Track: Del Mar
Race Date: 11/13/2026
Prepared By: TrackSmart AI's Advanced Artificial Intelligence Racing Engine
Every race features AI-driven pace projections, Top 3 win contenders, and upset alerts — designed exclusively for players at SaratogaBets, BataviaBets, EmpireCityBets, and Capital OTB.
The Machine operates independently of the Morning Line. Unlike standard handicapping models that lean on public sentiment or oddsmaker predictions, TrackSmart AI generates its figures blind—before the Morning Line is even released. Pure Fundamental Analysis: AI selections are derived 100% from performance data, pace mechanics, and class algorithms. The Machine does not know who the "favorite" is supposed to be.
Race 1 — Maiden Special Weight / $65,000 / 6 1/2 Furlongs (Dirt)
AI Confidence Rank: #7 Combined Win % (Top 3): 92%
AI Pace Projection & Race Dynamics
Projected Race Shape: Unsettled — an honest tempo, but with a high concentration of unproven juvenile speed, how the early positions sort out is uncertain.
Early Speed Edge (TS Ignition / TS Surge): No proven controlling speed. #6 Bold Type carries an A TS Ignition and A TS Surge profile and has the foot to secure a forward position from the outside post.
Late Kick Advantage (TS Closer): #2 Cyprus Avenue, tracking just off the pace with a C+ TS Closer grade.
Deep Flow Analysis: Break: #6 Bold Type shows enough early foot to get forwardly placed but must work from the outside draw. Turn: The lack of reliable early pressure keeps the tempo honest and opens the door for #2 Cyprus Avenue and #1 Ala Sawab to secure ideal tracking trips. Stretch: Expect the stalkers to carry the best momentum into the lane.
The Pace Beneficiary: #2 Cyprus Avenue holds the Garden Spot tracking just off the pace.
The Machine's Selections
#6 — Bold Type
Normalized TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 45%
The Setup: Racing every three to four weeks with form holding, he makes his third start in a lateral spot for a top-percentage barn.
The Edge: Owns an A TS Velocity grade, an A+ TS Power Score, and an A TS Caliber — a massive class capacity edge over this field. Co-tops the card at a 100 Normalized TPN with the stronger early profile.
TrackSmart Alert: Class Capacity Edge
#1 — Ala Sawab
Normalized TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 35%
The Setup: Second career start off a 76-day freshening, backed by a hot trainer-jockey combination and sharp works in the AM.
The Edge: The engine confirmed a clear excuse in the debut and reset the figure; the B+ TS Velocity grade is a floor, not a ceiling, and natural second-start improvement draws him level at a 100 Normalized TPN.
TrackSmart Alert: Trouble-Trip Rebound
#2 — Cyprus Avenue
Normalized TPN: 85 | Win Probability: 12%
The Setup: Third-start juvenile on a forward trajectory with consecutive B+ TS Velocity grades and sharp works in the mornings.
The Edge: An A- TS Ignition grade and A TS Power Score let him stalk from the Garden Spot; the cleanest tactical trip in the race offers exotic upside.
#5 — Bid
Normalized TPN: 76 | Win Probability: 3%
The Setup: Most experienced runner in the field, racing on an ideal three-to-four-week cycle.
The Edge: Scored back to sprint dirt form after recent off-surface routes; a C TS Velocity grade requires a sizable step forward.
The Machine's Final Analysis
This is a two-horse race on the numbers, with #6 Bold Type and #1 Ala Sawab tied at the top of the Normalized TPN scale. Bold Type's A TS Ignition and A TS Surge give him the tactical position Ala Sawab must earn, and his A+ TS Power Score anchors the class edge. Use both defensively in exactas, with #2 Cyprus Avenue the stalker to include underneath.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection)
#3 — Et Al
Normalized TPN: 75 | Win Probability: 2%
Angle: Best recent lines have come routing on turf; turns back to a dirt sprint and needs to adapt.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #4 slot if any Top 4 selection is scratched.
Race 2 — Claiming $8,000 / 1 Mile (Dirt)
AI Confidence Rank: #2 Combined Win % (Top 3): 89%
AI Pace Projection & Race Dynamics
Projected Race Shape: Controlled / Honest — an honest tempo with a rival able to keep the leader honest.
