KevinCoxItem

 

Just one winner on the day yesterday, but it was enough to secure us a flat bet profit for the fourth straight day.

ALL routes today?? Don't think I've ever seen that here before.

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #2 Winston C ( Ire )  Race 3 - #2 Quiet Dignity


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Saratoga - 8/22 - N.Y. Turf Writer's Handicap

 

Race  1

1.Belisarius ( Arg )

2.Modem ( GB )

3.No Wunder ( GB )

Featured race of the day is the highlight of the summer steeplechase program -- the N.Y. Turf Writer's Handicap. For some history on this historic race ( won three consecutive times by Happy Intellectual at ages of 10 through 12 ) feel free to go to this website https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_Turf_Writers_Cup  . This year's rendition leaves a bit to be desired, but we feel there may be some value from a wagering standpoint. #6 BELISARIUS (ARG) ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) hasn't shown much in his last two outings over the hurdles, but gets in at a feathery 142 this afternoon ( an impost with which he finished 2nd in the 2019 debut ), and may surprise if he goes. #1 MODEM (GB) is another who disappointed in the most recent, but is 3rd off the L/O today, and could pose a threat if able to get back to some of that form from way back -- but that's a big "if" -- tread lightly. #3 NO WUNDER (GB) ( uncoupled barnmate with the above ) owns a win over the course & is another getting in light.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: The Smithwick/Turf Writer's double has never been easy to accomplish, and the #2 WINSTON C (IRE) will be led over by a man who's 1-12 with stakes jumpers who won less than 56 days ago ( 0-4 in graded stakes ). 

 

Race  2

1.Purchasing Power

2.Internet of Things

3.Lucky Bet

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #4 PURCHASING POWER has been freshened up a bit since the turf flop on June 2nd, and loses the eye cups while being returned to the purchase level from nine weeks back. Chestnut runner has done fine work going two turns, and this barn is 2 for 5 with mid level dirt stock in the 58-104 day bracket ( $5 & $9 ). #2 INTERNET OF THINGS is a $170,000 Klaravich purchase who can be all yours for less than 1/10th of that amount here. From a small sampling, Brown is 2 fer 5 when going turf to dirt with his mid level stayers who missed the $ 7-57 days back ( FTC ). #7 LUCKY BET goes green to brown, owns some zip, and is dropped below the level claimed two starts ago. Could be dangerous if able to shake free early on. 

 

Race  3

1.Cottonwood Falls

2.Cap de Creus

3.Silver Shaker

#7 COTTONWOOD FALLS has improved with each passing start & Morley is 2 for 5 with second off the shelf turf stayers at this level who missed the board last out ( 16-1 or less ), with mutuels of $5 & $9. #4 CAP DE CREUS comes in today off a career best performance, and Pletcher has won with two of five runners of this ilk who were ITM in the most recent & are beneath the 12-1 watermark ( $9 & $18 ). #3 SILVER SHAKER has hit the board in both "2nd off the L/O" attempts and has blinkers added today.  OFF TURF: 2-4-6-1-7  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #2 QUIET DIGNITY will be led over by a man who's 0-9 with locally based 2nd off the L/O turf stock at this level.

 

Race  4 

1.Sargeant Drive

2.Bumperdoo

3.Claytnthelionheart

We're seeing this race as easy as 1-2-3 ( not really, but ain't we clever? ). #1 SARGEANT DRIVE makes his first start off the claim today for Atras, who is a whopping 9:5-3-0-1 when entering that type in a dirt event off a break of less than two fortnights ( 7-1 or lowah ). The R.O.I. for that sampling is a hefty $3.76, and there's a sub category of 1 for 1 with routers. #2 BUMPERDOO positively adored the blinker addition at the end of May, besting maiden platers by five, and while a regression is always possible, perhaps the light bulb stays on. You can essentially use the above comment for the #3 CLAYTNTHELIONHEART, substituting "blinkers" with "front wraps" and "five" lengths with "one". 

 

Race  5

1.Blessingsofliberty

2.Sweet Leaf

3.La Negrita

#2 BLESSINGSOFLIBERTY didn't show much in the bow, nut that doesn't bother us one iota, as Trombetta ( 15% on the norm ) is a sweet 5:3-1-0-1 with second timers at this level trying the sod & two turns for thsi first time at 38-1 or less ( OTB first time out ). The winners came back a juicy $4, $38 & $50, and as a matter of fact, the placing was @ 10-1. The dam was 1 for 4 going long on the lawn, the maternal grandsire was one of the greatest turf stayers, and this one is a half to Mr. Massena who is 3-11 in turf routes ( 130G ). The more we type, the more we like for our play of the day. Employing the "Diamond in the Rough" methodology with the #1 SWEET LEAF here, as there's a crisp half mile breeze amidst a bevy of ordinary morning moves. #3 LA NEGRITA ( who's not really black, but rather dark bay or brown ) could perk up with the addition of blinkers today. 8-9(MTO)-1-5-3  NOTE: AS OF 12:26, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

 

Race  6 

1.Cowtown

2.Lucky Curlin

3.Mo and Go

#5 COWTOWN begins his working life this afternoon, and does so with a crisp 47 & 2 gate move nicely tucked away in the worktab, and $15,000 bred runner ( who went for 260K ) is a half to Whoa Nellie, who won her lone dirt route. #1 LUCKY CURLIN improved from his first start to the next, and is pretty much just as evenly bred for two turns as one; must use. #3 MO AND GO is eligible to improve off the initial turf try.

