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NOTE: IF THE 1ST & 3RD RACES ARE ON A WET TRACK, THEN OUR ORIGINAL "OFF THE TURF" SELECTIONS APPLY.

Back on track with a profitable three bagger yesterday.

Just a reminder that if you'd like todays Pacific Classic & Del Mar Oaks selections & analysis, merely go back one page.

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 7 - #6 Irish Mias


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Saratoga - 8/17 - Alabama Day

 

Race  1

1.Yankee Empire

2.Leading West

3.Acre

#8 YANKEE EMPIRE ( dig it ) has posted a couple of decent figaros in both starts to date, and January foal ( who has a maturity edge over most signed on ) will be led over by a 13% shotcaller who owns a crisp 7:3-1-1-1 ledger with maidens trying the turf for the first time, as well as going long for the first time at < 47-1 ( 1-53 days ). The winners came back a fat $84, $15 & $17, and there's a sub category of 2 fer 4 with those at this level. Dam was 1 for 4 with turf stayers, paternal grandsire had a 6:4-0-1 mark on the poly, and the maternal granddam finished 2nd the only time she tried the stuff. The more we type, the more we like for a viable price option in a race full of big name trainers conditioning ( what we consider ) suspect runners. #6 LEADING WEST outran her odds a bit in the 7/27 bow, and worked honestly on the Oklahoma sod just eight days ago. #10 ACRE is better  bred for the green than the brown, and wasn't disgraced in the dirt debut. Colt follows a pattern of other successful Mott turfers.  OFF TURF: 9(MTO)-5-2-3-10-6  NOTE: AS OF 11:39, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING OFF THE TURF AND A FEW SCRATCHES, THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  2

1.Figure It Out

2.Break Curfew

3.Slimey

After making an astute claim for $40,000 first time out of the box, Jimmy Ferraro has done some fine work with #3 FIGURE IT OUT since. Bay gal has earned $59,640 afterwards, and factoring in the purchase price of 40K, that gives the connections a net of $19,640. Subtracting jocks fees of $4,492, you know have $15,148. Take away the trainer's purses of $5,484, & that leaves you with $9,664. After deducting the day rate, blacksmith & medication amounts of about $19,664 (est.), the owners have a very solid horse and are only down ten large. That being said, they're sorta playing with house money, and this one is 2nd off the shelf today after a slightly troubled initial local foray, and rates a big shot if able to get back to the last outing over a fast track. Santana -- an exceptional rider -- needs to get after this one for all the minor spoils, should a win not be in the works, something that didn't come to bear on Wednesday, costing this barn 3rd place money by an unnecessary nose. #4 BREAK CURFEW has been befallen by a bevy of layoff lines, and although she's lost ground over her last quartet, must be tossed into the mix, given the overall collection of speed figures. #2 SLIMEY is 2 for 3 here and has won three of her last five.  NOTE: AS OF 11:40, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  3

1.Embellisher

2.High Rider

3.Storm Tower

#5 EMBELLISHER has a decent collection of figs & takes the biggest drop in the biz today while cutting back to what we feel will be hi preferred distance. Mild choice. #1 HIGH RIDER hasn't been seen in nearly the full length of a calendar, but his career best Beyer cam off an elongated absence, and there are a couple of bullets on display for today's return to action; Irad enticed to ride. #3 STORM TOWER is somewhat better suited for going short than long, and the dx. figaros ain't half bad; another who's in with a tag for the first time.  OFF TURF: 3-7-5-8-10  NOTE: AS OF 11:42, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING ON A FAST TRACK, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 3-6-1.  DUE TO A LATE, LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Giant Boo Boo

2.Desert Lights

3.Dooley

#4 GIANT BOO BOO has oodles of speed, owns the all important win over the course, owns three placings from as many outings at the trip, and finds himself at his lowest level to date w/the meet's leading rider assigned. Sensible selection. #3 DESERT LIGHTS always seems to find himself in the thick of things and got his Polaroid taken in the lone "3rd off the L/O" foray. Could grind out a placing with these. #7 DOOLEY could jazz things up in today's 2nd start off the L/O. 

 

Race  5

1.Devamani ( Fr )

2.Stella d'Oro 

3.Cape Angel

Curious to see the #2 DEVAMANI (FR) available for purchase today, as the five year oild is still eligible for those N3X deals, but whatever, man, this one is no worse than a 1-2-3 playah in today's spot ( for all you show punters ). Fella won his only documented start when breaking from the pine, and the race goes through him. #3 STELLA D'ORO got the job done in his U.S. debut, and as a matter of fact has yet to miss the board in three starts to date. Lone left handed start was a real corker, as he bested 13 others at the robust odds of 14-1, and we would LOVE to see this one @ 8-1 vs. these. #4 CAPE ANGEL is 3:2-0-1 on the inner, and we really don't need more of a reason than that to include.  OFF TURF: 5-8-3-1A(MTO)-6

 