Early Speed Edge (TS Ignition / TS Surge): #6 Tessuto holds the front-running edge, validated by an A TS Ignition and A+ TS Surge.
Late Kick Advantage (TS Closer): #2 Big Juanito, the best closer in the field with an A- TS Closer grade.
Deep Flow Analysis: Break: #6 Tessuto projects to clear from the outside draw while #4 Leyas Candy offers early pressure. Turn: The tempo is brisk, but the controlling speed has the tactical clearance to manage the middle fractions. Stretch: Tessuto holds the tactical advantage turning for home, while #2 Big Juanito stalks from the inside and attempts to run down the leader.
The Pace Beneficiary: #2 Big Juanito holds the Garden Spot tracking just off the pace.
The Machine's Selections
#6 — Tessuto
Normalized TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 57%
The Setup: Dropping in class to the basement level off a 47-day freshening, with sharp works signaling strong morning readiness.
The Edge: An A+ TS Velocity grade, A+ TS Power Score, and A TS Caliber give him a massive class capacity edge, and the A+ TS Surge projects him to control the tempo. Leads the field by four Normalized TPN points.
TrackSmart Alert: Proven Class Drop
#2 — Big Juanito
Normalized TPN: 96 | Win Probability: 25%
The Setup: Dropping in class from his last start and racing on an ideal three-to-four-week cycle.
The Edge: Holds an A TS Velocity grade, an A TS Power Score, and the field's best A- TS Closer; owns a 5-2-1-1 record over this track.
#3 — Wizard of Westwood
Normalized TPN: 87 | Win Probability: 7%
The Setup: Lateral move, back 13 days after his last start.
The Edge: An A TS Surge grade and A TS Power Score give him tactical position in a stalking role; the value play underneath.
#4 — Leyas Candy
Normalized TPN: 82 | Win Probability: 5%
The Setup: Lateral spot for a seasoned veteran who knows this track well.
The Edge: An A TS Ignition grade guarantees he pressures the leader, but a C TS Velocity grade last out leaves him vulnerable if he engages the top pick.
The Machine's Final Analysis
#6 Tessuto takes a massive class drop and owns the speed of the speed, with an A+ TS Surge that lets him dictate terms in a controlled pace. #2 Big Juanito is the logical danger with the best TS Closer in the field, but Tessuto's A+ TS Velocity and A+ TS Power Score make him a strong single in multi-race wagers.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection)
#7 — Keep Movin' On
Normalized TPN: 78 | Win Probability: 4%
Angle: Flat figures over recent starts; needs a forward move to factor.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #4 slot if any Top 4 selection is scratched.
Race 3 — Maiden Special Weight / $65,000 / 5 Furlongs (Turf)
AI Confidence Rank: #5 Combined Win % (Top 3): 84%
AI Pace Projection & Race Dynamics
Projected Race Shape: Unsettled — an honest tempo, but with a field full of first-time starters and lightly raced runners, the early speed is unproven.
Early Speed Edge (TS Ignition / TS Surge): No proven controlling speed. #6 Ocean Club carries an A TS Ignition and A TS Surge and has shown positional speed in previous starts.
Late Kick Advantage (TS Closer): #6 Ocean Club tracks just off the pace with a C+ TS Closer grade, while #5 Forest Warrior and #3 Gallant Jack look to close.
Deep Flow Analysis: Break: #6 Ocean Club has the experience and early foot to sit a prominent trip while the debut runners sort themselves out. Turn: The lack of proven speed benefits horses capable of rating just off the leaders. Stretch: Ocean Club holds the tactical advantage, while #5 Forest Warrior and #3 Gallant Jack make their late bids.
The Pace Beneficiary: #6 Ocean Club holds the Garden Spot tracking just off the pace.
The Machine's Selections
#6 — Ocean Club
Normalized TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 45%
The Setup: The only runner with exposed form, making his sixth start on a steady cycle with an improving TS Velocity trend.
The Edge: An A+ TS Power Score and A- TS Caliber anchor the field, and his A TS Ignition delivers proven early foot against a green field. Holds a seven-point Normalized TPN margin.
