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Just a reminder that for today's Saratoga full card selections & analysis, merely go back one page. 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Graded Stakes - 9/2 - Happy Labor Day - Del Mar - Del Mar Futurity

 

 Race 9

1.Nucky

2.Defense Wins

3.Storm the Court

#7 NUCKY ( from an adjusted speed figure perspective ) has improved with each passing start, culminating with a daylight win over this oval a dozen days ago, so right off the bat, who knows where his ceiling is. This one sheds 32 ounces off a score, and 389 Tomlinson figure says that there may be some room for improvement. #3 DEFENSE WINS is still a maiden, but that doesn't mean a whole lot with this kind of race, and the runner up finish in the bow was somewhat flattered when teh winner came back to win a 200K stakes next out, improving the Beyer from a 69 to an 83. #1 STORM THE COURT showed true grit when winning the debut at 13-1, and that kind of mettle tells us that he can hack today's inside slot.  

 


Saratoga           ( Current ):    59-379       ( $421.20 )  Beatable Favorites  11-28 ( 39.3% )     Favorites Win %:  147-379   (38.8%)( As of Sunday morning )

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Belmont Spring     ( Final ):    90-447      ( $697.60 )  Beatable Favorites  6-33 ( 18.2% )      Favorites Win %:   172-447 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring   ( Final ):    32-110      ( $322.60 )  Beatable Favorites   1-4  ( 25.0% )      Favorites Win %:    39-110  ( 35.5% )

Aqueduct  Winter ( Final ):     73-374     ( $490.60 )   Beatable Favorites: 7-23 ( 30.4 % )     Favorites Win %:   150-374 ( 40.1% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):     5-39         ( $54.20 )     Beatable Favorites: 0-3    ( 0.0% )       Favorite's Win %:   12-39    ( 30.8% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-384  ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 131-384 (34.1%)  +/-: -26.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568        ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2258-11020 ($18,829.30) Beatable Favorites : 318-1148( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4062-11127 ( 36.5% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.7% takeout ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2343-11595 ($19648,50)  Beatable Favorites : 333-1216( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 4180-11606  ( 36.0% ) +/-: -15.2%  against a 16.4% takeout


  CoxLA2017