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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 6 - #6 Figure of Speech  Race 1 - #6 Kingdom's Queen ( as of 12:06 )  Race 9 - #3 Awestruck ( as of 12:38 )


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Saratoga - 7/31

 

Race  1

1.Seaside Dancer

2.Star Swept

3.Pure Praise

#8 SEASIDE DANCER all the way. #2 STAR SWEPT beat the boys down in Hallandale Beach to procure the diploma 4 1/2 months ago, and tho beset by layoff lines after each of her three calls to the post -- has increased in the Beyer department along the way. Not quite sure where her ceiling is yet. #9 PURE PRAISE as bad as any for the show dough.  OFF TURF: 4-2-5-7-6  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 JOY OF TREASURE doesn't make our first draft, so why would we accept favoritism?  NOTE: AS OF 12:06, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-7-1 WITH THE #6 A BEATABLE FAVORITE.

 

Race  2

1.Peggy Sue

2.Zandora

3.She's Not Bluffing

We'll go with the Brooklyn area code in the second half of the Early Daily Double. #7 PEGGY SUE is confidently hiked up in class after a 3rd place finish last time out, and Barker ( 14% when tying his shoes in the morning ) is 6 fer 18 when giving his mid level dirt stock that kind of class hike off breaks of less than three dozen days ( 18-1 or < ). The winners came back a robust $9 x 2, $13 x 2, $24 & $38, and filly is reunited with the pilot from her last win. #1 ZANDORA undergoes a few changes this afternoon ( turf to dirt, two turns to one, blinkers added, and drops to her lowest level yet ). Would only need to find one of those agreeable to make an impression here. #8 SHE'S NOT BLUFFING has posted back to back career best numbers and just may sit a perfect trip.  

 

Race  3

1.Mrs. Phelps

2.Saratoga Beauty ( AE )

3.Courageous Girl

#3 MRS. PHELPS hails from a barn that put one over in a similar spot last year with Kendrick in the irons to the tune of $21, Slight edge in a wide open affair. #11 SARATOGA BEAUTY (AE) needs one to declare in order to make it over to the races today, but should that come to bear, will be toting along a handful of successful morning moves as well as a hefty Tommy. #10 COURAGEOUS GIRL has rung up decent back to back gate moves for today's career starter and draws well.  NOTE: AS OF 12:14, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Niko's Dream

2.Subsidiary

3.Kid Is Frosty

We won't be delving any deeper then this troika for all our rolling action...  #7 NIKO'S DREAM is slightly better bred for routing than sprinting, which makes the recent 1X result all the more impressive. Filly has been a completely different animal in 2019, which is of no surprise, as Barclay is as patient as a safecracker, and note how much better the figure from the most recent was in comparison to the other turf dashes. Hope to see you in the winner's circle with one of the finest and most charitable man I know -- Jack Knowlton. #4 SUBSIDIARY is another one whose light bulb has been clicked on of late, and will likely be sending early to get tactical position on the #5 KID IS FROSTY, who should appreciate the added ground.  OFF TURF: 7-8(MTO)-5-6-3

 

Race  5

1.Kit Kat Katie

2.Girlntheyellowtaxi

3.Las Ramblas

#8 KIT KAT KATIE had an hellacious sojourn in the secondary start when nearly being put over the hedge, so obviously, you can draw a big fat crayola right through it. The debut was both fine and dandy, as gal closed out the exacta in front of a next out winner on a course labeled "good", and rates a huge shot today over firm ground. #4 GIRLNTHEYELLOWTAXI ( utilizing the maximum amount of characters permitted by the jockey club ) and #2 LAS RAMBLAS both comprise parts of an uncoupled Wesley Ward entry, who are well bred for this sorta deal.  OFF TURF: 4-2-6-16(MTO)-11(AE)  NOTE: AS OF 12:28, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 9-15(MTO)-8.  NOTE: AS OF 12:44, DUE TO A LATE, LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Hallajoori

2.Gloriously

3.Mochaccino 

#7 HALLAHOORI went for more than 5X the stud fee at auction, is a half to a 1 for 2 dirt sprinter as well as a 2-11 dirt dasher, and owns the all important bullet breeze out of the gate. Mild choice. #3 GLORIOUSLY brings a 389 Tomlinson figure into today's debut and obviously has decent breeding on the topside. #1 MOCHACCINO is another well bred runner, but we're not digging the inside so much, and will leave beneath.   BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 FIGURE OF SPEECH fills the bill, as Chad Brown is 0-9 in all pertinent categories.  NOTE: AS OF 12:32, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #11 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.English Soul 

