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We look to right the ship today, as with four more favorites coming in on Sunday, they are now on a 126 for 263 run ( 48% ) since closing weekend of the winter meet. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #4 Here Comes Jackie  Race 3 - #1 Calidad  Race 5 - #3 O'Trouble


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 5/20

 

Race  1

1.Draw Off

2.Saratoga Kisses 

3.No Time Alone

#4 DRAW OFF starts out her working life today, and does such with a couple of nice gate breezes on the docket for Weaver. Aforementioned shotcaller is a jazzy 5 of 8 with locally based maiden special weight 2YO firsters on the dirt, and has some healthy mutuels as well ( $23, $4, $7, $12 & $9 ). This one is a half to a 4-18 dirt dasher ( 88K ) as well as Jake Rocks, who has turned into an okay allowance type runner. #5 SARATOGA KISSES is another beginning her career here, and aside from a couple'a nice morning moves, owns a healthy Tomlinson figure for the trip, and gal by our favorite sire draws well. #2 NO TIME ALONE completes our troika of firsters, and Ward is off to his usual "first half of the year" quick start.

 

 

Race  2

1.Take Charge Tina

2.Vip Nation

3.Saburai

#6 TAKE CHARGE TINA merely split the field in her first start off the layoff/claim by Klesaris, but historically, this one is but a half length short of a two for to mark in "second off the shelf turf routes" , and on the whole is two for five at today's distance of ground. Mild choice. #8 VIP NATION hasn't shown much of late, but got the job done the last time she went long on firm ground, and has done okay on the Widener. #3 SABURAI has partaken in the super in 6 of 7 and should be right there once again.  OFF TURF: 2-7-8-5-1  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 HERE COMES JACKIE

 

Race  3

1.Bewps

2.Sweet Larissa 

3.Tremayne

#4 BEWPS displayed very little in the turf bow nine days in the rear, but was a lively runner up in a near identical spot just prior to that, and has a big shot if able to get back to that effort for "The As-Man". #5 SWEET LARISSA has been in the back half of the pack in both starts thus far, but lunged at the start in one while being taken on the overland route in the other. Drops to her lowest level yet and may show some improvement over ( hopefully ) a glib surface. #2 TREMAYNE as bad as any for the show dough.  NOTE: AS OF 11:55, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 CALIDAD fills the bill, as Levine is 0-13 in all relevant categories.

 

Race  4 

1.True Castle

2.Anna's Fast

3.Gone Glimmering

#7 TRUE CASTLE is a gem of consistency, as this miss has been in the exacta in nine of her last ten trips to the track, and appears to be wisely spotted by a barn for her 3rd start off a respite ( a scenario where she score in her only other attempt in doing such. Gal's stalking type ability should suit her just fine for her primary attempt on Big Sandy. #1 ANNA'S FAST is a bit of an In-And-Out-Burger, but owns a 3:1-0-1 ledger on a fast track and is one for two in second off the shelf engagements ( none of those overlapping ). Speedster draws the pine for the 1st time & W.W. has a 5-13 mark with mid level dirt stock who missed the baccala 28-50 days back ( $5, $6, $7, $12 & $4 ). #3 GONE GLIMMERING was reclaimed by Atras for $62,500 on April Fool's Day, and after being kept in jail is dropped by more than a third in class for the comebacker. Irad is called upon, and why not, as aside from being the leading rider, he has a 3:2-1-0 record when piloting this gal ( with the defeat being by only a head; lone start here resulted in a win. 

