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One was the loneliest number for us here yesterday, as four more favorites came in, as they are now on a 112 for 234run ( 47.9% ) since the closing weekend of the winter meet. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 9 - #12 Ghostmon


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 5/14

 

Race  1

1.Gambling Cat

2.Lullula

3.Hohohoho

#1 GAMBLING CAT got up in time to best a softer allotment down in Oldsmar two dozen days back, and is now two of three routing over firm ground. From a tiny sampling, Maker is 2 for 5 w/ turf stayers who tallied a win 41-67 days ago at this level ( $11 & $4 ). #2 LULLULA has never been farther back than 2 1/2 lengths at the line in her four starts to date, and we're expecting another solid performance today. #5 HOHOHOHO ( out of 'Holiday Kiss', ya get it ? ) wasn't in the giving spirit to her backers when burning some bread in finishing fourth at 3-1 in the Bayou last time out, but has done fine work on the turf and deserves a chance to make amends.  OFF TURF: 1-2-3(MTO)-5-4

 

 

Race  2

1.Social Group

2.Potts Entry

3.Anzio Beach

#7 SOCIAL GROUP has yet to miss a superfecta, finds himself at his lowest level to date, and went from a 60 to a 73 on the Beyer scale from his first start to the next, so who knows where his ceiling is in that regards. Slight edge. Both the #1 THE BIG S ( barn 3-11 with freshly purchased mid level dirt stock who won 16-50 days back -- $6, $13 & $5 ), and #1A ROAD TO MEATH ( two for two in second off the L/O engagements with the shedrow being 3 fer 9 with first off the claim sand sprinters who were 1-2-3 22-50 days in the rear -- $6, $12 & $5 ) comprise decent factions of the Wayne Potts entry. #6 ANZIO BEACH ( named after the Battle of Anzio, who's history can be found right here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Anzio ) was a snappy victor right here on the first of the month, and makes sense right back.

 

Race  3

1.Chewing Gum 

2.Maxwell Esquire

3.Penalty

Couple'a decent sets of DRF Formulator stats in play here, so let's get right to 'em...  #6 CHEWING GUM ( by 'Candy Ride' ) will be led over my Mott, who's a saucy 3 for 6 with optional turf dashers who haven't been seen in 99-367 days ( $17, $8 & $4 ); 3:1-1-1 mark right here duly noted. #4 MAXWELL ESQUIRE ( a snappy three fer five on the Widener ) is conditioned by C-Squared, who owns a sweet 12:6-4-0-1 ledger with runners of this ilk who won less than three fortnights ago ( $6, $7, $5, $19, $4, $3 & $6 ). #1 PENALTY found the line first in his only "true" 3rd off the layoff engagement, and six year old horse who still has all his parts may grind out a share from today's inside slot.  OFF TURF: 1-2-7-6-4

 

 

Race  4 

1.Mr. Briggs

2.Royal Realm

3.Doctor Doom

#3 MR. BRIGGS led at every point of call but the final one when starting things out at Hallandale Beach a month back, and has blinkers added off that effort. When it comes to his Belmont based male maiden special weight second timers on the dirt off L/O's of 47 days or lower, The Toddster is 7 for 13 with a positive return on investment. #5 ROYAL REALM overcame some gate issues ( for the second time in a row ) to rally late & pick up 20% of the pot in this race at Ozone Park on April 9th, and while a regression is always possible -- being second time Lasix and all -- we'd be remiss in excluding. #2 DOCTOR DOOM has been a part of the super in his last sextet & makes all kids of sense. 