TrackSmart Alert: Experience Edge
#5 — Forest Warrior
Normalized TPN: 93 | Win Probability: 22%
The Setup: First-time starter by Jackie's Warrior out of a Forestry mare, a $170,000 auction purchase.
The Edge: Elite pedigree for a five-furlong turf dash supports a live debut; working steadily in the mornings.
TrackSmart Alert: Live Debut Pedigree
#3 — Gallant Jack
Normalized TPN: 90 | Win Probability: 17%
The Setup: Second career start off a 56-day freshening for a hot trainer-jockey combination.
The Edge: The engine confirmed a clear excuse in the debut, resetting the C TS Velocity grade; a B+ TS Power Score and natural second-start progression make him the value play.
#4 — Jet E Z
Normalized TPN: 87 | Win Probability: 11%
The Setup: First-time starter by Essential Quality, a $550,000 auction purchase.
The Edge: Heavy price tag and a solid connection, but tepid barn debut stats temper the projection.
The Machine's Final Analysis
In a field lacking proven speed, #6 Ocean Club is the only runner with exposed form and the A TS Ignition to put himself in the right spot early. His A+ TS Power Score sets the bar the first-time starters must clear on debut, and the tactical edge heavily favors him from the Garden Spot.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection)
#1 — Savvy Motive
Normalized TPN: 70 | Win Probability: 3%
Angle: Flat debut figure; needs a meaningful step forward in his second start.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #4 slot if any Top 4 selection is scratched.
Race 4 — Claiming $16,000 (N3L) / 6 1/2 Furlongs (Dirt)
AI Confidence Rank: #4 Combined Win % (Top 3): 79%
AI Pace Projection & Race Dynamics
Projected Race Shape: Crowded Early Speed — an honest tempo, but with five speed-styled runners and no committed front-runner, early positions will be contested.
Early Speed Edge (TS Ignition / TS Surge): No lone controlling speed. #1 Chase N Ryan (A- TS Ignition, A- TS Surge), #3 Cagey Burglar (A- TS Ignition), and #6 Lead Pipe Joe press the pace.
Late Kick Advantage (TS Closer): #7 Mio Bambino, stalking outside the cluster.
Deep Flow Analysis: Break: #1 Chase N Ryan, #3 Cagey Burglar, and #6 Lead Pipe Joe all vie for position without ensuring a fast tempo. Turn: The bunched fractions keep the pack together. Stretch: #7 Mio Bambino gets the ideal tracking trip outside the cluster and capitalizes on the class drop to power home.
The Pace Beneficiary: #7 Mio Bambino holds the Garden Spot tracking just off the pace.
The Machine's Selections
#7 — Mio Bambino
Normalized TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 45%
The Setup: Dropping in class into basement claiming and racing on a steady three-to-four-week cycle.
The Edge: An A+ TS Power Score and A TS Caliber give him a massive class capacity edge, backed by an A TS Velocity grade two starts back. Leads by ten Normalized TPN points.
TrackSmart Alert: Class Capacity Edge
#1 — Chase N Ryan
Normalized TPN: 90 | Win Probability: 20%
The Setup: Dropping in class from his last start for a hot trainer-jockey combination.
The Edge: Consecutive B+ TS Velocity grades with an A- TS Ignition and A- TS Surge, and a sharp 5F move signals strong morning readiness. A live overlay at his projected price.
TrackSmart Alert: Live Overlay
#4 — Ballyhooligan
Normalized TPN: 85 | Win Probability: 14%
The Setup: Lateral move back to a dirt sprint after recent off-surface routes, racing on an ideal cycle.
The Edge: Consecutive B+ TS Velocity grades with balanced B+ TS Ignition and B+ TS Surge from the Garden Spot; a second live overlay for exotics.
#3 — Cagey Burglar
Normalized TPN: 82 | Win Probability: 9%
The Setup: Returns off an 85-day freshening in a lateral spot.
The Edge: Three straight B+ TS Velocity grades show consistency, but the numbers trail the top pair and he must engage a crowded pace.