 

Race  5

1.American Rule

2.Shanghai School

3.Democratic Values

#1 AMERICAN RULE has only beaten home four in five of her last six trips to the frontside, but the outing three starts back ( which is how far we go to find something positive, as it can often lead to solid prices ) yielded an adjusted 86 at a level slightly higher than this one. Ridgling's "Best" work has come right here ( 7:1-2-0 ), and bay fella was a lively runner up at 62-1 in one of two heats when blinkers where re-applied. Pregman -- who wins just 3% of the time -- has a nice 3-15 boxscore w/ NYRA based male claiming dirt stock off L/O's of less than five weeks, and the payouts for that survey were a fat $39, $27 & $20. We never "expect" to win when Harkie is on our animal, but when he does, it's usually at a big number. #5 SHANGHAI SCHOOL is in the best form of his life these days & is confidently raised in class off the sharp placing. #7 DEMOCRATIC VALUES has closed out the exacta ( or perfecta, or exactor, if they float your boat ) in both starts off a respite, and shoots for the interrupted hat trick this afternoon.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 O'TROUBLE

 

Race  6 

1.First Law

2.Dazzle Time

3.After Five

#2 FIRST LAW hasn't seen the seen since attempting the initial stretchout up at The Spa last August, and as they don't give too many vacations in this game, it's save to assume that something went awry that day, as there were no published works until March of this year. The miracle drug is part of the equation today, and this one is an obvious factor if sound & fully cranked up. #6 DAZZLE TIME went 52-24 in his first two forays, then followed that up with a 70-67-68 string when getting the juice, and now attempts the gramma for the first time, and is wonderfully bred for the stuff ( 389 Tommy ). Logical. #1 AFTER FIVE has a solid overall body of work, but may be a bit overbet in this spot.  OFF TURF 1-2-8-7-6

 

Race  7

1.Always Carina

2.Malibu Curl

3.Stand By You

#2 ALWAYS CARINA was a smart odds on victress right outta the box for Brown on 4/11, and the bloodlines for this homebred tells us the result was likely not an aberration. Filly has been working decently since, and from a DRF Formulator standpoint, barn is 9:5-2-0with optional 2nd timers on the sand who scored at first asking & are 5-1 or < ( positive ROI ). We see the #5 MALIBU CURL as the only one with a chance of upsetting the apple cart here, as runner finished third when facing undefeated ( and possible Belmont Stakes candidate Malathaat ) back in December, and hung up an adj. 84.5 when last seen winning on a fast strip. Gal gets the big "L" now. #6 STAND BY YOU may come along late for a share.

 

Race  8 

1.Battle Station

2.Fast Getaway

3.Big Engine

We don't have the best of reads on this race with no first draft eliminations, so take it slowwwwww....   #4 BATTLE STATION gave a good account of himself when returning off six flips of the calendar to pick up 12% of the pot on the 22nd of April, and can move forward a bit with that under her girthstrap. #9 FAST GETAWAY tried to get it done sans the jock last time out, but that ain't entirely legal, so Jose gives it another shot for today's second off the bench deal -- a situation where this one has hit the board in all three attempts. #7 BIG ENGINE didn't show much in his first start going over the blades, but we always give an animal two shots under a particular set of circumstances to prove themselves, and this one does in fact have god turf breeding.  OFF TURF:3-5-4-2(MTO)-8  NOTE: AS OF 12:05, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  9 

1.Coalition Building

2.Lisheen

3.Fortuna

#6 COALITION BUILDING has been beset by a pair of layoff lines in just a quartet of starts, but barn does very well with second off the L/O types, and the diploma's well within reach. #5 LISHEEN outran her 12-1 offering when posting a best ever BSF in this race last month, but we'll leave beneath, as Motion is on an oh-fer-36 run on this circuit of late. #10 FORTUNA ( second half of the uncoupled entry w/Lisheen ) closes out the difficult finale.  OFF TURF: 7-1-8-6-3  NOTE: AS OF 2:41, WE ARE AMENDING OUR SELECTIONS TO 9-6-5.

  
Belmont            ( Current ):  20-149     ( $157.90 )  Beatable Favorites      5-8 ( 62.5% ) Favorites   Win %:     59-149   ( 42.1% )( As of Thursday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 3-17         ( $31.20 )   Beatable Favorites     0-1   ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:     5-17      ( 29.4% ) 


Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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