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Started out the week on a nice note with a profitable grand salami, a $351 triple box & a successful "Beatable Favorite". 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 7 - #6 H Man


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Saratoga - 8/8 

 

Race  1

1.Cuddle Kitten

2.Zena Rules

3.Stay Fond

( Note: For this race we will employ a rare betting strategy, but as of this writing on Saturday night -- that's right...Saturday night -- the odds haven't been posted. When the odds come up in a couple of days, we will get back to ya! )  UPDATE: If you were betting $100 on this race, I would bet $45 win #1, a $20 exacta 6-1, and a $35 STRAIGHT triple 1-4-6.  

 

Race  2

1.Shimmering Moon

2.Reata's Reward

3.My Roxy Girl

#1 SHIMMERING MOON is 1 for 3 @ the Spa, 3 fer 17 at the trip ( 1-8 at other distances ), 2 of 7 when starting from the innermost two slots ( 2-18 otherwise ), has never been entered this cheaply, and has been working well for the comebacker. Slight edge in a race with just two first draft eliminations. #3 REATA'S REWARD hasn't been seen since the May 31st wire job, but positively loves this dx., and pre-layoff bug returns. Don't worry, #2 MY ROXY GIRL, despite leaving Mitch's barn, you're still our favorite horse in training. $1,700 bred animal ( who has earned $359,714 ) puts her heart on the line each & every time, & is showing a bullet breeze for today's comebacker. 

 

Race  3

1.Jerome Avenue

2.Bad Boy

3.No Worries Mate

Yucky race here. #2 JEROME AVENUE has gone 49-74-75-80 in his four starts over firm ground, so right off the bat, who knows where his ceiling is in that regard. Jose has been aboard for the two best finishes, and grey gelding is in with a tag for the 1st time. #3 BAD BOY has the best collection of speed figures in the field, and finally burst through the maiden ranks last out. Logical. It appears the light bulb has come on with the #6 NO WORRIES MATE, as he enters today off his two ( albeit lowish ) best career figaros, and he may spice things up beneath.  OFF TURF: 1A-3-5-1-8

 

Race  4 

1.Potomac

2.Diodoro Entry

3.I'm an Ocala Dude

#2 POTOMAC is one for two when going from 2X to 1X, has gotten her Polaroid taken the last two times he's been up for sale, positively blitzed the competition in his only local dash, and digs the trip. Furthermore, 11% Carlito has an honest 3 fer 13 ledger when cutting back with his dirt stock who missed the board 6-50 days back below 10-1 odds ( $3, $19 & $18  ). Tough to use Maragh these days, but there ain't too many options in here. Both the #1 SHUT THE BOX & #1A CONQUEROR comprise decent halves of the Roberto Diodoro entry, and either can make an impression here. #6 I'M AN OCALA DUDE rounds things out. 

 

Race  5

1.Tiz the Law

2.Brilliant Brooks

3.Perpetrate

It ain't every day that my boys at Sackatoga plunk down six figures for a yearling, but we were there the night #3 TIZ THE LAW went for 110 large across the street a year ago, and it made for some great convo at the subsequent barbeque. Colt has not missed a work for Barclay, who although not known for having them go quickly in the mornings, has permitted this one to stretch his legs nicely on more than one occasion. This one matched up with a graded stakes placed barnmate in the 7/27 move, and colt is a half to Awestruck, who was 3 for 15 in dirt dashes, banking a quarter of a mil, and barn has won with 2 of 5 starters fitting ALL these exact parameters at 23-1 or lowah ( any jock ). The winners came back $9 & $24, and the more we type... #6 BRILLIANT BROOKS brings in tow a 380 Tommy for the debut, & 'Miah has identical trainer stats as Tagg within these parameters ( $10 & $17 ). #4 PERPETRATE has some decent morning moves on display. 

