KevinCoxItem

 

We closed out the week with our third straight profitable day, something to hang our hat on heading into the homestretch. 

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Saratoga - 8/21 - Steeplechase Day

 

Race  1

1.Veneer of Charm ( Ire )

2.Chief Justice ( GB )

3.Storm Team

#4 VENEER OF CHARM (IRE) got a nice, confidence building score on the flat at Delaware 39 days ago, and after beating home just nine in his previous five outings, that may be what the doctor ordered. Hendricks ( 18% day to day ) has won three of four with ungraded jumpers who won their last & are 8-1 or less. ( Odds estimated as of this writing. ) #7 CHIEF JUSTICE (GB) owns a win & a placing from as many starts off the shelf and gets in light. #1 STORM TEAM completes the "Guinness-Fish & Chips-Apple Pie" triple based on the two showings from three starts in "2nd off the L/O" attempts. 

 

Race  2

1.Team Win

2.Mo Moxie

3.Bellera

A five horse field with two uncoupled entries? Really ??  Anyway, there are three solid DRF Formulator trainer stats in play here, so let's get to 'em directly.  #4 TEAM WIN: T.P. wipes the competition clean with optional dirt routers who won less than three fortnights ago, as he's a whopping 19 for 41 in that area, with a sub category of 1 for 1 right here. #3 MO MOXIE: Kiaran ( from a small sampling ) is 2 fer 3 with second off the L/O optional dirt stayers who hit the board 28-50 days back, and this one has a win & a runner up finish in 2nd off the shelf forays. #2 BELLERA: The Toddster has won with three of six optional dirt stayers who procured the diploma 42-50 days back.

 

Race  3

1.Rejected Again

2.Florida Flash

3.Brady's Place

#4 REJECTED AGAIN was a lively runner up when 28 1/2 lengths clear of the 3rd place finisher ( in a three horse field ) at Big Sandy on June 28th, and Gary Gullo owns a tight 5:3-1-0-1 ledger with second time starters in maiden claiming dirt dashes off breaks of 2 months or less ( $9, $4 & $5 ). Colt should be on the choo choo early. #2 FLORIDA FLASH is showing a nice work on August the 2nd for today's initial foray, and this son of the hot sire, Constitution, is a half to a 5-11 dirt sprinter who banked nearly 148 large. #5 BRADY'S PLACE went for more than eight times the stud fee at auction last year and closes out the tri.

 

Race  4 

1.Pillar Mountain ( Ire )

2.Highland Sky

3.Red Knight

Today's feature is named after the venerable John's Call, who never let time slow him down... #4 PILLAR MOUTAIN (IRE) has improved over his last troika & shoots for the hat trick this afternoon. Colt will need some pace to cut into, but we like the way that Pletcher has brought this one along. #1 HIGHLAND SKY has a boatload of back class and won his lone start over this course ( first time out ), but will likely be overbet, so we'll leave beneath. #5 RED KNIGHT is another classy sort with a local win, and it's hard to argue with that 12:6-2-1 lifetime mark on the sod, ain't it?  OFF TURF: 3-4-5-1-2  NOTE: AS OF 11:02, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 5-3-1.

 

Race  5

1.Jewel of Arabia

2.Never Heard of Her

3.Courageous Girl ( AE )

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #7 JEWEL OF ARABIA split the field when debuting in a local stakes a bit over a month ago, and adds Lasix off that effort. Deserving chalk. #8 NEVER HEARD OF HER is displaying a bit of an odd workout pattern leading up to today's overture, but one can't argue with the times of those recent gate moves, and could cause trouble for the fave if able to cross over & kick some dirt back in that one's grill. #13 COURAGEOUS GIRL (AE) needs a lotta luck to draw into the body of this heat, but has worked well since flashing some early speed in the bow, and will be breaking from an advantageous slot.  NOTE: AS OF 11:18, DUE TO A SCRATCH & THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 2-12-11.

 

Race  6 

1.Legend of Bam

2.Smite 

3.Montana Man

Extremely difficult race to decipher here, so tread lightly... #4 LEGEND OF BAM has a couple of nicely hidden workouts amidst a slew of ordinary morning moves, and this one is a half to a 1 for 4 turf router ( 42G ), and we'll give this part of the uncoupled Rudy entry a tepid nod. #1 SMITE earned a decent figaro when closing out the superfecta first time out, but in researching our library of old Racing Forms, we see that this one is somewhat better bred for the "chipping than the driving". ( Hey -- we may have just created a new horse racing axiom ! ) Leaving beneath. #2 MONTANA MAN was dropped out of a dam who went 4-20 in turf routes ( 248 big ones ) and is a half to three winning turf routers from four foals to race.  OFF TURF: 6-1-4-5-9  NOTE: AS OF 11:41, DUE TO THE DISTANCE BEING 7 FURLONGS, THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.  NOTE: AS OF 2:39, DUE TO AN ERROR, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Keeping the Peace

