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Just about a breakeven day for us here yesterday,  


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Saratoga - 7/23

 

Race  1

1.Big Scully

2.Unbridled Bomber

3.King of Sting

#9 BIG SCULLY begins his professional working life right here, and does such with some crisp morning moves in tow. When it comes to his first time starters going short on the dirt sans Lasix ( at 14-1 or less ), Dally is a snappy 9:4-1-0 with FAT mutuels of $30, $26, $13 & $12. Recognize that both parents won at first asking, and of course, we love the draw. #3 UNBRIDLED BOMBER is another one making her overture ( "Overture, curtain, lights. This is it. The night of nights. No more rehearsing, we know every part. We know every part by heart !!" ), and is showing a crisp gate breeze of 48 & 1 on the Belmont training track. Could spice things up a bit. #2 KING OF STING completes our troika of runners with no racing experience based on the snappy 396 Tomlinson figure for the trip. 

 

 

Race  2

1.Fetching

2.Beaux Arts

3.Stolen Base

#1 FETCHING comes in today off a solid placing nestled in between two next out winners, and barn is a decent 3 for 7 with optional turf dashers who were 1-2-3 19 to 67 days back ( $9, $11 & $12 ). #3 BEAU ARTS was a lively runner up vs. slightly weaker on the 20th of June, and has closed out the exacta in both "3rd off the L/O" jammies, so we have no issues sliding here. #7 STOLEN BASE has some early zip, and got her Polaroid taken the only time she was in a third off the respite spot. Can land a share.  OFF TURF: 7-4-5-2-1

 

 

Race  3

1.Mubtadaa

2.No Burn

3.Realm of Law

#2 MUBTADAA has improved with each start to date ( both in placings & speed figures ), and nearly lit up the tote board for The Toddster down in Elmont 41 days in the rear. We like the improved speed shown in the last, and could be sitting on a biggie for today's third start off the pine. #4 NO BURN is nicely bred for this kinda deal, as the sire's side of the family tree is pretty strong, and there's a nicely hidden 59 & 2/5th's workout for this. #9 REALM OF LAW is another who's gotten better and better, but has a nasty propensity for burning baccala, so we'll keep in the "unders".  OFF TURF: 7-2B-1-9-4

 

 

Race  4 

1.I Love Jaxson

2.Durkin's Call

3.Dark Money

These three and no more.  #4 I LOVE JAXSON merely beat one home a fortnight past, but six year old has a nose for the finish line ( 31:8-1-2 ), and is also one for three up here. From a DRF Formulator standpoint, Baby Englehart is a snappy 3 fer 5 with locally based mid level dirt stock off breaks of less than four weeks ( 19-1 or less ). Hot Saez climbs aboard for the first time, and we're expecting a rebound. #6 DURKIN'S CALL ( tho winless at this locale ) is on a 4:1-2-0 run when entered between 20K & 25K, and should appreciate today's placement. #8 DARK MONEY won this race 50 days back, and that's more than enough reason to include. 

  

 

Race  5

1.Gailhorsewind

2.Tuscan Queen

3.Dame Time

#3 GAILHORSEWIND had a bit of an erratic journey in a similar spot about a month ago, but hung up a couple'a decent running lines just prior to that, and Linda Rice ( who is currently appealing her license revocation by the NYS Gaming Commission ) is 7:4-1-2 with Saratoga based turf sprinters at this level ( seven weeks or less ) and has a whopping $4.77 R.O.I. in that regards. #5 TUSCAN QUEEN appeared to be sitting a real nice trip when starting things out in early June, but weakened a bit late in the game in finishing third. $15,000 bred animal went for 12 times that amount at Ocala last April, so is obviously well meant, and we're thinking the solid bow wasn't an aberration. #2 DAME TIME has outrun her offering in both starts to date, and seeing a comment such as "...good courage" gives us hope for a repeat.  OFF TURF: 11-5-1-7-2

 

 

Race  6 

1.Carom

2.Jais's Solitude

3.Ajourneytofreedom

#3 CAROM has partaken in the superfecta in 10 of his last 11, and has won two of his last three with a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump. Slight edge in an interesting heat. #2 JAIS'S SOLITUDE gets some much needed class relief in this spot ( after finishing last & 10th of 14 ), and happens to be 5:2-2-0 off a break in the action. 9% shotcaller doubles that rate with T-Gaff in the irons, and chances would increase with any kind of pace duel ahead of him. #7 AJOURNEYTOFREEDOM has faced some salty critters over the last year, and completed the tri the only time he was in this kind of layoff scenario, so that seems like a good spot to place him here.  OFF TURF: 1-4-3-2-7  NOTE: AS OF 11:18, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 3-5-2.

