KevinCoxItem

 

Getting into "snakebit" territory a bit, with four placings yesterday -- ALL of whom had the lead in mid stretch -- with one of them being DQ'd !  NURSE !!

On the bright side, at least we don't have to change our stats ! 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Saratoga - 7/27 - Jim Dandy Day

 

Race  1

1.Binary

2.Azzedine ( Fr )

3.I'm Looking Up

#4 BINARY hasn't displayed much in either grass outing to date, but we always give a runner an opportunity to have two go's under a particular set of circumstances, and not only has this one never sprinted on the sod, but he's decently bred for it while taking the biggest drop in the biz. #2 AZZEDINE (FR) split the field when running sans Lasix for the 1st time & has some decent turf running lines on the gramma. #11 I'M LOOKING UP posted a decent figaro when losing by less then three in the initial turf attempt, and the bloodlines tell us that the result was likely legitimate. Should be able to it a decent stalking trip today and an improvement is well within reach.  OFF TURF: 4-5-6-7-11

 

Race  2

1.Rapido Gatta 

2.Bossy Bride

3.Quasar

#1 RAPIDO GATTA has completed the tri in both starts to date, but there has been a layoff after each, so right off the bat, take a peek in the paddock. The numbers for each came back solid enough, and 'Miah is a crisp 7 for 15 with dirt sprinters returning in 51 days at 6-1 or less ( positive ROI ). Return of the pre-layoff pilot always adds to the allure. #5 BOSSY BRIDE comes in today off a career best performance and gets an upgrade in the jockey department for today's 3rd off the layoff attempt; logical contender. #7 QUASAR undergoes a few changes today: Turf to dirt, addition of blinkers, first time over this surface, and a new pilot who had two winners on Wednesday. Wouldn't be surprised to see a solid performance today.

 

Race  3

1.Shekky Shabazz

2.Sir Ballantine

3.Soul P Say

#7 SHEKKY SHABAZZ has done some fine work on the poly, and y'all know that we feel it translates to the turf just fine. Gelding finished 3rd in the lone "3rd off the L/O" spin, and Rice keeps it in the family by slating Jose to ride. Four year old entered at his lowest level to date as well.  #10 SIR BALLANTINE takes the obligatory hike in class today for the first start off the purchase, and longshot is 4:1-1-2 in 2nd off the L/O attempts. Was thinking about sliding this one upstairs, but Dylan on a bit of a slump these days, so will leave beneath. #3 SOUL P SAY is another who has fared well off of this kind of L/O scenario ( 1-2 ) and could be dangerous if able to scoot away early on.  OFF TURF: 5-6-9-3-13(MTO)

 

Race  4 

1.Soviet

2.Kowalski

3.Always Misbehaving 

#1A SOVIET has a couple of nice morning moves for today's overture, and T.P. wipes 'em clean with those fitting ALL this exact criteria at 6-1 or less, as he's a whopping 14-32 in that department  ( 44% ) with a positive ROI as well. #5 KOWALSKI was a bit tardy to the party in the Churchill bow, but still managed to get 3rd that afternoon, and gets a stronger finisher in the irons today. #8 ALWAYS MISBEHAVING has a bullet in the holster for today's debut, and gets a good "send" rider to start things out. 

 

Race  5

1.Westerland ( GB )

2.C C Rider

3.Prioritize

#8 WESTERLAND (GB) finished third in the Manila stakes when coming off the bench for the one and only time, and has been gelded since last in action. Could surprise. #1 C C RIDER put forth a sold performance in the lone try off an absence and is 3:2-0-1 when starting from the innermost two slots ( 5:0-2-0 otherwise ). Overall turf form is good and 12-1 seems to be some fair value for this one. #5 PRIORITIZE won his only start on the inner here last year and may jazz things up a bit.  OFF TURF: 1-2-3(MTO)-4-6(MTO)

 

Race  6 

1.Ella's Song

2.New Girl in Town

3.Mary's Girl

Without a shadow of a doubt, the most competitive race we've seen so far this meet ( which took us 53 minutes to analyze and write ). On our first draft, we were only able to eliminate one of the 13 signed on, and of the remaining dozen, several had solid DRF Formulator stats, so let's get to a few. #13 ELLA'S SONG: Dally ( 12% day to day ) is a sublime 13:9-3-0 with allowance dirt dashers who scored 20-50 days ago & are 19-1 or less today, and there's a whopping $7.03 R.O.I, in that area. Win machine draws ideally as this one tries to get one for the thumb here. #11 NEW GIRL IN TOWN is another Finger Lakes shipper who has that perfect "declining" record which we've grown to love ( 13:6-3-2 ), and this one got her photo taken in her lone "2nd off the L/O" try. #2 MARY'S GIRL ( one of our favorite horses/stories on the circuit, right after My Roxy Girl ) has really figured things out of late, and Rick owns a crisp 5-16 ledger with runners at this level who hit the board on the dirt less than three fortnights ago & are 32-1 or lowah today, with the winners coming back a robust $6 x 2 $10, $15 & $40; there's a sub category of 1-2 right here in that study. 