Race  6 

1.All Systems Go

2.Bourbon in May

3.High Crime

#2 ALL SYSTEMS GO won his first time outta the box in a turf dash, and although he was off the board in both subsequent tries on the green, there was some trouble in those heats, and $450,000 auction purchase is in a 2nd off the break scenario today. #7 BOURBON IN MAY hasn't been seen since the first week of the year, but has done some good work thus far, and The Toddster has won with half of his six allowance dashers on the gramma off sabbaticals of 67-387 days ( 12-1 or undah ), with the winners coming back $11 & $5 x 2. #11 HIGH CRIME is a versatile sort who has crashed the board on the poly, on the turf, going two tuns & going one on the dirt. With this one's speed, a wire job is not out of the realm of possibility.  OFF TURF: 11-7-2-3-9  NOTE: AS OF 11:44, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Eagles Palace

2.American Butterfly

3.Unprecedented

#2 EAGLES PALACE bested half the field first time out, and that occurred without receiving the tidiest of sojourns. $15,000 bred animal went for 10X that amount at auction, so is obviously well meant, and we'll give this ridgling ( ouch ) a slight edge. #3 AMERICAN BUTTERFLY has fired off a bullet since last in action, and that likely came with the wonder drug administered, as it is now a part of the package for the first time. #5 UNPRECEDENTED has been a consistent performer in the mornings for the onset of his working life this afternoon, and went for a lotta baccala just three months back.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 IRISH MIAS fills the bill, as barn is motionless when adding blinks to their second time starters ( oh-fer-20, with just a 25% ITM rate ). 

 

Race  8 

1.Broadway Run

2.Morticia

3.Oleksandra ( Aus )

#8 BROADWAY RUN is 2:1-0-1 on the Mellon, has yet to miss a superfecta, and has blinks added for the first time. Mild choice. #5 MORTICIA is clearly the class of this field & it's difficult to argue with that 20 for 23 in the money rate, as well as the sweet "declining" mark at the dist of 19:8-5-4; her race to lose. #7 OLEKSANDRA (AUS) has done little wrong in her career & travels well. Should be rolling late.  OFF TURF: 3(MTO)-4(MTO)-6-9-5

 

Race  9

1.Regal Glory

2.Varenka

3.Vow to Recover

From a Beyer speed figure standpoint, #5 REGAL GLORY has improved with each and every start, has yet to finish out of the exacta, and is 2 for 2 with Saez in the irons. Tough to knock. #1 VARENKA has gotten the job done in two of three this year ( her only spins on firm going ), the most recent of which was an optional tally on opening weekend. Gal also closed out the exacta in a stakes ( as a maiden ) right here in '18, and seems to get along nicely with Javy. Will need to work out a perfect journey from today's inside slot. #3 VOW TO RECOVER is confidently shipped northward despite having been an also ran in the lone graded attempt, and was headed in the right direction until the recent Hallandale disappointment.  OFF TURF: 1-6-5-7-8(MTO)

 

Race  10

1.Street Band

2.Ulele

3.Point of Honor

#5 STREET BAND is really coming along nicely for Larry Jones, entering today off a lifetime best fig, and a victress in three of her last five. Gal was tightened up with a 59 & 4 breeze at Churchill on Monday, and $5,000 bred animal has already socked away 434K for the connections, so what's not to like? Underrated rider in Sophie looks to become the second gal to win a race here this week, and we can't remember the last time two ladies scored during the same meet up here, so wouldn't that be cool as well? That aside, this horse has a big shot at double digit odds, and as the chalk will be a bit overplayed off her one turn heats, we'll take a swing. #6 ULELE has never finished outside of the triple, and who are we to rock that boat? Feel free to draw an upwards arrow next to the #7 POINT OF HONOR, as this one is heading in the right direction for today's 2nd off the shelf try. 

 

Race  11

1.Sweet Meadow Mist

2.More Mischief

3.Trouble For Skylar

#2 SWEET MEADOW MIST was fanned eight wide in the most recent, but lost by less than two that day & is in receipt of a more advantageous post today. Lone other try over a glib surface ended up with a win, and this one will be sitting a pocket trip & looking for a seam late in the game. #5 MORE MISCHIEF has never finished out of the superfecta and we see no reason why she won't be a major factor once again. #9 TROUBLE FOR SKYLAR ( scratched Friday for this ) is 4:1-0-1 over the strip.

 


Saratoga           ( Current ):    37-263       ( $258.90 ) Beatable Favorites  7-18   ( 38.9% )      Favorites Win %:  97-263   ( 36.9% )( As of Sat. morning ) 

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Belmont Spring     ( Final ):    90-447      ( $697.60 )  Beatable Favorites  6-33 ( 18.2% )      Favorites Win %:   172-447 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring   ( Final ):    32-110      ( $322.60 )  Beatable Favorites   1-4  ( 25.0% )      Favorites Win %:    39-110  ( 35.5% )

Aqueduct  Winter ( Final ):     73-374     ( $490.60 )   Beatable Favorites: 7-23 ( 30.4 % )     Favorites Win %:   150-374 ( 40.1% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):     5-32         ( $54.20 )     Beatable Favorites: 0-3    ( 0.0% )       Favorite's Win %:    9-32     ( 28.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-377   ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 128-377  ( 34.0% )  +/-: -26.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568        ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2258-11020 ($18,829.30) Beatable Favorites : 318-1148( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4062-11127 ( 36.5% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.7% takeout ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2343-11588 ($19648,50)  Beatable Favorites : 333-1216( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 4186-11599  ( 36.1% ) +/-: -15.2%  against a 16.4% takeout


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