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Just a reminder, that for today's Grade 1 selections & analysis of the three big races from Arlington, just go back one page. 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #9 Quiet Out East


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Saratoga - 8/10 - Fourstardave Day

 

Race  1

1.Tiz a Chance 

2.Wicked Freud

3.Cloontia

#4 TIZ A CHANCE showed little up in Beantown at the end of June, but the two outings prior to that were honest enough, and gelding is 2 fer 8 at the trip. Mild choice in the day's opener. #5 WICKED FREUD has put up a decent quartet of numeros this year, and is 6:1-1-3 in his last sextet going long on the lawn over firm ground. #7 CLOONTIA is 2 for 3 when racing on the ( firm ) inner and has done his finest work @ the trip. OFF TURF: 1(MTO)-6-3-1A(MTO)-8

 

Race  2

1.Yankee Division

2.Bassman Dave

3.Later Cat

These three and no more for all our rolling action...  #4 YANKEE DIVISION hasn't shown a whole heck of a lot in the mornings for today's overture, but gentleman John Hertler got this one to go 49 & 1 out of the gate back in late April ( top 33% breeze ), and there is a solid 411 Tommy on display. Sire and maternal grandsire had a fantastic short game ( better than mine ), and this one is a half to O Shea Can U See, who's amassed a 3 for 21 record on this circuit, banking 166 large. #6 BASSMAN DAVE should be no worse than 3rd here for all you show punters, but has lost ground in the lane in each & every start, so caveat emptor. #8 LATER CAT was a bit flat in the most recent after a solid debut and is eligible to rebound.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #9 QUIET OUT EAST does not make our first cut.

 

Race  3

1.My Sacred Place

2.Decorated Invader

3.Summer to Remember

#4 MY SACRED PLACE hasn't shown a whole lot down at the Shore, but sire was 1 for 6 on the gramma, and well...there's Dynaformer in the 3rd generation. #7 DECORATED INVADER closed stoutly to procure second place money when starting things out here during opening week, and pedigree tells us it was likely not an aberration. Having gone seven wide that day, it's probably for the best that he's a bit off the wood this afternoon. #1 SUMMER TO REMEMBER has been performing admirably in the mornings for today's career starter, and this one has a couple of siblings who have totaled a 3 fer 8 ledger in tirf routes. Legit player.  OFF TURF: 6-8-2-7-1

 

Race  4 

1.Straphanger

2.Running Violence 

3.Mandatory Payout

#4 STRAPHANGER has essentially been eased in his last duet, but gelding finds himself at his lowest level to date and brings in tow a few decent workouts for today's comebacker. From a tight sampling, Barker is 3 for 4 when dropping his dirt stock by 50% or more off of breaks of 51-105 days ( $6 x 2 & $4 ). Let's see if Luzzi can nurse this one's speed. #5 RUNNING VIOLENCE has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but is another who finds himself at an all time low in this spot, and has been gelded since last seen on Norway's national holiday. #6 MANDATORY PAYOUT closes out the top three. 

 

Race  5

1.Kittansett

2.Ajaaweed

3.Social Afleet

#2 KITTANSETT hasn't missed a work since starting things out in mid May, and a few of them are purdy snazzy. $110,000 bred animal went for 12.7X that amount at Keeneland last fall, and Brown ( from an itty bitty survey ) owns a 5:2-0-2 mark with those fitting ALL this exact criteria. Meek selection in another heat where we don't have a great read on things. #3 AJAAWEED has worked well both at Greentree AND the main track for the onset of his working life today, and brings in tow a whopping 409 Tommy as well. #4 SOCIAL AFLEET was positively sizzling in back to back breezes on the 4th & 12th of July, was dropped by a dam who won 1/3rd of his 33 dirt dashes ( netting 212 large ), and all sibs went 13 for 71 doing the same dance ( 205 big ones ). MUST be left in the hopper.

 

Race  6 

1.Gracetown  

2.Paper Clip

3.Catch a Thrill

#6 GRACETOWN tries the verde for the 1st time today, and is nicely bred for the stuff. Will need to step up her game substantially, but the price should make it worth our while. #9 PAPER CLIP has gone 64-84 in both turf starts over firm ground, ( hitting the board in each ), and owns some nice zip, which could be advantageous from today's outside post. #5 CATCH A THRILL has been a part of the ex. in all three dashes on the sod, and will be rolling late beneath Joel.  OFF TURF: 5-1-2-4-9

 

Race  7

1.Cardiac Kid 

2.Option Value

3.Stick Figure

#8 CARDIAC KID faded late in the game when beginning his working life right here on 7/13, and while we're normally averse to backing Leparoux ridden runners in dirt dashes, we are assuaged by a tidy but tight DRF Formulator stat in play here. Over the last 60 months, 14% Romans is 2 for 4 with ( let me catch my breath here ... ) locally based maiden special weight 2TS'ers going 2X to 1X & green to brown @ , 27-1. The winners came back $38 & $9, and can't you see yourself smacking your forehead if an A.P. runner wins at a big price? #2 OPTION VALUE has an excellent gate move on the docket for today's bow & brings a 390 Tommy along for the ride as well. #4 STICK FIGURE as good as any for 3rd. 

