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Just a reminder that for today's Preakness coverage, merely go back one page. 

With a whopping SIX favorites coming in yesterday, they are now on a 118 for 243 run ( 48.6% ) since closing weekend of the winter meet.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 7 - #11 Quick Nick


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 5/15

 

Race  1

1.Truth Hurts

2.Flashndynamite

3.Alandra

#3 TRUTH HURTS bested only one when returning off an elongated absence last time out, but posted an adjusted 86.8 in her only second start off the layoff attempt and won his only start going a flat mile. Slight edge in a wide open opener. #5 FLASHNDYNAMITE comes in today on a blase' 3:0-0-1 run of late, but was facing stakes foes in each, and had a 10:6-1-1-1 streak prior to that. 8:4-1-2 mark at the trip jumps off the page ( screen ) and the 4:1-0-2 mark when going 2X to 1X helps matters as well. #2 ALANDRA is a bit of an in and outer, but got her photo taken after her sole spin on this strip, and should give a good account of herself. 

 

 

Race  2

1.Second Fortune

2.Wicked Easy 

3.Micro Me

#5 SECOND FORTUNE has shown nothing in the last duet, but we go anywhere in a maiden's past performances to find something positive, and this one had a couple'a decent running lines just prior to those. Icicle in the saddle today, and when they're on a streak like that, it's best to demand value. #9 WICKED EASY hung up an adjusted 47.4 in his lone two turn to one engagement, and while that's well shy of stellar, keep in mind it came without Lasix & Blinkers which are now a part of the makeup. #6 MICRO ME ( uncoupled entrymate with 'Easy ) has the hood added & goes from an apprentice to a journeyman here. 

 

Race  3

1.Great Blake

2.Matty's Express

3.Effinity

#4 GREAT BLAKE was claimed for $16,000 more than a month back at Oldsmar, and may prove to be a shrewd claim by Mike Dini, as this New York bred is still eligible for the A1X condition with an 80K pot. Gelding has closed out the exacta in four of five turf starts, and possesses a 2:1-1-0 record when sprinting in 3rd off the L/O deals. #3 MATTY'S EXPRESS hasn't been seen since turkey time, but collected the diploma in his only start off the shelf, and is a factor if fully cranked up. #1 EFFINITY has changed barns since flopping in the Funny Cide back in September, and returns sans tes-tee-klees for Noda; 3YO was a lively runner up in his one and only start at BEL.  OFF TURF: 5-1-6-3-8(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 11:38 P.M. THURSDAY, #1 WILL BE OUR TOP SELECTION.

 

 

Race  4 

1.Storm Advisory 

2.Shamrocked

3.Batterbatterswing

#4 STORM ADVISORY down the lane. #3 SHAMROCKED has been a popular item at the claim box with a change of addresses after five of his last six, and why not, as gelding often tries hard and owns a sweet 9:4-3-1 "declining" mark in Elmont. Pre claim pilot returns, which we always like to see, and they'll likely have to grab this one by the tail to get the glory. #7 BATTERBATTERSWING ( a line from "Ferris Bueller's Day Off" ) has struck out in his last octet, but is 7:2-1-1 when last to load, and may spice things up beneath.  NOTE: AS OF 10:54, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  5

1.Rejected Again

2.Red Storm Risen

3.Arham

#3 REJECTED AGAIN nearly went all the way when facing what we would consider to be a tougher allotment a baker's dozen days in the rear, elevating the initial BSF by four points, so right off the bat, who knows where his ceiling is in that regards. Given the average fractions shown in the most recent, we wouldn't be surprised to see Trevor rate this one just a bit. Mild choice. #2 RED STORM RISEN has been a part of the super in seven of his last eight, and that includes a showing the only time he was in a third off the break scenario. #2 ARHAM has done little wrong to date, and while not particularly well bred for the gramma, we'll toss in because of his gameness.  OFF TURF: 1-2-3-5-1A

 

 

Race  6 

1.Stunning Munnings

2.Easter Chocolate

3.Cadeau de Paix 

#7 STUNNING MUNNINGS was a slightly rank but honest runner up vs. slightly weaker a bit over a week back, and is reunited with her favorite pilot this afternoon, as Hernandez ( oh-fer-40 on the stand ) is 6:1-2-1-1 w/ this gal. Filly has a sweet 5:2-2-0 ledger when breaking from the outermost two slots on the dirt ( compared to being 15:0-3-5 in all other heats ) and could sit a nice stalking trip. #1 EASTER CHOCOLATE ( Wadja do first when you were a kid -- snap the ears off or take out the eyes? ) accumulated a nice 3:1-2-o boxscore down in Oldsmar, but was privately purchased after the maiden breaker, and handed over to The Toddster. Obvious factor if ready. #3 CADEAU DE PAIX was reclaimed by Bobby Klesaris for $4,000 more than what he lost her for, and why not, as she showed a profit for the connections in her quartet of outings this annum. 

