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Just a reminder that if you'd like today's full card Saratoga selections & analysis, merely go back one page. 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Graded Stakes - 8/17 - Del Mar - Pacific Classic

 

Race 9 - Del Mar Oaks 

1.Dogtag

2.Cambier Parc

3.Maxim Rate

We won't be going any deeper than our top two here. #7 DOGTAG has yet to miss a superfecta ( although the last was a three horse joke at the Spa ), and goes over firm ground for just the second time in today's 3rd off the L/O try. Tremendous breeding tells us that there's still some upside with this one. #1 CAMBIER PARC finished 3rd behind a next out winner when last seen at Belmont, and goes from the outside to the inside this afternoon, but will need to navigate a smooth journey amidst a bevy of California riders who will give no quarter. #2 MAXIM RATE may grind out a placing to spice things up underneath.  OFF TURF: 2-4-12-9-6

 

Race 10 - The Pacific Classic

1.Seeking the Soul

2.Pavel

3.War Story

#5 SEEKING THE SOUL got up in time to win the Stephen Foster down in Churchill two months back, and despite owning an 0-6 mark off the bench, is backed by a 3 for 3 trainer stat which has Dally at just that with his graded dirt routers off breaks of 51-75 days @ 6-1 or less. Slight advantage. #3 PAVEL is 3rd off the L/O for the first time today & gets some post relief from the Suburban. Legit playah despite being on a 1 for 13 run beneath Mario Gutierrez. #1 WAR STORY comes in today off a solid performance but is 0-2 here & 0-5 at the dist. Mixed signals.

 


Saratoga           ( Current ):    37-263       ( $258.90 ) Beatable Favorites  7-18   ( 38.9% )      Favorites Win %:  97-263   ( 36.9% )( As of Sat. morning )

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Belmont Spring       ( Final ):       90-447         ( $697.60 )     Beatable Favorites  6-33 ( 18.2% )      Favorites Win %:   172-447 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ):    32-110     ( $322.60 )  Beatable Favorites   1-4  ( 25.0% )      Favorites Win %:    39-110  ( 35.5% )

Aqueduct  Winter ( Final ):   73-374     ( $490.60 )  Beatable Favorites: 7-23 ( 30.4 % )     Favorites Win %:   150-374 ( 40.1% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):     5-32         ( $54.20 )  Beatable Favorites: 0-3    ( 0.0% )       Favorite's Win %:    9-32     ( 28.1% )


 

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

 

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-377   ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 128-377  ( 34.0% )  +/-: -26.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

 


 

Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568        ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

 

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2258-11020 ($18,829.30) Beatable Favorites : 318-1148( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4062-11127 ( 36.5% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.7% takeout ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2343-11588 ($19648,50)  Beatable Favorites : 333-1216( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 4186-11599  ( 36.1% ) +/-: -15.2%  against a 16.4% takeout


  CoxLA2017