2.Kreesie

3.Mascha ( Fr )

#1 ENGLISH SOUL is two for two when going from brown to green & completed the triple in her lone second off the layoff attempt. Slight edge here. #3 KREESIE sheds 48 ounces and has been within 2 1/2 lengths on the line in her last dozen starts. Seems like a solid "unders" candidate. #2 MASCHA (FR) hasn't been in action in nearly a year, but barn knows how to have 'em prepped for the comebackers, and as with most of these Euro shippers, Lasix is now part of the package.  OFF TURF: 4-1-6(MTO)-2-3

 

Race  8 

1.Hollywood Cat ( AE )

2.Citizen Matzo

3.Questeq

We spent about 50 minutes handicapping this race and came up with three solid DRF Formulator stats, so let's get right to 'em. #14 HOLLYWOOD CAT (AE): Servis is a sensational 9:6-2-1 with allowance turf sprinters who won 25-63 days ago & has a positive ROI in that regards. #1 CITIZEN MATZO: 14% Lerman is a jazzy 4 fer 11 with runners of this ilk returning in less than 38 days at odds of 12-1 or beneath ( $20, $8, $7 & $6 ). #7 QUESTEQ: Toscano doubles his normative 12% win rate with those fitting all this crtwria who were ITM 1-67 days back & are 12-1 or <.  NOTE: AS OF 12:34, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #11 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  9 

1.Saguaro Row 

2.Special Relativity

3.Talk Veuve to Me

#6 SAGUARO ROW tossed in a real clunker in the Princess Rooney, but had gone back to back in the duo before that, and prior to the GP deal, had steadily ascended the Beyer ladder since starting things out. Barn has a crisp 3-11 mark with ungraded dirt dashers off breaks of 14-50 days @ 8-1 or less, and note that this one has won both starts when breaking from the outermost two slots. #1 SPECIAL RELATIVITY is a perfect 3 for 3 at The Spa, and what the hell's wrong with that? #2 TALK VEUVE TO ME rounds out the tri.  NOTE: AS OF 12:36, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD CHOICE AND A BEATABLE FAVORITE.

 

Race  10

1.To a Friend

2.Morelikelythannot

3.Sister Gema

#8 TO A FRIEND gave up the ghost when last seen down at Belmont, so the hood is removed as she takes the biggest drop in the game today. The turf debut ( on firm ground ) yielded an adjusted speed figure of 79.1, which would positively clobber this allotment, IF she could get back to that numero. #4 MORELIKELYTHANNOT is another one leaving the blinks on the backside this afternoon, as well as taking the drop, and is an obvious player, despite her in and out ways. #5 SISTER GEMA has been a part of the super over her last quartet, and we like this one's ability to send or rate.  OFF TURF: 1-2-10-8-7 

 


Saratoga           ( Current ):    15-131      ( $110,20 )  Beatable Favorites  2-4   (  50.0% )      Favorites Win %:    42-131  ( 32.8% )(As of Weds. morning) 

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Belmont Spring     ( Final ):    90-447      ( $697.60 )  Beatable Favorites  6-33 ( 18.2% )      Favorites Win %:   172-447 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring   ( Final ):    32-110      ( $322.60 )  Beatable Favorites   1-4  ( 25.0% )      Favorites Win %:    39-110  ( 35.5% )

Aqueduct  Winter ( Final ):     73-374     ( $490.60 )   Beatable Favorites: 7-23 ( 30.4 % )     Favorites Win %:   150-374 ( 40.1% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):     5-32         ( $54.20 )     Beatable Favorites: 0-3    ( 0.0% )       Favorite's Win %:    9-32     ( 28.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-377   ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 128-377  ( 34.0% )  +/-: -26.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568        ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2258-11020 ($18,829.30) Beatable Favorites : 318-1148( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4062-11127 ( 36.5% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.7% takeout ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2343-11588 ($19648,50)  Beatable Favorites : 333-1216( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 4186-11599  ( 36.1% ) +/-: -15.2%  against a 16.4% takeout


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