The Machine's Final Analysis
A crowded pace with no clear front-runner keeps the early tempo honest but bunched, and the clustered speed horses battle without pulling away. That setup perfectly favors #7 Mio Bambino, whose A+ TS Power Score and class drop make him the most likely winner. #1 Chase N Ryan and #4 Ballyhooligan offer excellent exotic value underneath.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection)
#2 — Bowtie Boys
Normalized TPN: 79 | Win Probability: 6%
Angle: Needs a step forward off the bench to threaten this group.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #4 slot if any Top 4 selection is scratched.
Race 5 — Optional Claiming $50,000 / 5 Furlongs (Turf)
AI Confidence Rank: #3 Combined Win % (Top 3): 86%
AI Pace Projection & Race Dynamics
Projected Race Shape: Clear / Alpha Speed — a fast early tempo with a clear controlling speed.
Early Speed Edge (TS Ignition / TS Surge): #7 Legal Heir holds the front-running edge, validated by an A+ TS Ignition and A+ TS Surge.
Late Kick Advantage (TS Closer): #2 Chapter One, tracking just off the leader.
Deep Flow Analysis: Break: #7 Legal Heir projects to clear this turf sprint field from the outside. Turn: #4 Tees Touch and #2 Chapter One press, but the top early runner has the clearance to manage the pressure while the hot fractions keep the stalkers working. Stretch: Legal Heir dictates terms on the front end, leaving the stalkers to challenge late.
The Pace Beneficiary: #2 Chapter One holds the Garden Spot tracking just off the pace.
The Machine's Selections
#7 — Legal Heir
Normalized TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 52%
The Setup: Dropping in class from his last start and racing on a current cycle.
The Edge: Three straight B+ TS Velocity grades with an A+ TS Ignition and A+ TS Surge — he projects to control the tempo with a distinct tactical advantage. Holds a five-point Normalized TPN margin.
TrackSmart Alert: Controlling Speed
#4 — Tees Touch
Normalized TPN: 95 | Win Probability: 21%
The Setup: Returns off a 518-day layoff; works signal readiness.
The Edge: An A+ TS Power Score and A TS Caliber give him a massive class capacity edge on paper, with A TS Ignition and A TS Surge grades, but must fire fresh off the shelf.
#2 — Chapter One
Normalized TPN: 87 | Win Probability: 13%
The Setup: Lateral spot, back 14 days after his last start.
The Edge: Posted an A TS Velocity grade last out with an A TS Ignition to sit the Garden Spot, though he may face regression after that peak effort. A live overlay for exotics.
TrackSmart Alert: Live Overlay
#5 — Artic Power
Normalized TPN: 79 | Win Probability: 7%
The Setup: Returns off a 257-day break in a lateral spot.
The Edge: B+ TS Velocity grades in his last two starts, but needs a step forward off the bench to threaten the top three.
The Machine's Final Analysis
#7 Legal Heir dictates this turf sprint from the outside, with his A+ TS Ignition and A+ TS Surge giving him clear control of a hot tempo. #4 Tees Touch brings the class but is fresh off a long layoff, and #2 Chapter One tracks right behind as the overlay. The class drop and pace control point to the front-runner holding on — a strong single in multi-race wagers.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection)
#3 — Sirnami
Normalized TPN: 75 | Win Probability: 3%
Angle: Scored on Del Mar form after recent off-track routes; flat figures leave him needing more.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #4 slot if any Top 4 selection is scratched.
Race 6 — Maiden Claiming $12,500 / 1 Mile (Dirt)
AI Confidence Rank: #8 Combined Win % (Top 3): 79%
AI Pace Projection & Race Dynamics
Projected Race Shape: Controlled / Honest — a fast early tempo, but how the early speed sorts out is uncertain in a twelve-horse field.
Early Speed Edge (TS Ignition / TS Surge): #12 Fine Irish Morning holds the front-running edge, validated by an A TS Ignition and A TS Surge.
Late Kick Advantage (TS Closer): #11 Duke of Orleans, stalking with a B+ TS Closer grade.
