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Continued our hot streak yesterday with another profitable grand slam & severeal rolling scores as well, as we've won with 8 of our last 16 selections. 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 3 - #6 Much Trouble  Race 10 - #8 Dancing Vega ( Ire )


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Saratoga - 8/9

 

Race  1

1.Smooth Tales  

2.El Dulce

3.Yes and Yes

#3 SMOOTH TALES goes two turns to one for the first time this afternoon, and the only other try on firm going yielded an adjusted speed figure of 66.1 ( and at a higher level as well ). Meet's second leading rider gets the call. #4 EL DULCE tries a bevy of changes for the first time today ( 3rd off a break, loses the eye cups, new jockey, and is available for purchase for the first time today ), and would only need to find one of those agreeable to make an impression here. Note that the maiden breaking effort came in his only start right here. #1 YES AND YES is a bit of an in and outer, but owns a 4:1-0-1 mark over firm ground.  OFF TURF: 6(MTO)-9-1-2-3  NOTE: AS OF 11:07, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 7-4-1.

 

Race  2

1.Bebeau

2.Zito entry

3.Freedom Prince

Not a very huggable race here, so tread lightly. #2 BEBEAU hasn't seen the scene since mid January, but drops into the maiden claiming ranks for the first time, and returns sans tes-tee-klees as well. There are a couple of decent works on display for today's comebacker, and in a deal where they may be staggering at the end, it's good to see a strong finisher like Luis in the irons. Both the #1 BURN AND TURN ( drop, freshening, FTG, and solid 2X breeding ) & #1A SNEADS ( decent two turn #'s ) comprise okay factions of the Nick Zito entry. #7 FREEDOM PRINCE as good as any for the show bread. 

 

Race  3

1.Red Right Hand

2.Halstaat

3.Willing to Speed

#5 RED RIGHT HAND was switched back to the gramma when taking the mandatory hike in class for the first start off the Morley claim, and put forth a solid showing when doing so -- earning a substantially highest figure than the only other turf foray. What made the most recent all the more impressive was in overcoming the amount of traffic encountered that day. Solid. #3 HALSTAAT has done decent work since being taken over by "The Fish" this year, and gets an appreciable jockey upgrade. #2 WILLING TO SPEED is a steady if not spectacular sort, but the 10:1-4-1 tells the tale, so we'll leave beneath.  OFF TURF: 6-5-8-4-9(MTO)  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 MUCH TROUBLE doesn't make our first draft, so why would we accept favoritism?

 

Race  4 

1.Portfolio Hedge

2.Shandian

3.Turbo Drive (AE)

#7 PORTFOLIO HEDGE begins his working life today, and apropos for sales week, this one went for 10X the stud fee across the street a year ago. Sire won his only turf dash, and after starting out their abbreviated partnership on an 0-14 note, Brown/Saez have gone 3 for 5 since. #6 SHANDIAN is slightly better bred for the green than the brown, and hey, those dirt #'s ain't half bad, ya know? Javy leans this way instead of the above. #11 TURBO DRIVE (AE) needs one to get out in order to face the starter, but should that be the case, brings in tow improving speed figures, the leading jock, and would be going from inside to outside.  OFF TURF: 1A-2-6-7-11(AE)  NOTE, AS OF 11:12, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, THE #'s 8 & 4 WILL BE OUR 2ND & 3RD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

 

Race  5

1.Lone Sailor

2.Cairo Cat

3.Flowers for Lisa

Three decent DRF Formulator stats on tap here, and as we just got back from the sales, let's get to 'em without further "to do"... #1 LONE SAILOR: Amoss ( from an itty bitty sampling ) is 3:2-1-0 when taking the blinks off his optional dirt routers returning off layoffs of 18-50 days, with the winners paying $6 & $5. Gelding is 1 fer 2 over this strip. #5 CAIRO CAT: McPeek ( 14% on the norm ) is a crisp 5-12 with runners of this ilk off breaks of 58 days or more @ 20-1 or less ( $14, $11, $6, $12 & $16 ). Numbers were heading in the right direction until the hibernation. #7 FLOWERS FOR LISA: Navarro has hit the board in about half of his 44 starts, and Navarro works miracles with his optional dirt stayers who crashed the fiesta less than 44 days ago at < 8-1 ( positive ROI ). 