 

Race  7

1.Senor Phelps 

2.Unlikely

3.Hoping and Praying 

#3 SENOR PHELPS was in the back half of the field in his lone turf try, but the adjusted figaro from that day was a 59.7, and gelding broke a bit awkwardly that day. It's encouraging to see the improving morning moves since April 18th, and we'll take a swing at a solid numbah. #6 UNLIKELY got banged around a touch at the onset last out, but still outran his offering that day when finishing fourth at 44-1. Sensible addition, but man....Harkie. #2 HOPING AND PRAYING begins his working life today, and not only was the sire 8:2-3-0-2 going over the blades, but mommy was 6:1-1-0 on the stuff as well.  OFF TURF: 10(MTO)-2-8-1-9(MTO)  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #11 QUICK NICK has a paltry 258 Tommy for the turf, so why would we take 2-1 ?

 

 

Race  8 

1.Fastelle

2.Gallina

3.Constitutionalrage

#10 FASTELLE has only beaten home two in as many starts to date, but is on the verde for the 1st time, but dam lost by less than a length when finishing 3rd in her only try on the green stuff, and this one is a half to Out of Trouble, who is 27:5-4-6 on the lawn ( 253 large ). We've seen worse longshots. #1 GALLINA didn't show much in her only start on this surface, but hey, it was just her debut, and blinkers & the wonder drug are now a part of her makeup. Gal was showing some nice improvement before being sidelined. #2 CONSTITUTIONALRAGE had a slightly troubled beginning to her turf bow back in the fall, but in typical Barclay fashion, has been given some time to come into herself, and now gets the big "L" administered.  OFF TURF: 7-1-8-6-3

 

Race  9 

1.Mad Munnys 

2.Heirloom Kitten

3.Musical America

Draw a line through the most recent of #5 MAD MUNNYS, as this one is now 3:0-0-0 going long on the lawn, and by doing such, you're looking at two decent running lines before that. Could surprise in a race with no first draft eliminations. #2 HEIRLOOM KITTEN showed zippo in the Stud Muffin, but went back to back in both starts prior to that, and owns a snazzy three for four boxscore at today's distance of ground. We like how this one is still kept above the purchase price & that Junior is enticed to ride. #4 MUSICAL AMERICA is a bit of a nibbler by nature, but we're digging the 5:2-3-0 record at a mile and will chunk beneath. 

 

 

Race  10

1.Lexinator

2.Can't Buy Love

3.Sleek Lynx ( GB )

Featured race is upon us, and like many turf sprints, it's a highly competitive one.  #8 LEXINATOR returned off a five month break in the action to display some uncharacteristic early zip at the end of April, but may have needed that, and has a big shot if able to get back to the lone firm course heat, where an 86.6 ( adj. ) was the end result in a 25-1 showing. #3 CAN'T BUY LOVE has hit the board in all her turf dashes but one, and could be a square number here despite that. #2 SLEEK LYNX (GB) has gone 71-73-75 in her troika of starts going over firm ground and goes two turns to one for the first time.  OFF TURF: 7-2-1-9-4

 

Race  11

1.Oliver's Fortune 

2.Freudian Analyst

3.Triple Americano

#3 OLIVER'S FORTUNE was up the track with no palpable excuse 13 days back, but will now have Lasix coursing his veins, and switches surfaces as well. The turf pedigree leaves a bit to be desired, but colt takes the biggest drop in the game & may perk up for a barn that's developed a nice turf sprinter in Sanctuary City. #8 FREUDIAN ANALYST is a professional maiden these days, but tosses in a decent effort from time to time and may grind out a share. #2 TRIPLE AMERICANO closes out the long day.  OFF TURF: 8-1-3-9-5(MTO)

  
Belmont            ( Current ):  18-120     ( $154.20 )  Beatable Favorites      4-6 ( 66.7% ) Favorites   Win %:     49-120   ( 40.8% )( As of Friday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 3-22         ( $31.20 )   Beatable Favorites     0-1   ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:     9-22      ( 40.9% ) 


Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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