 

Race  7

1.The Great Johanna

2.Tatterazzi

3.Freddymo Factor

#7 THE GREAT JOHANNA outran her odds in the comebacker for Jimmy Ferraro, and did such despite encountering difficulty at the onset. The distance shouldn't be an issue, and filly showed marked improvement in the lone second off the break attempt ( over the preceding outing ). #10 TATTERAZI is another who got smacked around a bit in the aforementioned heat, and pedigree says that there's some room for improvement in this corner. #5 FREDDYMO FACTOR split the field at 35-1 when returning off an elongated absence, and has eye cups added in this spot.  OFF TURF: 7-8-10-14(MTO)-2  NOTE: AS OF 12:31, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 7-10-4.

 

Race  8 

1.Blugrascat's Smile

2.Calculated Risker

3.Playthatfunnymusic

#3 BLUEGRASCAT'S SMILE will be led over by a shotcaller who has a crisp 4:3-0-1 boxscore with those going long at this level on the sand ( 51-75 days ), with mutuels of $15, $6 & $3. That's good enough for us in a race bereft of any true standouts. #1 CALCULATED RISKER is one for three when beginning from the pine at 2X and is 2:1-0-1 at The Spa. #6 PLAYTHATFUNNYMUSIC won the only time he went from 1X to 2X, and altogether, owns a 4:2-2-0 ledger at two turns. Gelding is 2 for 5 when starting from the outside & 2 for 4 when toting 116 pounds or less. Things to like. 

 

Race  9 

1.Varenka

2.Catch a Bid

3.All Quality

#1 VARENKA has won three of four, shoots for the hat trick today, is 3:2-1-0 right here ( with the wins coming on firm & yielding ground ), and is two fer two when starting from the innermost two slots; sensible selection. #6 CATCH A BID lost by only a neck to the above in their July 14th encounter, and gets a four pound & one post position break in her favor today ( from the most recent ). Mainger danger. #5 ALL QUALITY is less than a length shy of an unblemished mark & goes 2X for just the second time. Would be no surprise beneath Johnny V., who's picked it up of late ( on a 5 for 18 run after starting out the meet 5 for 69 ).  OFF TURF: 4(MTO)-3-1-2-6  NOTE: AS OF 12:44 FRIDAY, DUE TO AN EARLY SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-6-9.

 

Race  10

1.Azzedine ( Fr )

2.Tony Small

3.Noble Spirit

#2 AZZEDINE (FR) showed decent early hoof from a disadvantageous post a week and a half ago, getting over to be just 2 1/2 lengths off of a sizzling 22 & 4 opening quarter, then cut his own second fraction of 23.50 to grab the lead on the backside in what was a bizarrely run race for several. With maidens we go anywhere to find something positive ( as they're maidens for a reason after all ), and this one posted some decent figaros here last year. Bombs away in a race where our entire first draft has some negative trainer stats attached to them.#7 TONY SMALL gets the "around the world"treatment today -- first time turf, first time blinkers, first time tag & first time gelding. Would only need to find one of those agreeable to find the winner's circle...for the first time. #10 NOBLE SPIRIT is 3rd off the shelf & gets the wonder drug while taking the biggest drop in the biz today.  OFF TURF: 4-6-3(MTO)-8-10  NOTE: AS OF 12:33, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 9-11-1.

 


Saratoga           ( Current ):    44-293       ( $328.10 )  Beatable Favorites  8-20   ( 40.0% )     Favorites Win %:  106-293  ( 36.2% )(As of Thurs. morning) 

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Belmont Spring     ( Final ):    90-447      ( $697.60 )  Beatable Favorites  6-33 ( 18.2% )      Favorites Win %:   172-447 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring   ( Final ):    32-110      ( $322.60 )  Beatable Favorites   1-4  ( 25.0% )      Favorites Win %:    39-110  ( 35.5% )

Aqueduct  Winter ( Final ):     73-374     ( $490.60 )   Beatable Favorites: 7-23 ( 30.4 % )     Favorites Win %:   150-374 ( 40.1% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):     5-32         ( $54.20 )     Beatable Favorites: 0-3    ( 0.0% )       Favorite's Win %:    9-32     ( 28.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-377   ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 128-377  ( 34.0% )  +/-: -26.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568        ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2258-11020 ($18,829.30) Beatable Favorites : 318-1148( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4062-11127 ( 36.5% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.7% takeout ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2343-11588 ($19648,50)  Beatable Favorites : 333-1216( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 4186-11599  ( 36.1% ) +/-: -15.2%  against a 16.4% takeout


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