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Thanks to all who stopped by yesterday to wish Bijou a happy birthday, and regale me with their own stories of "Fathers & Sons". 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Saratoga - 8/15

 

Race  1

1.Amazing Audrey

2.Princess Victoria

3.Frozen Hannah

#2 AMAZING AUDREY has been a part of the exacta in an amazing seven straight outings, and doesn't need to tote her track along, as she's accomplised such @ six different venues. 23% shotcaller has a "Gargan"tuan stat when it comes to his mid level turf stayers who crashed the party 33-67 days ago & are 7-1 or less, as he's 6 fer 14 in that regards, with an ROI of $2.69. #6 PRINCESS VICTORIA comes in today off a sharp win at the now defunct Suffolk Downs in the first start off a Rudy claim, and you may get slightly inflated odds here. #1 FROZEN HANNAH is another consistent sort who has done decently when starting from the inside three slots ( 7:2-1-2 ), but Leparoux has not done well here over the last few years, so we'll leave underneath.  OFF TURF: 2-1-6-3-4

 

Race  2

1.Talk You Out of It

2.Little Farina

3.Ain't None Lucky 

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #10 TALK YOU OUT OF IT has hit the board in all four starts to date ( one of them a stekes event ), and draws ideally today. Excellent show bet for all you into that sorta thing. #1 LITTLE FARINA hasn't shown a whole heck of a lot in the mornings for today's career starter, but the 396 Tommy leaves off the page, and while this is the first foal out of a dam who started just twice, the sire was 4:2-1-0 dashing over a glib surface, and the maternal grandsire was 5:2-2-0 doing the same. Needs an alert beginning. #6 AIN'T NONE LUCKY showed slight improvement from the 1st start to the second, is displaying a bullet breeze from Sunday, and gets a big time improvement in the jockey dept.. 

 

Race  3

1.Plainsman 

2.Lenstar

3.Tale of Silence

#2 PLAINSMAN hasn't been seen since turkey time, but owns a win & a 2nd from as many tries off the bench, and Grade three winner gave a game showing in the lone foray over this strip. Slight edge in a race where we were unable to eliminate anyone at first glance. #5 LENSTAR should be in front for as long as he can. #4 TALE OF SILENCE is 5:0-1-1-1 off a break, and despite seeming like a good "unders" candidate, will be slightly overbet because of the recent tango with McKinzie. 

 

Race  4 

1.Buy Land and See

2.Croi Mor

3.Mystic Lancealot

#1 BUY LAND AND SEE is showing a decent breeze on the lush Oklamoma turf from six days ago ( 6th best of 52 ), and 15% Klesaris has won with two of nine first time starters on the lawn ( 38-1 or less ) with the winners coming back a fat $20 & $34. Demand value. #5 CROI MOR has been doing okay in the A.M.'s for today's bow, and Pletcher charge went for nearly 4X the stud fee at auction a year back. This one is a half to a 3 for 13 turf sprinter who netted about 145 large. #4 MYSTIC LANCEALOT completes the "P.S. 154" ( my alma matta ) triple today, based on the fact that this uncoupled portion of the entry with 'Mor has fantastic pedigree for this trip and has been working lights out in the mornings.  OFF TURF: 9-8-2-4-5

 

Race  5

1.Swick

2.Cobble Hill

3.Sneakiness

#7 SWICK found the green quite disagreeable in the most recent, so Terranova ( 3 for 5  with dirt stock who missed the $ 51-57 days back @ 12-1 or lowah ) puts this one back on the brown stuff today. Switch to the meet's leading rider duly recognized. #11 COBBLE HILL hasn't faced the starter since New Year's Eve Eve, and despite the $370,000 purchaee price from last April, the Toddster gave this one the most unkind one of all. Bay runner closed out the triple in his lone dirt attempt, and barn is a snazzy and jazzy 11 fer 25 when giving their dirt dashers the biggest drop in the biz at 7-1 or lower ( 58-298 days ). #5 SNEAKINESS gets what old timers call an "around the world" treatment this afternoon: Loses blinkers, loses tes-tee-klees, drops in class & switches surfaces. Would merely need to find one of those agreeable to make an impression in this spot. 

