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Great seeing so many friends, readers & followers at the sales this week ! 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s):  Race 4 - #7 Connectivity  Race 5- #7 Lady Kaza  NOTE: AS OF 12:10, THERE IS NO BEATABLE FAVORITE IN RACE 4.


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Saratoga - 8/7 - Steeplechase Day

 

Race  1

1.Our Frosty

2.Market Alley

3.Bullet Star

#2 OUR FROSTY has been prepped for this by successive starts over the flat, and while a 59 length win ( go back to last October  ) may be out of the equation today, we like that Kate ( 13% on the norm ) is a tight 4:2-1-1 with ungraded jumpers off breaks of 7-67 days @ 40-1 or less ( $11 & $10 ). #6 MARKET ALLEY has been a part of the super both times he's returned off a break, and won his only start jumping over firm ground. #4 BULLET STAR has enough speed to land a share. 

 

Race  2

1.Legion Storm

2.Grammi Dance

3.Bears Mafia

#7 LEGION STORM is rapidly approaching that "professional maiden" territory, but as one of only three runners we like here -- what the hell else are we gonna do? The numbers are there -- obviously -- but with your flying sugar squirrel's life on the line, are you really tethered to this one's chances? Eeeeeeesh...... #9 GRAMMI DANCE hasn't been seen since National Amateur's Night, but former Violette charge has posted a few decent running lines way back when, and is an obvious threat if sound. #1 BEARS MAFIA goes turf to dirt & takes the biggest drop in the biz. 

 

Race  3

1.Wild William

2.Alphatest

3.Beach Front 

#4 WILD WILLIAM has done decent work since switching barns this year & has partaken in the superfecta in all three starts locally. Most feeble of selections in a blase' affair. #5 ALPHATEST posted a career best performance when having the wonder drug added in the most recent, and while a bounce is always possible, we'd be remiss in excluding. #2 BEACH FRONT hasn't been seen since three days before Christmas, but was going okay work back then, and is an obvious factor if fully cranked up.  OFF TURF: 11(MTO)-3-1-9-2

 

Race  4 

1.Bronco Sally

2.Decorated Ace

3.Abraxan

#8 BRONCO SALLY was a'stumblin' and a'bumblin' at the onset of the most recent, and the first thing that new conditioner Maker does is switch this one back to what is undoubtedly her preferred surface & add blinks. From an itty bitty sampling. MM is 2 fer 4 when going brown to green with new acquisitions at this trip ( < 38 days ), while being hiked 50% or more ( $20 & $15 ). #6 DECORATED ACE was all out to get up in time versus slightly weaker two dozen days back, and 11% Dini clicks at a 7-26 rate with turf stayers who won 48 days ago or less & are 16-1 or beneath ( $2.15 ROI ). #12 ABRAXAN is available for purchase for the first time and may perk up with today's surface transition. ( Then again...she may not. )  OFF TURF: 5-9-10(MTO)-4-7   BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 CONNECTIVITY  NOTE: AS OF 12:09, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION & THERE WILL BE NO BEATABLE FAVORITE.

 

Race  5

1.Thea's Theme

2.Funnypointofview

3.Critical Value

#2 THEA'S THEME has been putting in some good work in the mornings for today's overture, and $15,000 bred animal went for nearly 10X that amount across the street last year. Isn't it interesting that Jose eschews a logical contendress in our secondary selection, for a first foal out of an unraced dam? #1 FUNNYPOINTOFVIEW was a well beaten but well clear runner up first time out, and while this one makes all kinds of sense, we'll leave beneath, as Tyler hasn't looked good of late ( 1-34 ). #6 CRITICAL VALUE ( 2nd half of the uncoupled 'Miah entry ) has matched up in workout times with Thea for three morning moves & is a half to a 2 for 5 dirt sprinter who banked more than 100 large.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 LADY KAZA fills the bill as 26% Brown is 0-6 with those fitting all this exact criteria ( any jock ).

