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With four favorites coming in yesterday, they are now on a 122 for 254 run ( 48% ) since closing weekend of the winter meet. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 5/16

 

Race  1

1.Frosty Storm

2.Yukio

3.Any Minute

#2 FROSTY STORM showed absolutely nada when starting things out at Indiana Downs a baker's dozen days back, but barn has done well with dirt maidens at the stand ( 5:2-0-1, $3 & $23 ), and as there don't appear to be any world beaters signed on, we'll give this one a second shot at a price. #3 YUKIO ( uncoupled barnmate with the above ) trailed throughout in the turf bow, but is better bred for the brown stuff and should show some improvement today. #6 ANY MINUTE ( one half of the uncoupled Rudy Rod entry ) has been tightened up a bit in his final two works leading up to today's overture and draws well.   NOTE: AS OF 10:49, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'S 5 & 1 WILL BE OUR SECOND & THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

 

 

Race  2

1.War Stroll 

2.Outrageous Bet

3.Duncastle

#1 WAR STROLL was fanned extremely wide in his first try off a long break, and ended up in the back half of the field against slightly tougher on this course. The good news is that this one has a 7:1-2-2 mark in second off the shelf engagements on the gramma, and has a one of two mark when loading first. Mild choice. #5 OUTRAGEOUS BET hasn't been seen since the second day of the year, but gelding has hit the board in three of four turf starts off a respite, and his finest work has come at today's trip. #3 DUNCASTLE is the clear speed of this deal and has placed in both turf tries off a break; Cardenas ( off the schneid Thursday ) will be gunning from the get go.  OFF TURF: 1-4-5-3-2(MTO)

 

Race  3

1.Value Creation

2.Small Talk

3.Landbiscuit

#1 VALUE CREATION ( one part of the uncoupled Chad Brown entry ) bested only one when starting things out at Hallandale Beach three months in the rear, but went for $410,000 at auction, and is extremely well bred for this sorta deal, and Irad gets the assignment. #6 SMALL TALK has matured nicely in his four year old year, posting his best three numbers to date, and should be right there once again. #2 LANDBISCUIT displayed appreciable improvement from the first start to the next, and that piqued the interest of some, as this one appears to have been privately sold afterwards. New conditioner Mott adds the wonder drug today, and calls on Jose as well.  OFF TURF: 5-3-4-2-1

 

 

Race  4 

1.Writer's Regret

2.Yankee Empire

3.Ernie Banker

#3 WRITER'S REGRET didn't do diddly poo in either of his last two trips to the track, but that's not really much of a surprise, as this one has beaten home only six in four wet track outings. There may be some hidden value here, as this one has yet to finish off the board in his other quartet of outings, and the adjusted 72.6 from his last start over a glib surface definitely fits with these. #2 YANKEE EMPIRE was in the rear with the gear when coming back off a 7+ month sabbatical, but is confidently doubled in price after that day's claim, and why not, as this one was a snappy $14 winner in his sole "2nd off the L/O" deal on the sand. #5 ERNIE BANKER completed the triple in his only third off the L/O jammie & has never been entered this cheaply. 

 

Race  5

1.Iron Giant

2.Bail Out

3.Not Stormy 

#7 IRON GIANT outran his odds when closing out the superfecta at 48-1 in the initial turf attempt, and did it with Harkie in the saddle, which is like having a pizza oven your back. Cancel climbs aboard this afternoon, and the turf pedigree ( 366 Tomlinson ) says to us that there's ample room for improvement -- and at a big price again. #2 BAIL OUT is approaching professional maiden territory, but it's difficult to leave out a runner who's partaken in the super in 12 of 18 turf engagements. #6 NOT STORMY rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 1-9-6-2-8

 

 

Race  6 

1.Itsakeyper

2.Rising Bella

3.Shesadirtydancer

#4 ITSAKEYPER hasn't faced the starter since besting just the chase ambulance at Gulfstream Park back in early February, but Albertrani charge has a tidy 5:2-1-0 ledger when coming in off a layoff, and that stands out against the 17:0-1-2 record otherwise. Good to see Looie hop on. #1 RISING BELLA returned off a year L/O ( nearly to the day ) to split a weaker allotment down south on March 21st, and is eligible to move forward with that tightener under her girthstrap. #11 SHESADIRTYDANCER didn't do much to get the heart thumping in her lone turf outing, but is better bred for it than the dirt, and some of the main track starts are pretty honest, so let's give this miss one more shot.  OFF TURF: 8(MTO)-5-2-3-6

 

Race  7

1.Lot of Honey

2.Madame Rose

3.Lass

Excellent race to go walk the marmot, however, if you must...   #1 LOT OF HONEY has been working slow & steady for today's initial trip to the races, but that's what Jimmy does with his firsters -- gives them time to come into their own. As a matter of fact, he was on an 0-27 run with his firsters over the last five years ( actually a lot longer than that ) before snapping the skein with the talented but ill fated Prospect Mountain back in November ( and at 62-1, to boot ! ). Dam is a full to Bank Sting, who just won her third straight start a month back in Ozone Park ( Hmmmm.... ) and mommy was 1 for 2 over a fast Belmont surface. Things to like. #4 MADAME ROSE faded after a half in the most recent, but was a lively runner up in the dirt try prior to that and is a threat if able to revisit that effort. #10 LASS was as flat as a Pre-Columbus earth when going over the blades first time out, but switches to what will likely be her preferred surface down the road and gets a good slot. 

 

 

Race  8 

1.Call Me Harry

2.Valmont

3.Discretionary Marq

#5 CALL ME HARRY hasn't faced the starter since mid December, but has been transferred to a trainer who's having a nice year and will be ridden by a jock who's having a stellar meet. Slimmest of margins in a race with but one first draft elimination. #2 VALMONT is one of two on the Inner, and said victory came beneath Manny Man; would like to see this one get back to his rating tactics a bit. #6 DISCRETIONARY MARQ is three fer six on this course and what the hell's wrong with that?  OFF TURF: 1(MTO)-8(MTO)-5-4-2

 

Race  9 

1.Dang It

2.Catch That Party

3.Coragescontender

#9 DANG IT displayed some nice early hoof in his one and only turf route back in December, and although the number came back a bit on the low side, we like the improvement shown when going short on the sod, and would like to see this one on the front end setting some soft splits. #1 CATCH THAT PARTY is a rare "Sam Houston to Belmont Park" shipper, and if you can look past the ugly running lines on the dirt, Grey gelding has a couple'a decent adjusted turf Beyers from 2020. There's a lot of water under the bridge since then, so it's a bit of a guessing game as to whether this one can regain some of that form. #6 CORAGESCONTENDER is out of form lately, but has a 1 for 3 mark with a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump, and said tally came on this oval.  OFF TURF: 9-6-3-4-1

  


  
Belmont            ( Current ):  20-140     ( $157.90 )  Beatable Favorites      5-8 ( 62.5% ) Favorites   Win %:     59-140   ( 42.1% )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 3-16         ( $31.20 )   Beatable Favorites     0-1   ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:     5-16      ( 31.3% ) 


Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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