KevinCoxItem


Just a reminder that for today's full  card selections & analysis for Belmont Park, merely go back one page. 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): #3 Medina Spirit


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Graded Stakes - 5/15 - Preakness

 

 Race 13

1.France Go de Ina

2.Crowded Trade

3.Midnight Bourbon

#7 FRANCE GO DE INA was decently regarded by some heading into the UAE Derby, but got taken out of his game a bit ( normally a mid pack to front end type ) when breaking tardily, and falling to the back of the pack, effectively losing all hope. Timeform figures don't quite get the pulse racing, but recognize that both wins were accomplished in hand, and gets the services of a sizzling pilot who's one of the best finishers in the game. Take a look during the warmups, as this one got spooked while galloping Wednesday morning, dumping the exercise rider. #4 CROWDED TRADE showed stark improvement from the first start to the second, but took the overland route in the Wood, closing out the tri at 5-2. Pedigree says this one is bred to do good things at two turns, so we'll give him another chance. #5 MIDNIGHT BOURBON got smacked around pretty good in Louisville, and was four wide on both turns under Smith as well. Big rider upgrade this afternoon to Irad and we're expecting a solid effort.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 MEDINA SPIRIT re-broke at the top of the lane to "win" the Kentucky Derby for Lidocaine Bob, but as is becoming an all too familiar case with Baffert's stock, tested positive for an illegal drug ( shocker ) afterwards, and said "win" is still pending the split sample. After a flurry of interviews, Baffert admitted to administering an ointment to the horse and ( sorta ) said that could be the result for said positive. DRF Formulator doesn't have a category for "First time off cream", so we're willing to take a stand against on the win end. 

  

 

Belmont            ( Current ):  17-111     ( $147.20 )  Beatable Favorites      4-6 ( 66.7% ) Favorites   Win %:     45-111   ( 40.5% )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 3-22         ( $31.20 )   Beatable Favorites     0-1   ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:     9-22      ( 40.9% ) 


Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


  CoxLA2017