 

Race  6 

1.Archidust 

2.Uncle Benny

3.Dunph

#7 ARCHIDUST has improved over his last troika, and given the Beyer figure earned when taking a spin over the gramma for the first time, a hat trick is well within reach today. #2 UNCLE BENNY hasn't seen the scene since procuring 2nd place money in the Breeders' Cup, and while he'll likely be a deserving favorite today, will be overbet, as many BC returnees are. We like horses like the #3 DUNPH who don't need to tote their racetrack along with them, and this one will be loaded into his 8th different starting gate in as many outings. Winner from the last came back to get the job done once again, and this one is 1 for 2 when going from two turns to one.  OFF TURF: 2-10-1-3-5

 

Race  7

1.Hardcore Folklore 

2.Quick Entry

3.Ari's Naughty Luca

#6 HARDCORE FOLKLORE has been a completely different animal since the barn change ( 5:3-1-1 ) and comes in today having reeled off five consecutive career best #'s. 22% shotcaller is a sensational 18:11-1-2 with mid level dirt dashers who crashed the fiesta 1-25 days ago & are 15-1 or less today ( $3.18 ROI ). Should a victory not be in the cards for this one, then how about #8 QUICK ENTRY...for Marylou. #1 ARI'S NAUGHTY LUCA has blinkers added. 

 

Race  8 

1.El Asesino

2.Clench

3.Laser Loop

We have three solid DRF Formulator stats in play here, so let's get to 'em smartly. #8 EL ASESINO: Diodoro ( from a small sampling ) is 2 for 3 with locally based allowance dirt sprinters who were 1-2-3 < 50 days ago & are 13-1 or undah ( $13 & $8 ). #3 CLENCH: When it comes to his allowance dirt stock who were ITM 40-50 days back & are 8-1 or beneath, Servis performs "miracles" as he owns a 20:12-4-1 ledger to go with a fat $4.40 R.O.I.. #4 LASER LOOP: Contessa is 2 for 5 with first off the snag dirt stock who tallied a win less than 19 days back & are 13-1 or less ( $7 & $6 ). 

 

Race  9 

1.Mr. Buff

2.Sea Foam

3.Vincento

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #2 MR. BUFF has won 5 of 7, owns that exact same record at the trip, iwns a "declining" record that we love ( 29:9-6-4 ), and Kimmel is a sublime 6 of 10 w/ungraded dirt runners who scored 26-50 days ago & are 9-2 or beneath ( $4.05 return on investment ). There's a sub category of 2-2 with 'Toga routers, and Junior is in decent form these days. #3 SEA FOAM got his handsome face ohotographed in his lone 3rd off the layoff foray & is 2:1-1-0 at the Spaaaaaaaaahhhhhhh..... #1 VINCENTO is a win machine who shoots for the three bagger today. 

 

Race  10

1.Into Glamor ( AE )

2.Tiz Her Way

3.Bizness Beauty

#12 INTO GLAMOR (AE) needs one to get the sniffles in order to slide into the body of the race, but should that come to bear, brings in a decent overall body of work, a blinker addition, and a slight drop down the ladder. #7 TIZ HER WAY closed out the tri last time out and is obviously sorting things out, but lawdy, the trainer's stats leave a lot to be desired; mixed signals. #5 BIZNESS BEAUTY is slowly approaching professional maiden territory, but fared well in the lone turf try & ( I guess ) should be left in the hopper.  OFF TURF: 21-3-10-12(AE)  NOTE: AS OF 12:14, SHOULD ONE OF THESE THREE BE SCRATCHED ( AS ONLY 10 HORSES CAN RUN ) THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION. 

  


Saratoga           ( Current ):    19-183      ( $146.10 )   Beatable Favorites  6-12   ( 50.0% )      Favorites Win %:   63-183   ( 34.5% )(As of Weds. morning)

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Belmont Spring     ( Final ):    90-447      ( $697.60 )  Beatable Favorites  6-33 ( 18.2% )      Favorites Win %:   172-447 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring   ( Final ):    32-110      ( $322.60 )  Beatable Favorites   1-4  ( 25.0% )      Favorites Win %:    39-110  ( 35.5% )

Aqueduct  Winter ( Final ):     73-374     ( $490.60 )   Beatable Favorites: 7-23 ( 30.4 % )     Favorites Win %:   150-374 ( 40.1% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):     5-32         ( $54.20 )     Beatable Favorites: 0-3    ( 0.0% )       Favorite's Win %:    9-32     ( 28.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-377   ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 128-377  ( 34.0% )  +/-: -26.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568        ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2258-11020 ($18,829.30) Beatable Favorites : 318-1148( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4062-11127 ( 36.5% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.7% takeout ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2343-11588 ($19648,50)  Beatable Favorites : 333-1216( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 4186-11599  ( 36.1% ) +/-: -15.2%  against a 16.4% takeout


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