 

Race  5

1.Re Created

2.Hard Count

3.Searching for Gold

We're not feeling the mojo here, so use some caution.  #3 RE CREATED did just that to himself when transitioning to the gramma last time out, closing out the triple beneath Manny Man at a whopping 47-1. Surprised it's taken this long for him to try the gramma, as he's substantially better bred for it than the brown stuff, but perhaps Rick wanted him to fill out a bit while getting some experience. may be overlooked at the betting windows once again. #7 HARD COUNT is a bit of an in and outer, but owns a second & a third from as many "third off the layoff" jammies, and is confidently hiked in class by Falcone, who's off to a scorching start at the stand ( 5:4-0-1 ). #1 SEARCHING FOR GOLD has always given a good account of himself and picks up Carmouche.  OFF TURF: 1-2(MTO)-5-9-3

 

 

Race  6 

1.Hammerin Aamer

2.Ekhtibaar

3.Direct Order

#9 HAMMERIN AAMER was a horse we ( unsuccessfully ) nudged a friend to claim not that long ago, given his fondness for the strip ( 9:2-2-2-1 ), and you can forgive the recent flop against $16,500 foes, as this one's level seems to be right here or maybe a notch below. Baby Englehart more than doubles his normative 15% batting average with second off the snag, mid level sand sprinters who crashed the fiesta < 40 days back, as he's 8:3-1-2-1 in that regards, with payoffs of $23, $14 & $9. #8 EKHTIBAAR ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) has never seen seen these depths, and is a threat if able to get back to the penultimate effort. #3 DIRECT ORDER is two for five in this zip code, and may land a share. 

 

Race  7

1.Fight On Lucy

2.Irish Constitution

3.My Roxy Girl

#6 FIGHT ON LUCY has a propensity for tossing in a clunker after 1-3 good races, so we're willing to look past the recent flopola -- especially as it came in the goo, over which she's proven to be about 20% less on the Beyer scale. Last two wins have came beneath today's pilot, and as they paid $55 & $65, we have no qualms with taking a shot in a wide open affair. #7 IRISH CONSTITUTION is 4:2-1-0 over a glib surface, with the aforementioned placing being her sole start on Big Sandy. We love when a trainer isn't scared to make am equipment/medication change after a win, and blinks are now a part of the equation after the March score. #4 MY ROXY GIRL has been our favorite horse in training for quite some time now, and why not, as this $1,400 purchase has proven to be the "Best Valued" NYB female sale of all time, as she's netted nearly $550,000 thus far in a very nice career; would like to see her rate a bit today. 

 

 

Race  8 

1.Civil War

2.Dr Jack

3.Stage Raider

#4 CIVIL WAR has a nice 3:2-0-0-1 mark outside of stakes company ( 3:0-0-0 otherwise ) and out forth a career best fast track number when receiving the wonder drug for the first time 26 days in the rear. We're landing on an 0-40 rider in back to back races, but to quote Pachanga from 'Carlito's Way' -- "It beez that way sometimes, Poppy." Mild choice. #1A DR JACK ( also entered today in Maryland ) went all the way at first asking in GP on the second of April, and the solid bloodlines ( as well as the 380 Tomlinson for the trip ) tells us the result was likely not an aberration. #2 STAGE RAIDER procured the sheepskin by a pole when relishing the Lexington mud a tad over a month ago, but always be leery of taking short odds on a "burst through" wet track winner -- especially off a layoff.  NOTE: AS OF 12:15, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  9 

1.Interstate ( AE )

2.Eight Weeks Long

3.Jade's Dream

#14 INTERSTATE (AE) needs a pair to get the sniffles to draw into the body of the race, but should that come to bear, would be bringing a turf pedigree which has daddy at 10-2-2-2 ( 179G ), and a champion paternal grandsire as well. Hernandez again?? Yikes. Well, at least we see that the only two times Sciacca brought over a first time turfer/first time router at 51-1 or less, he won with one of them ( $54 ). #10 EIGHT WEEKS LONG has shown improvement with each passing turf start and goes over a firm course for just the second time. #9 JADE'S DREAM has some decent early hoof and will likely be on the choo choo for as long as possible.  OFF TURF: 4-8-5-1-2  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #12 GHOSTMON fills the bill as Rudy Rod is 0-15 with second time routers on the turf off breaks of 55 days or less.  NOTE: AS OF 12:19, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Belmont            ( Current ):  18-120     ( $154.20 )  Beatable Favorites      4-6 ( 66.7% ) Favorites   Win %:     49-120   ( 40.8% )( As of Friday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 3-16         ( $31.20 )   Beatable Favorites     0-1   ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:     5-16      ( 31.3% ) 


Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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