Deep Flow Analysis: Break: #12 Fine Irish Morning aims to clear early from the outside in a fast-paced battle. Turn: The brisk tempo tests the front-runners. Stretch: The fractions take a toll on the leaders, setting the stage for #11 Duke of Orleans to inherit the lead from a stalking position, while #1 He's Got Fire tries to close from mid-pack.
The Pace Beneficiary: #11 Duke of Orleans holds the Garden Spot tracking just off the pace.
The Machine's Selections
#12 — Fine Irish Morning
Normalized TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 41%
The Setup: Lateral spot, back seven days after his last start on a steady cycle.
The Edge: An A TS Power Score and A- TS Caliber top this basement maiden claimer, and his A TS Ignition and A TS Surge secure the tactical edge. A live overlay with a five-point Normalized TPN margin.
TrackSmart Alert: Live Overlay
#11 — Duke of Orleans
Normalized TPN: 95 | Win Probability: 29%
The Setup: Dropping in class with a massive 50%-plus claiming drop to the basement.
The Edge: Three straight B+ TS Velocity grades with balanced B+ TS Ignition, B+ TS Surge, and B+ TS Closer grades — built to stalk and strike late.
TrackSmart Alert: Golden Parachute Drop
#1 — He's Got Fire
Normalized TPN: 89 | Win Probability: 9%
The Setup: Lateral spot after a 57-day break, with sharp works in the AM.
The Edge: An A+ TS Power Score and A TS Caliber give him upside, but he has never raced at a route distance and may face regression after his best effort.
#4 — Halninethousand
Normalized TPN: 86 | Win Probability: 4%
The Setup: Lateral spot, racing regularly with sharp works in the mornings.
The Edge: Posted a B+ TS Velocity grade last out and holds a B+ TS Closer, but the numbers trail the top pair; the longshot exotic threat.
The Machine's Final Analysis
#12 Fine Irish Morning establishes a fast tempo from the outside, and in a basement maiden claimer with exposed form, his A TS Ignition and A TS Power Score put him in command. The pressure tests his stamina, providing the setup for #11 Duke of Orleans to save ground and strike late off the severe class drop. A big field keeps confidence modest, but lean heavily on #12 in all slots.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection)
#6 — Lucky Sniper
Normalized TPN: 82 | Win Probability: 3%
Angle: Needs a step forward off the bench; highest-rated runner outside the Top 4.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #4 slot if any Top 4 selection is scratched.
Race 7 — Optional Claiming $20,000 / 1 Mile (Dirt)
AI Confidence Rank: #1 Combined Win % (Top 3): 82%
AI Pace Projection & Race Dynamics
Projected Race Shape: Controlled / Honest — a fast early tempo with a rival or two able to keep it honest.
Early Speed Edge (TS Ignition / TS Surge): #3 Piper's Causeway holds the front-running edge, validated by an A TS Ignition and A+ TS Surge, with #4 Majestic Palisades (A+ TS Ignition, A+ TS Surge) right alongside.
Late Kick Advantage (TS Closer): #1 The Gypsy Cowboy holds the Late Kick Advantage with an A- TS Closer grade.
Deep Flow Analysis: Break: #3 Piper's Causeway and #4 Majestic Palisades battle for the early lead, setting a hot tempo. Turn: The bias suppresses a total meltdown, giving the edge to the controlling speed through the middle fractions. Stretch: The contested fractions take a toll on the leaders, setting the stage for #5 Sogno Di Vino and #1 The Gypsy Cowboy to run them down from off the pace.
The Pace Beneficiary: #1 The Gypsy Cowboy is the primary beneficiary of the pace.
The Machine's Selections
#5 — Sogno Di Vino
Normalized TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 58%
The Setup: Lateral spot, racing on a steady cycle with an ascending TS Velocity trend.
The Edge: Owns an A TS Velocity grade last out, an A+ TS Power Score, and an A TS Caliber — a massive class capacity edge. Holds a commanding 14-point Normalized TPN margin, the widest on the card.
TrackSmart Alert: Best Bet of the Card
#4 — Majestic Palisades
Normalized TPN: 86 | Win Probability: 14%
The Setup: Lateral spot, back 14 days after an A TS Velocity effort.
The Edge: A+ TS Ignition and A+ TS Surge grades give him proven grit up front, but he must survive the early duel to stick around late.
