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One  was the loneliest number for us yesterday as a bevy of faves came in.

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 9 - #3 Another Miracle


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Saratoga - 8/16

 

Race  1

1.Mo Ready

2.Inside Info

3.Turbo Drive

#1 MO READY has burned some baccala in both starts to date, but improved appreciably from the first start to the second, and Todd has won with three of five 2YO mdspwt runners going short to long & brown to green ( $14, $10 & $13 ). #7 INSIDE INFO had his screws tightened up by Dream Weaver a week and a half back, as the 47 & 4 gate breeze signals this one's readiness for today's overture. Aforementioned 15% conditioner is 2-8 with those fitting all this criteria at 30-1 or lowah ( any track & Franco in the irons ). The winners came back $25 & $27, and went for a bunch more at auction than the breeding price. #8 TURBO DRIVE has gotten bettah with each passing start and has the eye cups added today.  OFF TURF: 2-4-5-9-6

  

Race  2

1.Olympic Village 

2.Family Biz

3.Dunph

#4 OLYMPIC VILLAGE hasn't been in action since turkey time, but was doing good things back then -- having won two in a row -- and is an obvious player if fully cranked up. #1 FAMILY BIZ was essentially eased when last seen back on the 27th of June, but runner completed the exacta in his lone try right here, and only two wins came beneath today's jock. #6 DUNPH has a bunch of back class & is up for grabs for the first time today. Fella won his lone start at this tricky distance. 

 

Race  3 

1.Shennan ( Ire ) 

2.Bail Out

3.Value Engineering

#6 SHENNAN (IRE) was an okay 3rd in the first off the layoff/first start in N.A. foray, and Casse is classy like Freddie Blassie with second off the break maiden special weight turf stayers who hit the board less than 43 days ago & are 16-1 or less today. He's 8-19 in that regards, with a positive return on investment. #4 BAIL OUT is beginning to give the impression of becoming that kind of maiden ( the nibbling kind ), but we'd be remiss in excluding, as Shug is a lively 14-47 with runners of this ilk who were 1-2-3 43 days ago or less & are 9-1 or beneath ( $2.07 ROI ). #1 VALUE ENGINEERING has been beset by layoff lines after each of his two ( decent ) starts, but given the Beyer improvement shown in the secondary outing.  OFF TURF: 7-1-3-4-8

 

Race  4

1.Wailin Josie

2.Tarallucci

3.Beans N Rice 

#7 WAILIN JOSIE may be a beautiful overlay in this spot. Brown gal posted an adjusted speed figure of 52.3 first time out, then followed that up with a 61.1 ( at a higher level ). Both of those were on fast tracks, and although the next two outings were floparoonies, keep in mind that they were on the slop & the sod -- two conditions that this one is not suited for. There was a nice breeze down on Long Island just six days ago, and as there are no world beaters in this ( the lowest level race on the grounds ), we'll swing away. #6 TARALLUCCI was kept in jail after the purchase & is dropped 15K below the claiming price today, & ( from a tiny survey ) Handal is 2 fer 3 with freshly purchased dirt stock off breaks of 51-57 days ( $9 & $8 ). #10 BEANS N RICE showed improved speed on the turf in the 1st try for Oscar, and is even a bit better bred for the brown stuff. 

 

Race  5 

1.Cove Blue

2.Mucho

3.Blue Belt

#3 COVE BLUE was a game and decently clear runner up beneath the twin spires on June 27th, and did such at the robust odds of 14-1. 14% Romans owns an 8:4-2-0-2 ledger with his dirt stock who crashed the fiesta 50 days ago & are 20-1 or undah, and just look at the payoffs -- $16, $42, $5 & $10 !! #5 MUCHO won his only start off the shelf & owns a win and a placing right here. Logical inclusion. #4 BLUE BELT has been a part of the superfecta in a whopping 11 straight outings, and looms to be a live one for a fresh & sharp new conditioner. 