 

Race  6 

1.Mom's Pass ( AE )

2.Indochine

3.Voting Agreement

#12 MOM'S PASS (AE) is on the outside looking in, but has hit the board in 2 of 3 lifetime, and The As-Man ( from an itsy bitsy survey ) is 2 fer 5 with those fitting all this exact criteria ( any jock ). The winners came back $7 & $14, and barn's go-to rider returns. #7 INDOCHINE is fantastically bred for this sorta spot ( 387 Tommy for the sod ), and there's a nice gate move showing from a dozen days back. Logical. #4 VOTING AGREEMENT ( uncoupled entrymate w/our secondary choice ) has a couple'a decent breezes for today's initial spin and we'll chunk in, given the connex.  OFF TURF: 1-2-13(MTO)-14(MTO)-3  NOTE: AS OF 11:14, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Shut the Box 

2.Scarf It Down

3.Shareholder Value

#9 SHUT THE BOX ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) is halved in price after the 3/30 purchase, and as Diodoro had already lost money with this one on the prior claim, anything short of a win with another barn switch this afternoon would result in some more red on the ledger for connections. #3 SCARF IT DOWN   is confidently raised more than 50% in claiming price here, despite having already served his sentence after the June 30th purchase, and 6YO has done his finest work @ this locale. #7 SHAREHOLDER VALUE has been snagged in six out of his last eight appearances, and new conditioner ( who's having a fine year ) gives this one the standard hike in class today as gelding shoots for the hat trick. Runner owns the all important win at this trip & over this strip. 

 

Race  8 

1.Dream Passage 

2.Malakeh ( GB )

3.Binti Al Nar ( Ger )

#5 DREAM PASSAGE is but a neck shy of aiming for the grand salami today, as this one's last troika of starts have been her best to date. We like her ability to send or rate, and in our eyes, the race goes through her. #4 MALAKEH (GB) takes a small drop in class this afternoon and is reunited with Javy, under whom she owns a win and a placing. #7 BINTI AL NAR (GER) rounds out the tri.  OFF TURF: 1(MTO)-4-2(MTO)-3(MTO)-6(MTO)

 

Race  9 

1.Killybegs Captain 

2.Ruler of the Nile

3.Pat On the Back 

Fantastic feature here. #2 KILLYBEGS CAPTAIN comes in today off a lifetime best fig, gets an appreciable jockey upgrade in Santana, and 16% bossman owns a 16:6-5-1 boxscore with ungraded dirt dashers who were 1-2-3 16-50 days ago & are 14-1 or beneath ( $4.76 R.O.I. ). Things haven't quite panned out for the #6 RULER OF THE NILE the way the original owners expected, as million dollar purchase has been claimed for as low as 8K back in May. That being said, colt has hit his stride in a big way this year, winning three consecutive races at increasing class levels. Ride the one with newfound confidence. #3 PAT ON THE BACK has won 4 of 6, is 3 of 5 at the dx., & has won two of six off a break; things to like. 

 

Race  10

1.Passing Out 

2.Foolish Living

3.Devious Charm

#5 PASSING OUT owns a win & a showing from as many starts over firm ground, and the most recent of which ( where he earned a higher number @ a higher level ) was accomplished despite a rocky onset. Slight edge here. #1 FOOLISH LIVING got up in time to procure the sheepskin about a month ago, and the solid pedigree tells us that the result was legit enough. Will need to navigate a perfect trip from today's inside slot. #4 DEVIOUS CHARM was a well beaten runner up behind a next out winnah when last seen down in Hallandale Beach, and drops in class while going two turns over firm going for the 1st time.  OFF TURF: 1-13(MTO)-15(MTO)-6-9  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #8 DANCING VEGA (IRE)  NOTE:AS OF 11:34, DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE MAIDEN THE #2 WORKED IN COMPANY WITH ON 7/27 WON FIRST TIME OUT IN A GALLOP YESTERDAY, WE ARE AMENDING OUR SELECTIONS TO 2-5-1-4. ( YES, A RARE RACE WHERE WE GIVE YOU FOUR HORSES. )

 


Saratoga           ( Current ):    27-203     ( $193.10 )   Beatable Favorites  6-14   ( 42.9% )    Favorites Win %:  71-203   ( 35.5% )(As of Friday morning) 

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Belmont Spring     ( Final ):    90-447      ( $697.60 )  Beatable Favorites  6-33 ( 18.2% )      Favorites Win %:   172-447 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring   ( Final ):    32-110      ( $322.60 )  Beatable Favorites   1-4  ( 25.0% )      Favorites Win %:    39-110  ( 35.5% )

Aqueduct  Winter ( Final ):     73-374     ( $490.60 )   Beatable Favorites: 7-23 ( 30.4 % )     Favorites Win %:   150-374 ( 40.1% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):     5-32         ( $54.20 )    Beatable Favorites: 0-3    ( 0.0% )        Favorite's Win %:    9-32     ( 28.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-377   ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 128-377  ( 34.0% )  +/-: -26.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568        ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2258-11020 ($18,829.30) Beatable Favorites : 318-1148( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4062-11127 ( 36.5% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.7% takeout ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2343-11588 ($19648,50)  Beatable Favorites : 333-1216( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 4186-11599  ( 36.1% ) +/-: -15.2%  against a 16.4% takeout


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