 

Race  8 

1.Green Light Go

2.Iberico

3.Tuggle

#3 GREEN LIGHT GO was dead game in going coast to coast like butter and toast first time outta the box, and the runner up from that day improved by about 10% in winning next time out. Positively scintillating move here 96 hours ago signals sharpness for today's Saratoga Special. #8 IBERICO was visually impressive when besting maiden foes down in Hallandale Beach, and we love the improvement shown in each passing start. #4 TUGGLE is another who bested a next out winner in the maiden breaker, but was a bit green in failing to change leads in the lane, so we'll leave beneath. 

 

Race  9 

1.Got Stormy

2.Raging  Bull

3.Made You Look

#6 GOT STORMY is such a game animal. Gal has won 2 of 4...5 of 9, and the lone try on the inner resulted in a scor3. 6 for 10 ledger is impossible to ignore, and we'll rate this one a tepid nod in a race named after one of our all time favorite equines, Fourstardave. We've also included an outstanding 27 minute compilation about the Saratoga great, right here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XeJYAjf6sWY .  #4 RAGING BULL comes in today off a career best performance, and accomplished such when adding blinkers for the first time. Slight jockey upgrade in play here, and this is a must include. #9 MADE YOU LOOK won his only start here over firm ground, and you're getting double digit odds with a big name outfit.  OFF TURF: 1-3-5-4-10

 

Race  10

1.Stonesintheroad

2.Puffery

3.Slimey

#8 STONESINTHEROAD started things out on a wonderful note not so long ago ( winning three straight ) and although she hasn't found her way into the winner's circle since then -- what's wrong with a placing & a showing? Humungous jockey change in store for this afternoon, ( Maragh to Luis Saez ), and five returnees from the last came back to ring up a 5:3-0-1-1 mark, with an average Beyer improvement of 5.3 pts.. #6 PUFFERY goes turf to dirt this afternoon, and judging by this one's pedigree, you can pretty much draw a line through the most recent. rebound within reach. #7 SLIMEY has won three of four, and that merits respect in this allotment. 

 

Race  11

1.Dove Shoot 

2.Wicked Grin ( AE )

3.Danzanta ( AE )

#10 DOVE SHOOT has an okay collection of speed figures, and today's addition of blinkers may perk things up a bit. #14 WICKED GRIN (AE) takes the biggest drop in the game today and is a major playah if able to draw in. #13 DANZANTE (AE) is another on the outside looking in, but loses the eye cups and lost by a touch more than two in his only start over firm ground.  OFF TURF: 5-1-3-6-7  NOTE: AS OF 12:18, DUE TO TWO KEY LATE SCRATCHES WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 10-3-5.

 

Saratoga           ( Current ):    28-213     ( $199.10 )     Beatable Favorites  6-15   ( 40.0% )     Favorites Win %:  75-213     ( 35.2% )(As of Sat. morning)

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Belmont Spring     ( Final ):    90-447      ( $697.60 )  Beatable Favorites  6-33 ( 18.2% )      Favorites Win %:   172-447 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring   ( Final ):    32-110      ( $322.60 )  Beatable Favorites   1-4  ( 25.0% )      Favorites Win %:    39-110  ( 35.5% )

Aqueduct  Winter ( Final ):     73-374     ( $490.60 )   Beatable Favorites: 7-23 ( 30.4 % )     Favorites Win %:   150-374 ( 40.1% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):     5-32         ( $54.20 )     Beatable Favorites: 0-3    ( 0.0% )       Favorite's Win %:    9-32     ( 28.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-377   ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 128-377  ( 34.0% )  +/-: -26.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568        ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2258-11020 ($18,829.30) Beatable Favorites : 318-1148( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4062-11127 ( 36.5% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.7% takeout ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2343-11588 ($19648,50)  Beatable Favorites : 333-1216( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 4186-11599  ( 36.1% ) +/-: -15.2%  against a 16.4% takeout


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