 

Race  7

1.Proven Strategies

2.Economic Policy

3.Crossing the Moon

#4 PROVEN STRATEGIES showed a bit of early hoof nord des lignes first time out, but faded late in the game on the poly that day, and switches over to the verde in this spot. Wonder drug is now part of the package, and we've always had a fondness for fading sprinters stretching out for the 1st time. #5 ECONOMIC POLICY has the obvious top flight connections and is nicely bred for this deal. #10 CROSSING THE MOON rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 3-9-8-5-11(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 12:04, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Dark N Cloudy 

2.Morning Breez

3.Fortune's Fool

#8 DARK N CLOUDY ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) has hit the board in 5 of 6 ( discounting the most recent three horse affair ) and has only thrown in one true clunker over a fast surface. Blinks go on today for Schettino, and Gaffalione guided this one to a troubled showing when debuting right here last year. #6 MORNING BREEZ has hit the board in 9 of 12 at the trip & is 1 fer 2 with Irad in the stirrups. #5 FORTUNE'S FOOL has improved with each passing stat & is tough to fault.  NOTE: AS OF 12:09, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 7-5-6.

 

Race  9 

1.Mitole

2.Firenze Fire

3.Strike Power

A.G. Vanderbilt on tap here, and for some history on his short but interesting life ( he perished on the Lusitania ), feel free to go to this website https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_Gwynne_Vanderbilt . The last time #1 MITOLE ran, we said that we envisioned this one possibly doing some great things going two turns down the road. He just has that kind of "look" to him, and glancing at the PP's a bit, I swear I've seen this movie before. Anyway, The As-Man has him in sensational form of course, ( as seven straight win is difficult to argue with ), and while this is your deserving favorite, we would LOVE to see them take a swing in the Woodward, as a spot in the BC Mile is already locked up, and the sire was 2 fer 2 going 2X on the dirt. #4 FIRENZE FIRE merely split the field in the Met Mile, but is three for his last three after a loss ( no layoff lines in the middle ). #2 STRIKE POWER may last for a share. 

 

Race  10

1.Highland Sky 

2.Arklow

3.Channel Maker

#6 HIGHLAND SKY has a propensity for outrunning his odds quite often, and is 4:1-0-1-1 in second off the layoff forays, with the losses being by a total of less than three lengths. Recent bullet breeze on the Oklahoma lawn a good sign for one who likes to come from behind, and recognize the fact that this one  is 1 for 2 over a local firm inner course. #1 ARKLOW has broken some hearts in four of the last five, but must be left in because of the overall 50% exacta rate. #5 CHANNEL MAKER owns a win & a placing from as many local outings.  OFF TURF: 2-4-1-12-3

 

Race  11

1.Laughing Fox

2.War of Will

3.Tacitus

#1 LAUGHING FOX rallied strongly to close out the Super Hi 5 in the Preakness, posting an adjusted Beyer of 107.3. The figure earned in the start just prior to that was a 104.3, so perhaps this one is really coming into his own. Looking at an Asmussen/Santana/1-2 punch in the graded dirt events. #6 WAR OF WILL showed zilch in Elmont, but is an obvious factor if able to get back to the Maryland jammie. #5 TACITUS has been a different animal since stretching out this year and is but a length short of a 3 for 3 ledger over a glib surface in '19. 

 

Race  12

1.Saratoga Colonel

2.Hijacker 

3.Letterman

#6 SARATOGA COLONEL was claim protected in the first start off an elongated absence, and in the past, this one has lost by just a neck in the lone "2nd off the L/O turf route". Gelding is reunited w/Manny Man today and gets a tepid nod. #7 HIJACKER has yet to miss a superfecta on the lawn, and may get overlooked a tad due to the poor recent dirt try. #8 LETTERMAN is third off the bench today and has never been entered this cheaply.  OFF TURF: 16(MTO)-2-6-9-12  NOTE: AS OF 4:08 A.M. THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.  NOTE: AS OF 12:13 P.M. SATURDAY, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 10-6-4.

 

 

Saratoga           ( Current ):    13-107        ( $90,60 )    Beatable Favorites  2-4   (  50.0% )       Favorites Win %:    36-107    ( 32.0% )(As of Sat. morning)

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Belmont Spring     ( Final ):    90-447      ( $697.60 )  Beatable Favorites  6-33 ( 18.2% )      Favorites Win %:   172-447 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring   ( Final ):    32-110      ( $322.60 )  Beatable Favorites   1-4  ( 25.0% )      Favorites Win %:    39-110  ( 35.5% )

Aqueduct  Winter ( Final ):     73-374     ( $490.60 )   Beatable Favorites: 7-23 ( 30.4 % )     Favorites Win %:   150-374 ( 40.1% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):     5-32         ( $54.20 )     Beatable Favorites: 0-3    ( 0.0% )       Favorite's Win %:    9-32     ( 28.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-377   ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 128-377  ( 34.0% )  +/-: -26.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568        ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2258-11020 ($18,829.30) Beatable Favorites : 318-1148( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4062-11127 ( 36.5% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.7% takeout ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2343-11588 ($19648,50)  Beatable Favorites : 333-1216( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 4186-11599  ( 36.1% ) +/-: -15.2%  against a 16.4% takeout


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