give a tepid nod to #7 ROYAL FLAG. Lightly raced mare has yet to miss the board, and that includes a strong placing behind the excellent Letruska in her lone start here ( when breaking from the outside ), a win in her other outing when last to load, and is but a head shy of being three fer three off a break in the action. #4 DUNBAR ROAD ( uncoupled barnmate with the above ) is 4:2-0-1 off a L/O, and won the Alabama, so how can we leave out? #1 HOROLOGIST has a 4:2-0-1 ledger when going in the gate first, and has that same win rate with Junior aboard. May grind out a minor spoil. 

 

 

Race  10

1.Respect For All

2.O Shea Can U See

3.Crea's Bklyn Law

#9 RESPECT FORE ALL was ambitiously placed in his first start off the purchase, and after getting smacked around early, then taking the widest route possible, is entered for the price claimed this afternoon, while getting in with a feather. There was speed shown in the placing two back, and if ( and that's a big if ) this one can clear early & set some easy fractions in a race devoid of much speed, maybe this one can shock the world. #1 O SHEA CAN U SEE has a 5:1-3-0-1 mark when breaking from the inside & can jazz things up beneath. #4 CREA'S BKLYN LAW is a nibbler by rote, and gets some jock improvement in the day's finale.   NOTE: AS OF 11:36, WE HAVE AMENBDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 6-3-8.

  

Saratoga          ( Current ): 15-81      ( $130.20 ) Beatable Favorites    2-4   ( 50% ) Favorites Win %:     27-81     ( 33.3% ) ( As of Sunday morning )  

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 4-27        ( $34.60 )   Beatable Favorites    0-1    ( 0% )  Favorites  Win %:    11-26     ( 42.3% )


Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2923-15087 ($25,472.60)  Beatable Favorites : 371-1361( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5706-15169 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.5%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3008-15655 ($26,291.80)   Beatable Favorites : 386-1429( 27% )   Favorite's Win %: 5889-15756 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


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