 

Race  6 

1.Days of Glory

2.False Info 

3.Mo Zone

#2 DAYS OF GLORY showed little when making his North American debut two fortnights back, but colt had fared well in two turf tries just prior to that ( one of them a 2nd off the L/O attempt ), and is up for grabs for the first time here. Meeeeeeeekest of choices in a race that's hard to hug. #3 FALSE INFO has been gelded since the most recent and may perk up a bit. #6 MO ZONE has been in the back half of the field in both starts since coming off an elongated absence, but has okay bloodlines for the green stuff, and is another w/a "For Sale" sign attached to his rump.  OFF TURF: 11-12-3-8(MTO)-5

 

Race  7

1.Cirque

2.Andarta

3.Beaux Arts

#6 CIRQUE hasn't entered the starting gate since bleeding a half'a year ago, but in her only three starts over firm ground ( when finishing ), mare has two placings & a score, with increasing Beyers of 64, 67 & 75. Obviously there has been a lot of dirty water under the bridge since then, but Lasix is now back in the mix, and in a field bereft of any serious talent, who's to say she can't get the heart rate going for her backers on the front end with the bug assigned. #1 ANDARTA is one for two over firm going, but will positively need to send from this inside slot. #11 BEAUX ARTS has a nice, recent troika of figaros staring atcha, but yowsa, that 19:1-9-1 lifetime ledger is compelling us to spot this one beneath.  OFF TURF: 8(MTO)-3(MTO)-1-5-1A(MTO)

 

Race  8 

1.Baby Boss

2.Fair Regis

3.Carerra Cat

We have three solid DRF Formulator stats in play for the day's feature, so let's get to 'em directly. #3 BABY BOSS: 'Miah is 4 for 7 with ungraded dirt runners who tallied a score 42-50 days back, with mutuels of $9, $7, $20 & $8. There's a sub category of 2 fer 2 in Saratoga Springs as well. #5 FAIR REGIS: Servis ( 27% on the norm ) has won 11 of 28 with second off the claim dirt runners who crashed the fiesta < 43 days back, and has a positive return on investment in that regards. #6 CARERRA CAT: Morrisson ( who normally wins at just an 8% rate ) clicks at triple that amount with dirt horsies who were ITM 8-50 days back & are 7-1 or beneath. 

 

Race  9 

1.Sterling Beauty

2.Cape Cod Diva

3.Kerry's Ring

It's always nice to see a finale clearly, and we're digging our prospects here, as we're only tied onto this triad.  #3 STERLING BEAUTY put forth a solid showing in a NYB stakes right here at the end of July, and although our crack statistician Paul tells us that this barn has won with three of their last 98, honk if you like Donk with maiden special weight turf stayers who were 1-2-3 less than a month ago & are 5-1 or undah. He's a slick 6 for 9 with that type, and has a $4.47 ROI to boot. #2 CAPE COD DIVA showed stark improvement from the 1st start to the next, and is equally bred to go long as well. #8 KERRY'S RING should be no worse than third here.  OFF TURF: 8-11-12-15(MTO)-2 

 

Saratoga           ( Current ):    33-244       ( $232.80 ) Beatable Favorites  6-17   ( 35.3% )       Favorites Win %:  87-244   ( 35.7% )( As of Thurs. morning )

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Belmont Spring     ( Final ):    90-447      ( $697.60 )  Beatable Favorites  6-33 ( 18.2% )      Favorites Win %:   172-447 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring   ( Final ):    32-110      ( $322.60 )  Beatable Favorites   1-4  ( 25.0% )      Favorites Win %:    39-110  ( 35.5% )

Aqueduct  Winter ( Final ):     73-374     ( $490.60 )   Beatable Favorites: 7-23 ( 30.4 % )     Favorites Win %:   150-374 ( 40.1% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):     5-32         ( $54.20 )     Beatable Favorites: 0-3    ( 0.0% )       Favorite's Win %:    9-32     ( 28.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-377   ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 128-377  ( 34.0% )  +/-: -26.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568        ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2258-11020 ($18,829.30) Beatable Favorites : 318-1148( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4062-11127 ( 36.5% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.7% takeout ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2343-11588 ($19648,50)  Beatable Favorites : 333-1216( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 4186-11599  ( 36.1% ) +/-: -15.2%  against a 16.4% takeout


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