KevinCoxItem

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Saratoga - 7/14

 

Race  1

1.Sign of the Times

2.Sweet Melania

3.Morning Gold

#8 SIGN OF THE TIMES showed little in the career starter, so Ward elects to remove the hood today, and gets a much better rider in the irons as well. Chance to make amends in a nondescript field. #9 SWEET MELANIA has burned a little bread in finishing third both times out, and although the turf bloodlines are still unproven, there was some improvement ( from a speed figure aspect ) from the first start to the next, and we'd be remiss in excluding an animal as well meant as this. #10 MORNING GOLD has a couple'a nice morning moves for today's overture...."Overture, curtains, lights, this is it, we've hit the heights..." , and may come along late for a share beneath a rider who struggled here last year.  OFF TURF: 2(MTO)-5-1(MTO)-7-3

 

Race  2

1.Belleville Spring

2.Keeping the Peace

3.Straphanger

#5 BELLEVILLE SPRING hasn't been seen since my birthday ( hint, hint ), but returns at the price claimed from that afternoon, and Weaver is a dreamy 5 for 8 with runners of this ilk off breaks of 58-338 days ( $3 x 2, $4 & $10 ). #3 KEEPING THE PEACE got the diploma in wire to wire fashion down at the shore on 5/27, and obviously figures versus this type off of the figure earned. #4 STRAPHANGER has lost by a total of 110 lengths in his last duet, but is one for two on a fast strip and we'll toss him in to spice things up.   NOTE: AS OF 11:36, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'s 2 & 1 WILL BE OUR SECOND & THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY. 

 

Race  3

1.Wild William

2.Risp

3.Bears Mafia

#3 WILD WILLIAM has partaken in the super both times he set hooves on this oval, earning decent adjusted numeros in the process, and is second off the break today after showing some decent speed in the comebacker. #8 RISP has immolated baccala in both starts to date, but is another making his 2nd start off of an elongated absence, and it's encouraging to see Rosario ( with a nice day here on Friday ) sticking around. #7 BEARS MAFIA has a nice overall body of work, but the lone turf try left something to be desired. Mixed signals in a race that's hard to embrace.  OFF TURF: 5-1-6(MTO)-8-10(MTO)

 

Race  4 

1.Titan's Will

2.Kobe

3.Macho Boy

#1 TITAN'S WILL hasn't shown much in the mornings, but the dam was a respectable 1 for 6 in dirt sprints, and this one is a half to a 2-6 dirt dasher. From a small survey, 'Miah is 2 for 3 with those fitting ALL this exact criteria at 16-1 or less ( any pilot ) with the winners coming back $10 & $13. #6 KOBE & #3 MACHO BOY comprise decent halves of the uncoupled Contessa entry, with the former being a half to a 3 for 4 sand sprinter ( 60K ) and the latter having a maturity advantage over the entire allotment, and bringing in a fat Tommy of 404. 

 

Race  5

1.Positive Skew

2.Decorated Ace

3.Zandora

#8 POSITIVE SKEW makes her third start off a "true" layoff this afternoon, and has the hood added while going up for sale for the 1st time. On that note, Brown is 7:5-1-1 when doing such to his 3rd off the shelf turfers ( $3.85 return on investment ). #11 DECORATED ACE gets some much needed class relief this afternoon, and although she's only beaten home four in her last troika, the last start outside of stakes company resulted in a win; 2 for 4 mark at the trip duly recognized. #7 ZANDORA got the job done the only time she was available for purchase, and the lone route over firm ground was honest enough ( a 4th place finish at a higher level going off at 13-1 ).  OFF TURF: 8-2(MTO)-5-4(MTO)-11

 

Race  6 

1.Flush

2.Fetching

3.Miss Jen

#5 FLUSH was a lively runner up when going long on the lawn for the first time, and did such after a 2 1/2 month layoff. Obviously the speed is there, and this one may move forward with the comebacker under her girthstrap, and ( heavens to Betsy ) some firm ground. #4 FETCHING improved in the Beyer dept. when facing winners for the first time, and did such while stretching out for the first time. Looks solid. #6 MISS JEN could be rolling late with some pace to cut into.  OFF TURF: 9-4-3-12(MTO)-2

 