2.Air On Fire

3.So Conflated

#6 KEEPING THE PEACE shoots for the hat trick here, and Rudy Rod is a crisp 4 for 6 with those who won 5 days ago or less & are 5-1 or lower ( $2.90 return on investment ). #4 AIR ON FIRE takes the obligatory hike in class after being claimed from a sharp 14KN3L event a couple'a dozen days back, and we always like when the pre claim pilot sticks around. Rice ( from a small survey ) is a nice 2 for 4 with locally stabled first off the snag dirt sprinters who were in the money last time out, and we expect another solid effort in this spot. #7 SO CONFLATED is showing a bullet gate move on August the 14th, and that's always a positive sign for one who likes to come from off the pace.  NOTE: AS OF 11:45, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 1-2-7.

 

Race  8 

1.Morissette

2.No Blame

3.Golconda

#8 MORISSETTE was heading in the right direction before getting smacked around at the onset of last week's event right here. Filly drops down in class this afternoon, and Sharp is just that with turf sprinters who crashed the party less than two weeks ago, as he's 3 fer 6 in that regards ( $3, $7 & $11 ). Mild choice. #9 NO BLAME ( uncoupled barnmate w/the above ) tries the grass for just the second time, and we always fear these Charlie Town dashers on the sod, as sometimes their speed can carry them a long way. #5 GOLCONDA is available for purchase for the first time today.  OFF TURF: 4(MTO)-2-7-8-5-11  NOTE: AS OF 11:49, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 7-9-2.

 

Race  9 

1.Thorny Tale

2.Amundson

3.Six Percent

We have three tight Formulator stats in play here, so let's get right to 'em.  #2 THORNY TALE is a classy & consistent chap who goes turf to dirt today, which is of some relevance, as Weaver is a dreamy 12:8-0-2 when doing that with those off breaks of 55-66 days at 10-1 or less, and has a whopping $7.15 ROI as well. #7 AMUNDSON is backed by a 5-8 trainer stat which has DePaz at exactly that with his 3rd off the bench dirt runners coming off absences of 28-50 days at 7-1 or lower ( $5.42 return on investment ). #8 SIX PERCENT: From an itty bitty sampling, Amoss has won with both of his allowance runners going green to brown & long to short ( < 58 days ) with returns of $8 & $5. 

 

Race  10

1.Itsakeyper 

2.Something Joyful

3.Sarahrini

#1 ITSAKEYPER has the "For Sale" sign attached to her butt for the first time in today's nitecap, and note that the lone score came when sitting a pocket trip on the inside. #12 SOMETHING JOYFUL is another with the initial tag here, and put forth a cracker jack performance in the one "3rd off the L/O" try. #3 SARAHRINI comes in today off a lifetime best performance, and although the turf pedigree leaves a bit to be desired, sometimes speed can carry a runner if the bloodlines for a surface say otherwise.  OFF TURF: 15(MTO)-16(MTO)-6-1-5  NOTE: AS OF 12:28, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 15(MTO)-6-5.

  


Saratoga           ( Current ):    43-284       ( $309.90 ) Beatable Favorites  8-20   ( 40.0% )     Favorites Win %:  105-284  ( 37.0% )(As of Weds. morning) 

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Belmont Spring     ( Final ):    90-447      ( $697.60 )  Beatable Favorites  6-33 ( 18.2% )      Favorites Win %:   172-447 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring   ( Final ):    32-110      ( $322.60 )  Beatable Favorites   1-4  ( 25.0% )      Favorites Win %:    39-110  ( 35.5% )

Aqueduct  Winter ( Final ):     73-374     ( $490.60 )   Beatable Favorites: 7-23 ( 30.4 % )     Favorites Win %:   150-374 ( 40.1% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):     5-32         ( $54.20 )     Beatable Favorites: 0-3    ( 0.0% )       Favorite's Win %:    9-32     ( 28.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-377   ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 128-377  ( 34.0% )  +/-: -26.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568        ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2258-11020 ($18,829.30) Beatable Favorites : 318-1148( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4062-11127 ( 36.5% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.7% takeout ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2343-11588 ($19648,50)  Beatable Favorites : 333-1216( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 4186-11599  ( 36.1% ) +/-: -15.2%  against a 16.4% takeout


coxbel2019