#1 — The Gypsy Cowboy
Normalized TPN: 84 | Win Probability: 10%
The Setup: Lateral spot for a hot-percentage trainer, racing on a steady cycle.
The Edge: Posted an A TS Velocity grade last out and carries the field's best A- TS Closer — the pace setup fits his late kick perfectly.
#3 — Piper's Causeway
Normalized TPN: 83 | Win Probability: 8%
The Setup: Lateral spot for a seasoned veteran, racing on a steady cycle.
The Edge: An A TS Velocity grade last out with an A+ TS Surge, but a C- TS Closer leaves him vulnerable to regression off a pace duel.
The Machine's Final Analysis
#3 Piper's Causeway and #4 Majestic Palisades battle for the early lead, setting a hot tempo that sets up the field's late runners. #5 Sogno Di Vino sits the ideal spot off the duel, and his A+ TS Power Score, A TS Velocity grade, and 14-point Normalized TPN margin make him the most confident selection on the card. Key him in all exotics.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection)
#6 — Keep Dancin Nick
Normalized TPN: 82 | Win Probability: 6%
Angle: Moves up on his dirt return after recent turf routes.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #4 slot if any Top 4 selection is scratched.
Race 8 — Maiden Claiming $50,000 / 1 Mile (Turf)
AI Confidence Rank: #6 Combined Win % (Top 3): 79%
AI Pace Projection & Race Dynamics
Projected Race Shape: Turf / Late Kick Priority — a fast early tempo, but how the early speed sorts out is uncertain, putting the premium on turn of foot.
Early Speed Edge (TS Ignition / TS Surge): #1 Velvet Reign holds the front-running edge, validated by an A- TS Ignition and A- TS Surge.
Late Kick Advantage (TS Closer): #6 Silkie Sevei has the best turn of foot for the stretch, carrying a B+ TS Closer grade.
Deep Flow Analysis: Break: With minimal committed early speed in this turf route, #1 Velvet Reign and #9 Ronilla vie for position. Turn: The hot fractions test the pack. Stretch: #6 Silkie Sevei relies on a superior turn of foot to accelerate past the field, while #4 Preclude and #3 Chair's Coin launch their late bids.
The Pace Beneficiary: #6 Silkie Sevei, the turn-of-foot closer the setup favors.
The Machine's Selections
#6 — Silkie Sevei
Normalized TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 45%
The Setup: Lateral spot for a hot trainer-jockey combination, with a confirmed excuse last out.
The Edge: Owns the field's best turf figure with an A TS Velocity grade, an A+ TS Power Score, and an A TS Caliber. Holds an eight-point Normalized TPN margin.
TrackSmart Alert: Trouble-Trip Rebound
#4 — Preclude
Normalized TPN: 92 | Win Probability: 20%
The Setup: Fourth career start off a 68-day freshening in a lateral spot.
The Edge: An A+ TS Power Score and A TS Caliber edge this soft field, and his A- TS Closer delivers a dangerous late kick.
#1 — Velvet Reign
Normalized TPN: 90 | Win Probability: 14%
The Setup: Lateral spot, racing on a steady cycle.
The Edge: An A TS Caliber with A- TS Ignition and A- TS Surge grades gives him solid tactical speed and the early position.
#3 — Chair's Coin
Normalized TPN: 82 | Win Probability: 6%
The Setup: Dropping in class in his third start off a 197-day break, with ascending figures.
The Edge: Prime third-off peak-performance setup with a B+ TS Closer, though the numbers trail the top pair.
The Machine's Final Analysis
#1 Velvet Reign and #9 Ronilla inherit the lead and dictate a hot tempo that keeps the pack working through the turn. The setup favors #6 Silkie Sevei, whose A TS Velocity grade and A+ TS Power Score top the field and whose turn of foot carries him past the tiring leaders. #4 Preclude's A- TS Closer makes him the main danger.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection)
#8 — Bourbon Story
Normalized TPN: 80 | Win Probability: 5%
Angle: Highest-rated runner outside the Top 4; needs a step forward off the bench.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #4 slot if any Top 4 selection is scratched.
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