Race  7

1.T Loves a Fight

2.Sudden Surprise

3.Binkster

#5 T LOVES A FIGHT has done little wrong since being snagged for a dime on May 12th -- finishing 4th when being quadrupled in price in the first start for a conditioner who's new to this deal, then rattling off back to back jacks. Gelding has a win over the course and is logical once again. #1 SUDDEN SURPRISE is a win machine ( 12-33 lifetime, including 5 fer 9 @ the trip and 4 for 6 in Togatown ) and can't be dismissed. #8 BINKSTER has won three of six and just finished 4th in a race where the 1-2 finishers finished 3rd & 1st in their followup outings ( same heat ). There's a negligible one point improvement in the Beyer department for that duet, and this one has that ( or so we feel ) advantageous outside draw for the first time. 

 

Race  8 

1.Xanthique

2.Catch a Bid

3.Belle Laura

#6 XANTHIQUE is 5:2-2-0-1 lifetime ( 2 for 2 on the lawn/with Junior & Morley ), and barn is a near perfect 6:5-10- with optional turf stayers who scored less than 44 days ago & are 13-1 or undah ( $22, $7, $3, $4 & $5 ). "Rider her til she bucks you or don't ride at all." -- Roy McAvoy. #8 CATCH A BID was visually impressive when snagging the sheepskin at first asking, and while the pedigree doesn't show enough in regards to that win possibly being a bit of an aberration, we'd be remiss in excluding. #4 BELLE LAURA has some back class.  OFF TURF: 1-11-4-3-8

 

Race  9 

1.A Bit of Both

2.Break Even

3.Lyrical Lady

There's a special place in hell for whoever carded the first turf sprint.  #5 A BIT OF BOTH has been beaten by by just one other in her six race career, and has essentially led at every point of call. Even though the turf breeding leaves a bit to be desired, she took to the verde just fine last time out, and that's not entirely surprising, as sometimes one's speed can make up for lack of green in the bloodlines. "Miracle Man" Servis is a fat 7 for 15 w/ungraded turf sprinters who won < 58 days ago ( $3.40 R.O.I. ). We like how she drew outside her main competition, #4 BREAK EVEN. That runner is in fact perfect, and it's her race to lose. #2 LYRICAL LADY is quite the "in and outer", but that can likely be attributed to disdain for the goo. Gal is bred nicely for this sorta deal and would be no surprise.  OFF TURF: 4-5-8-6-9  NOTE: AS OF 11:39, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  10

1.Mine the Coin

2.Zorbed

3.Ninja Dust

We finish the week with three tidy DRF Formulator stats, and as it's late once again, let's get to 'em in a no frills manner. #8 MINE THE COIN: Weaver has won all five times he's given his dirt sprinters the biggest drop in the biz off absences of 58-258 days ( 8-1 or < ) and owns a $4.85 ROI in that regards. #12 ZORBED: 19% Rudy Rod is 3-7 with locally based maiden claiming sprinters on the sand who missed the $ 14-50 days in the rear. #5 NINJA DUST: Carlito is 2 for 4 with runners of this ilk right here off L/O's of less than three dozen days. 

 


Saratoga           ( Current ):      5-31        ( $37.20 )    Beatable Favorites    1-3   (  33.3% )     Favorites Win %:      9-31   ( 29.1% )(As of Sunday morning) 

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Belmont Spring     ( Final ):    90-447      ( $697.60 )  Beatable Favorites  6-33 ( 18.2% )      Favorites Win %:   172-447 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring   ( Final ):    32-110      ( $322.60 )  Beatable Favorites   1-4  ( 25.0% )      Favorites Win %:    39-110  ( 35.5% )

Aqueduct  Winter ( Final ):     73-374     ( $490.60 )   Beatable Favorites: 7-23 ( 30.4 % )     Favorites Win %:   150-374 ( 40.1% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):     5-32         ( $54.20 )     Beatable Favorites: 0-3    ( 0.0% )       Favorite's Win %:    9-32     ( 28.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-377   ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 128-377  ( 34.0% )  +/-: -26.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568        ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2258-11020 ($18,829.30) Beatable Favorites : 318-1148( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4062-11127 ( 36.5% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.7% takeout ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2343-11588 ($19648,50)  Beatable Favorites : 333-1216( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 4186-11599  ( 36.1% ) +/-: -15.2%  against a 16.4% takeout


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