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Profitable three bagger for us here yesterday, along with two ice cold doubles ( $50 & $31 ), an ice cold $30 exacta ( along with a $22 exacta reverse ), an ice cold $15 quinella, and an ice cold $250 pick three ( along with a rolling pick three for $315 ). We continue to pad our profit for the meet, and have a positive ROI for the last 823 races going back 5 1/2 months ( to Labor Day weekend ). 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 2/21

 

Race  1

1.Mia Calia

2.Mill Stone Creek

3.Day's Humor

These three and no more to start our action for the day. #6 MIA CALIA ( who should be no worse than 3rd here, for all you show punters ) comes in today off a career best numero, ( at 50-1, no less ) and sheds five pounds off that effort while drawing ideally. #2 MILL STONE CREEK bested more than half the field at double digit odds first time out, and can complete the "Edmund Exacta" beneath the hot pilot. #1 DAY'S HUMOR takes the biggest drop in the game while sliding in to the pine. 

 

Race  2

1.Storm Shooter 

2.Halpert

3.The King Cheek

#4 STORM SHOOTER has speed, class, and now -- the wonder drug. Race goes through this one. #5 HALPERT is another who's receiving Lasix for the first time, and is eligible to rebound while catching a fast track for just the second time. #1 THE KING CHEEK has gone coast to coast like butter and toast in two of three ( one of them from the wood ), with the lone blemish in that troika coming versus stakes foes. Best chance is to outbreak the top choice. 

 

Race  3

1.Eight Weeks Long

2.Patty O'Marc

3.Another Shot 

#5 EIGHT WEEKS LONG has been beset by a couple of layoff lines recently, but is second off the shelf in this spot while getting a better pilot at the helm. Mild choice. #2 PATTY O'MARC is a firster with decent breeding who couldn't land in a softer spot for the curtain raiser. #3 ANOTHER SHOT barely beat home the chase ambulance when last in action, and the effort was so grisly, that a claim on him was voided that day. The good news is that the "Master of the fedora" -- Kelly Breen -- doesn't bring over any sore animals, and this one now has eye cups affixed for today's 2nd start with juice. Big shot if able to get back to the penultimate try.  NOTE: AS OF 10:32, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 7-5-3.

 

Race  4 

1.Orazio

2.Smile Bryan

3.Vitesse

#1 ORAIO displayed nothing in the initial dirt try, but we always give a runner two attempts over a particular surface before discounting their chances, and this one has a Tomlinson ( 359 ) which tells us that appreciable improvement isn't out of the realm of possibility for the new shotcaller. Trevor sees fit to ride. #8 SMILE BRYAN finds himself at his lowest level to date and has hit the board in three of four in Ozone Park. #2 VITESSE encountered a bit of trouble in the most recent, and deserves another shot -- especially as he found the line first in his sole start when first to load. 

 

Race  5

1.Rejected Again

2.O'Trouble

3.Gozilla

#6 REJECTED AGAIN has done fine work at this trip, over this strip, and recently showed a new dimension when coming from off the pace. This one may get overlooked a bit in the wagering department, and is the kind of horse that you'll be kicking yourself afterwards should he get the job done. #1 O'TROUBLE has missed the board but once in his abbreviated career, and makes all kinds of sense after the snappy win right here when beginning from the inside. #2 GOZILLA has started but once in the last 16 months, but has been working light's out at Casse's training facility for his first start in the aforementioned's barn, and gets the meet's leading rider. 

 

Race  6 

1.Cause to Dream

2.Mun Luv

3.Maracuja

#2 CAUSE TO DREAM showed marked improvement when returning off the freshening ( with Lasix, of course ) to complete the super in an honest effort when outperforming the better half of her entry that day, and while a bounce is always possible, we'll lean towards the "Light bulb has come on" train of thought. #3 MUN LUV is a little bit of an in and outer, and while the last was extremely disappointing, we'll chunk in because of the other dirt forays. #5 MARACUJA immolated some baccala when finishing 3rd at 4-5 about a month ago, but we can't leave out, given the two ITM finishes. 

 

Race  7

1.Rhythm Section

2.Tiergan

3.Dust Devil

Wide open affair here...  #7 RHYTHM SECTION goes turf to dirt for the first time in this spot, and that's fine by us, as this one appears to be better bred for the brown than the green. Roan Ridgling is in a 2nd off the layoff situation today, and would be no surprise. #1A TIERGAN was a well clear runner up vs. weaker on the second of January, and the winner from that day got the job done when next in action, slightly improving in the BSF dept. by two points in the process. We'll chunk in despite the class hike. #9 DUST DEVIL took the obligatory hike in claim a month ago, and rewarded his new owners with a visually impressive victory against conditional foes. Four year old is now protected against being purchased, and is a threat once again. 

 

Race  8 

1.Family Biz

2.Daddy Knows

3.Malibu Star

#7 FAMILY BIZ only had three days left in jail after the 1/3 claim, but was confidently hiked up in class, and responded with a two length winner for Rice ( who still has an investigation pending by the state ), and two runners from that heat went 2:1-1-0 in their followup engagements, improving their figs by 13 & 11 pts. respectively. 4 of 15 record at today's distance stands out against the 1-13 mark otherwise. #2 DADDY KNOWS has posted back to back career best speed #'s, and obviously digs the seagulls here, as proven by that 3 fer 5 local mark. #4 MALIBU STAR has gone 69-80-92 in all three 1X dirt deals thus far, so right off the bat who knows where his ceiling is in that regards. Toss the last routeing attemopt, and you have the looks of a live runner here. 

 

Race  9 

1.Grit and Glory

2.Blugrascat's Smile

3.Heavy Roller

Despite being kept in jail after the December 13th purchase, #2 GRIT AND GLORY was placed in a very tough spot six weeks later, and only beat one home. Gelding goes from an apprentice to a journeyman in this spot, and is now below the price claimed. Hmmmmm...... #3 BLUGRASCAT'S SMILE has hit the board in more than half of his lifetime trips to the track, and should be right there once again. #5 HEAVY ROLLER closes out our week.  NOTE: AS OF 10:36, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Aqueduct        ( Current ):    61-310     ( $695.20 ) Beatable  Favorites    5-11( 45.1% ) Favorites  Win %   108-310   ( 34.8% ) ( As of Sunday morning )


Aqueduct Fall     ( Final ):      28-175     ( $454.00 ) Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Belmont              ( Final ):     42-267     ( $370.40 ) Beatable    Favorites   1-16  ( 6.3% )   Favorites Win %      90-267   ( 33.2% )  

Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):       10-54     ( $122.40 )  Beatable Favorites    0-1   (  0% )        Favorites Win %:    17-53   ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2750-14059 ($23,795.50) Beatable Favorites : 359-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5312-14141 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2835-14627 ($24,613.40)  Beatable Favorites : 374-1380( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5475-14728 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


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