 

Race  6

1.Discreet Image

2.Clockstriketwelve

3.Zabava

We're seeing this race as easy as 1-2-3. ( Not quite, but we're trying to be clever here, as there's not much to be jazzed about for this heat. ) #1 DISCREET IMAGE ( despite having won two of 19 ) has lost ground in the lane in all her starts but one, so Donk slaps on the eye cups this afternoon in order to shake things up a bit. Most timid of selections. #2 CLOCKSTRIKETWELVE has won her last two outings when available for purchase and picks up Castellano. #3 ZABAVA rounds out the top three ( which is a another way of saying that we're moving on to the 7th ).  OFF TURF: 2-5(MTO)-3-10-8

 

Race  7 

1.Aquaphobia

2.Zapperini

3.Lunaire

#3 AQUAPHOBIA is a consistent 11:3-3-4 at this trip, and rates the slightest of edges in another race that we're encountering difficulty in eliminating anyone with our first draft. #7 ZAPPERINI makes his 3rd start off the shelf today and re-adds blinkers. #2 LUNAIRE closed out the exacta in his lone start on the inner & has been a part of the super in both "3rd off the L/O" attempts. Gelding likes this dx. as well.  OFF TURF: 5-6-4-3-2

 

Race  8 

1.Behind the Couch

2.Singular Sensation

3.Peaches and Spice

#7 BEHIND THE COUCH has improved with each passing start, having never missed the board, and the 394 Tomlinson tells us that today's added ground shouldn't be much of an issue. Deserving chalk. #5 SINGULAR SENSATION can be forgiven the recent turf debacle, as the gal just ain't particularly well bred for the stuff. That being said, as this one is making just her second try over a glib surface, we'll toss in the hopper because of the Mineshaft over Smart Strike pedigree. #1 PEACHES AND SPICE as bad as any to finish 3rd in a race that is not deserving of an $80,000 purse.   NOTE: AS OF 12:11, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 1-5-8.

 

Race  9

1.River Hawk

2.Frosted Rose

3.Memorable

#4 RIVER HAWK may be a bit light from a speed figure perspective, but sometimes these babies can improve by leaps and bounds, and we like the grittiness shown in the Maryland maiden breaker on the first of the month. Tough race here, so tread lightly. #5 FROSTED ROSE must have appreciated the blinker addition when coming from way downtown to grab the sheepskin a half'a month ago, and while a bounce is always possible after a positive equipment/medication change, we'll toss in just in case he's turned the corner on his own. #1 MEMORABLE has burned a bit of baccala in the last duet, but 330 Tomlinson figure tor the verde is ( for this group ) fairly solid so we'll leave in the mix.  OFF TURF: 1-2-3-6-5  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 ANOTHER MIRACLE fills the bill, as Contessa is a woeful 1 for 45 with first time turfers going short ( those who have started ), and is 0-10 with those at $9.65-1 or less.

 

Race  10

1.Mr. Vincent

2.Will's Bay

3.Awesome Adversary

#4 MR. VINCENT is second off the shelf this afternoon and owns a few decent turf lines. Wouldn't be surprised to see this one on the front end in a race devoid of much legit early speed. #12 WILL'S BAY had a slightly troubled trip in the turf debut, but still closed a bit that day, then followed that up by displaying a bit of early zip in an off the turf jammie. Could spice things up a bit. #3 AWESOME ADVERSARY has been a sompletely different animal since early March ( going 7:M-5-2 compared to a 9:M-0-2 mark in all starts prior to that stretch ), but as I can't quite put my finger on an angle that would get this one over the hump, will leave beneath until he proves otherwise.  OFF TURF: 3-8-12-13(MTO)-14(MTO)

 


Saratoga           ( Current ):    34-253       ( $236.70 ) Beatable Favorites  6-17   ( 35.3% )      Favorites Win %:  92-253   ( 36.4% )( As of Friday morning ) 

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Belmont Spring     ( Final ):    90-447      ( $697.60 )  Beatable Favorites  6-33 ( 18.2% )      Favorites Win %:   172-447 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring   ( Final ):    32-110      ( $322.60 )  Beatable Favorites   1-4  ( 25.0% )      Favorites Win %:    39-110  ( 35.5% )

Aqueduct  Winter ( Final ):     73-374     ( $490.60 )   Beatable Favorites: 7-23 ( 30.4 % )     Favorites Win %:   150-374 ( 40.1% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):     5-32         ( $54.20 )     Beatable Favorites: 0-3    ( 0.0% )       Favorite's Win %:    9-32     ( 28.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-377   ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 128-377  ( 34.0% )  +/-: -26.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568        ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2258-11020 ($18,829.30) Beatable Favorites : 318-1148( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4062-11127 ( 36.5% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.7% takeout ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2343-11588 ($19648,50)  Beatable Favorites : 333-1216( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 4186-11599  ( 36.1% ) +/-: -15.2%  against a 16.4% takeout


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