Just a reminder that for today's full card selections & analysis for Aqueduct, merely go back one page.
I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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Graded Stakes - 11/27 - Del Mar - Hollywood Derby
1.Cathkin Peak ( Ire )
2.Public Sector ( GB )
3.Sifting Sands ( GB )
#3 CATHKIN PEAK (IRE) has stepped up in class after each & every start, culminating with a career best effort in the Twilight Derby ( 95.7 adj. ), and did such despite being a bit tardy to the party once they sprung the latches. Colt gets a jock switch to the best rider in the nation, and 17% shotcaller is 8 for 18 with turf stayers who crashed the fiesta < 54 days back ( 23-1 or undah ) that are NOT getting the miracle drug today. ( Positive R.O.I. in that regards ) #6 PUBLIC SECTOR (GB) shoots for the grand salami here, and given the way this one has improved with each passing start ( sans the B.C. ) we can't fault those taking a favorable view. #8 SIFTING SANDS (GB) took the overland route in the Hill Prince, and ended up finishing in the back half of the pack after winning two straight. Uncoupled barnmate with 'Sector shouldn't be overlooked, as he's vastly improved over his last troika. OFF TURF: 1-11-2-5-10
Aqueduct ( Current ): 18-86 ( $126.20 ) Beatable Favorites 1-7 ( 14.3% ) Favorites Win %: 30-86 ( 34.8% ) ( As of Saturday morning )
Graded Stakes ( Current ): 10-68 ( $87.50 ) Beatable Favorites 1-3 ( 33.3% ) Favorites Win %: 31-68 ( 45.6% )
Aqueduct ( Final ): 86-464 ( $989.40 ) Beatable Favorites 5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites Win %: 162-464 ( 34.9% )
Aqueduct Fall ( Final ): 28-175 ( $454.00 ) Beatable Favorites 1-9 ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win % 56-175 ( 32.0% )
Graded Stakes ( Final ): 10-54 ( $122.40 ) Beatable Favorites 0-1 ( 0% ) Favorites Win %: 17-53 ( 32.1% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):
( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465 ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%) +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Beatable Favorites : 15-68 ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587 ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6% against a 15.6% takeout
Dirt Tracks 2013-21 (All Final):2836-14523 ($24,784.90) Beatable Favorites : 364-1327( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5474-14605 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.7% against a 16.7% takeout
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 2921-15091 ($25,602.80) Beatable Favorites : 379-1395( 27.2% )Favorite's Win %: 5637-15192 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.6% takeout