 

 

Race  7

1.Papa Smooth

2.Forest Spirit

3.Air Show

#7 PAPA SMOOTH went all the way against maiden claimers to grab the sheepskin sown in Big Sandy three weeks in the rear, and sometimes when the light bulb comes on, it can stay on for a while, and three year old lands in a soft spot for the first try against winners. #1 FOREST SPIRIT essentially replicated the figure from the maiden breaking win when finishing 3rd against allowance foes on 7/3, and chestnut chap owns a 3:1-1-1 ledger when breaking from the innermost two slots ( 6:0-1-1 otherwise ). #10 AIR SHOW has done very little wrong thus far, and 7th different jock in as many affairs is one of the best on the grounds in Jose.  NOTE: AS OF 11:14, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, #'S 3 & 6 WILL BE OUR SECOND & THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

 

 

Race  8 

1.Troubleshooter

2.Colormepazzi

3.Judge N Jury

We're not really feeling the heat from this deal, so tread lightly.  #2 TROUBLESHOOTER has been positively ghastly in both starts this year, but we like that there's no scary drop, and 'Miah enlists the services of a jock he's had some decent success with. Note that this one scored by a pole in a first off the break try way back when, so IF they've sorted out some issues with this one ( "I don't need you to be contemplating no "if's." ), then maybe this one can surprise at a big numbah. #5 COLORMEPAZZI got smacked around a bit against conditional claimers a tad less than a month ago, but still picked up 20% of the pot that day, and if you look at the progression of speed figures over the last two years, this one has really progressed nicely. #7 JUDGE N JURY hasn't been in action in nearly the full length of a calendar, but both starts here last year were goodies, and $200,000 ( a bit curiously ) has been gelded since last brought over to the frontside. Lasix & Looie are now a part of the package as well. 

 

 

Race  9 

1.Toby's Heart

2.Jouster

3.Runaway Rumour

Wide, wide, wide open feature on tap here.  #7 TOBY'S HEART came along smartly to fall just a half length short in a listed stakes down in Louisville on the 26th of June, and the lone returnee from that affair came back to win when next seen, elevating the prior BSF by just one pt. in the process. #5 JOUSTER had positively no excuse for wilting in the last 1/8th after setting a 1:15 & 1 3/4's last time out, but hey, they all can't be winners, kid. Aside from that, Pletcher trainee is but a nose shy of a poyfect four for four on the sod, and the race goes through her. There's an old adage about using undefeated runners going off at more than 3-1, and we'll call on that with the 3 for 3 #2 RUNAWAY RUMOUR listed at 6-1 on the morning line.  OFF TURF: 1-7-2-10-9

 

 

Race  10

1.Epicurean

2.Thrill

3.Code Name Lise

#3 EPICUREAN more than doubled the figaro earned in the initial turf attempt when flashing some speed & finishing third at Belmont last month, and over the last 60 months, Ward is a juicy 7-16 with mdclm. turf sprinters who hit the board 23-67 days in the past ( $2.80 return on investment ). You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow alongside the first three past performances of #1 THRILL, as Candy Ride runner was heading in the right direction before the wheels came off on, or shortly after the 10/5/20 move. The fact that she's up for grabs here doesn't trill us, but we'd be silly to exclude. #7 CODE NAME LISE is displaying a bullet breeze across the street on 7/8, and said move was more than 1/5th of a second faster than a runner who's won three in a row -- including a Grade 2. Hmmmmmmm.......   OFF TURF: 11-10-1-9-6

  

 

Saratoga          ( Current ): 13-60      ( $108.90 ) Beatable Favorites    2-4   ( 50% ) Favorites Win %:     22-60     ( 37.2% ) ( As of Friday morning )  

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 4-27        ( $34.60 )   Beatable Favorites    0-1    ( 0% )  Favorites  Win %:    11-26     ( 42.3% )


Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2923-15087 ($25,472.60)  Beatable Favorites : 371-1361( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5706-15169 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.5%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3008-15655 ($26,291.80)   Beatable Favorites : 386-1429( 27% )   Favorite's Win %: 5889-15756 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


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