 

Race  6 

1.Tan and Light 

2.Prosperity

3.Restructure 

#6 TAN AND LIGHT improved by about 22% when trying the green stuff for the first time, and solid bloodlines tell us that it was likely not an aberration. 125K purchase went for twice that at the sales and should give a good accounting of herself once again in a race that we're having some difficulty in grasping. #2 PROSPERITY only beat three home in the bow, but lost by that many lengths in posting a decent speed figure. Rosario gets the call for the first time. #8 RESTRUCTURE is a four year old facing some younger competitors, and although beset by a triad of layoff lines, has closed the tri in 4 of 5 & is well bred for this trip.  OFF TURF: 2-6-8-3-9

 

Race  7

1.Morning Breez 

2.Binkster

3.Ready to Escape

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #3 MORNING BREEZ had blinks & bandages added for the recent flat performance, and ( at least ) the former is abandoned today, while a "For Sale" sticker is affixed to his rump for the first time. Irad sticking around is somewhat encouraging. #2 BINKSTER should be no worse than 3rd today for all you show punters, but this one has immolated a good deal of bread over his last triad, so we'll slide beneath. #5 READY TO ESCAPE matched a lifetime best fig in the most recent, but has lost ground in each of the last three, so Papa Englehart re-enlists the winless bug in an effort to get this one to the wire first before he runs out of petrol.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 H MAN doesn't make our first cut, so why would we accept favoritism?

 

Race  8 

1.Turn and Bern 

2.Out of Orbit

3.Cartwheel

Wide open feature here... #4 TURN AND BERN has been freshened up a bit since the May 26th allowance score at BEL, and although the lone two turn try left a bit to be desired, the bloodlines say that this one can hack it, and deserves another crack. Note that the lone start off a break resulted in a win. Meeeeekest of choices. #1 OUT OF ORBIT owns a placing & a showing in her lone "3rd start off a break" forays & also has a win and a third from as many starts when breaking from the wood. Best work has come beneath today's pilot. #3 CARTWHEEL romped at Elmont in the return & is 1 fer 2 in 'Togatown. 

 

Race  9 

1.Hierarchy 

2.The J Y

3.Allured

We won't be delving any further ( or is it farther ) than this troika.  #2 HIERARCHY is a steady if not unspectacular sort who has been a part of the super in all starts but one, and that includes a showing on the inner, which also came from an "inside-ish" slot. These types of runners always perplex us, as we always seem to bet them on their overall body of work -- rather than something that pops moff the page. 1-2-3 playah, fer sure. #6 THE J Y jumps into open waters this afternoon, but don't fret, my pet, as this one has hit the board in two of three such races. Six year old owns a win & a third place finish from as many "second off the L/O" tries, but is winless here, so we'll leave underneath. #9 ALLURED is a $600,000 purchase who comes in today having received the unkindest cut of all, and is also first time turf and first time route as well. We don't normally like when top flight trainers try to "manufacture" a win with changes like this, but I suppose we'd me remiss in excluding, no?  OFF TURF: 3-9-1(MTO)-6-2  NOTE: AS OF 11:11, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  10

1.Spinning Kitten 

2.Dakota's Dude

3.Rock the Causeway

#5 SPINNING KITTEN has improved with each call to the post and 23% Gargan is a sexy 5 for 9 with mid level turf stayers who crashed the fiesta 41-67 days back & are less than 7-1 ( $3.73 return on investment ). #10 DAKOTA'S DUDE got the job done in a nearly identical spot in mid June, and obviously makes sense once again. #7 ROCK THE CAUSEWAY is 2 for 2 when up for sale.  OFF TURF: 4-2(MTO)-5-7-8

  


Saratoga           ( Current ):    23-193     ( $167.20 )   Beatable Favorites  6-13   ( 46.2% )    Favorites Win %:   68-193   ( 35.2% )(As of Thursday morning)

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Belmont Spring     ( Final ):    90-447      ( $697.60 )  Beatable Favorites  6-33 ( 18.2% )     Favorites Win %:   172-447 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring   ( Final ):    32-110      ( $322.60 )  Beatable Favorites   1-4  ( 25.0% )      Favorites Win %:    39-110  ( 35.5% )

Aqueduct  Winter ( Final ):     73-374     ( $490.60 )   Beatable Favorites: 7-23 ( 30.4 % )     Favorites Win %:   150-374 ( 40.1% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):     5-32         ( $54.20 )     Beatable Favorites: 0-3    ( 0.0% )       Favorite's Win %:    9-32     ( 28.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-377   ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 128-377  ( 34.0% )  +/-: -26.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568        ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2258-11020 ($18,829.30) Beatable Favorites : 318-1148( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4062-11127 ( 36.5% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.7% takeout ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2343-11588 ($19648,50)  Beatable Favorites : 333-1216( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 4186-11599  ( 36.1% ) +/-: -15.2%  against a 16.4% takeout


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