KevinCoxItem

Just a couple of chalky winners on a washout of a day yesterday, and as today is the same, it's worth noting that our amended selections revert back to the original choices should the track miraculously come up fast. 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #4 Playthatfunnymusic


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Belmont Park - 6/20

 

Race  1

1.Blame the Thief

2.Toohottoevenspeak

3.Analyze the Odds

These three and no more for all our rolling action in the day's opener. #1 BLAME THE THIEF is 3 for 11 going one turn on the dirt ( 1-14 @ other trips ), won his only start when breaking from the wood, and Hills is alive with the sound of wins with mid level dirt dashers who missed the baccala < 50 days ago & are 11-1 or beneath this afternoon. 11% shotcaller is a whopping 7-20 in that regards with mutuels of $5, $7, $16, $17, $24 & $4 x 2. #3 TOOHOTTOEVENSPEAK is a nibbler by nature ( 51:4-10-12 ) but has a better rate at Elmont and is confidently doubled up in price today. #5 ANALYZE THE ODDS was a well beaten but well clear runner up versus tougher last out, and is obviously live here.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 PLAYTHATFUNNYMUSIC doesn't make our first draft, so why would we take 7/5 ? NOTE: AS OF 12:46, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING SLOPPY, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 5-3-1.

 

Race  2

1.Riot Worthy

2.Malarkey

3.Exceed the Goal

Another affair where we won't be going any deeper than this troika. #4 RIOT WORTHY returned after more than a 15 month sabbatical to close out the tri in this race three fortnights ago, and having been kept in jail by Noda ( who won his first race the other day ) returns back in exactly the same spot. Big chance with the last under her girthstrap. #3 MALARKEY has steadily improved over her last quintet and finds herself @ her lowest level thus far. #1 EXCEED THE GOAL finished just in front of the above in the aforementioned heat, and also found herself with a new address that evening. Obvious factor.  NOTE: AS OF 1:15, DUE TO TWO SCRATCHES AND THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-2-3.

 

Race  3

1.Azrael

2.Meet Me in L A

3.Sagaponack

Yes, one more truncated affair where we're only jamming on this triad. #2 AZRAEL hasn't been seen since Labor Day weekend, but split the field at 11-1 that afternoon, but the runner up went 4:2-2-0 in his next quartet ( average Beyer of 74.7, including a shocking win in the Holy Bull ), the winner ( this one's barnmate ) came back to win the Champagne ( 95 figaro ), and the show horse has won 3 of 4 since ( avg. # of 87.5, with two stakes wins ). String of moderate breezes was punctuated by a best of 38 bullet at Oklahoma, and this one went for 35X the stud fee at auction, so we'll slide up top. #5 MEET ME IN L A should be no worse than 3rd here ( for all you show punters ) and owns the best race fig while drawing ideally. #1 SAGAPONACK ( an 83.2 mile direct eastward drive from here ) is the uncoupled entrymate of our top selection, and either one was likely hustled to make this race go, but went for a million clams & owns a few nice works; must include.  NOTE: AS OF 1:23, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, THE #3 WILL NOW BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Not About the Nail

2.Behind the Couch

3.Party in the Sand

Yet uno mas lightly filled race where we only dig this threesome. #4 NOT ABOUT THE NAIL is wheeled right back in 120 hours, and why not, as this one put up a career best numero on Saturday. That race went off at about the same time that entries were drawn for this event, so it's sorta hard to know whether or not Barker liked what he saw before calling the racing office, but there's a jockey upgrade in play for a runner who likes this trip. #5 BEHIND THE COUCH has yet to miss the board in improving with every start, and drops in class for today's 2nd off the L/O attempt. #2 PARTY IN THE SAND finished second in an identical placement 25 days ago & factors once again. NOTE: AS OF 1:28, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 6-4-5.

 

Race  5

1.Kit Kat Katie

2.Fancy Persuasion

3.Miss Marissa

#3 KIT KAT KATIE came along gamely to secure second place money in the May 2nd overture over this oval, and the pedigree tells us that the result was likely not an aberration. There has been an excellent bullet breeze since then just a week ago ( over the "slowish" training track ), and 'Miah is 5 for 8 with second time starters on the sod at 9-2 or less who were ITM first out ) $11, $9 x 2, $4 & $8 ), w/a sub category of 4 fer 5 with firsters. #7 FANCY PERSUAUSION is a late foal that hails from a clan who is 3-8 with FTS'ers fitting ALL these exact parameters ( $5, $6 & $9 ), with a sub category of 1 for 2 with Irad in the irons. Gal worked out in 48 flat over the Oklahoma sod on her second birthday just ten days back ( her fourth straight workout in as many different venues, for whatever that's worth ), and of course, we dig the slot. #5 MISS MARISSA closes out the tri.  OFF TURF: 7-3-1-5-6 NOTE: AS OF 1:36, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 5-1-3, AND IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT RYERSON IS 3 FOR 4 WITH 2YO FILLY FIRST TIME STARTERS AT THIS LEVEL @ 14-1 OR LOWER ( $7, $23 & $6 ), WITH A SUB CATEGORY OF 2-2 RIGHT HERE, AND WILL BE OUR PLAY OF THE DAY.  NOTE: DUE TO A LATE, LATE SCRATCH, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Ratajkowski

2.Tossup

3.Blame It On Mom

#7 RATAJKOWSKI is another late bloomer we're diggin' today, as this one didn't start things out until this year -- her fifth. mare was bet strongly off the crisp morning moves when starting things out 26 days ago, and although disappointing to her backers, did in fact complete the triple that afternoon. When it comes to second time dirt starters at this level ( ITM 50 days ago or less ) Lynch has won with three of six ( $8 & $3 x 2 ), & there's a sub category of 3:2-0-1 with those adding the wonder drug. We remember watching #2 TOSSUP finish a game 2nd up at The Spa last August, and commented to the late Rick Violette as he walked past us after the race -- "Gutsy try there Rick -- she'll be okay down the road." Well, things haven't quite panned out that way, as obviously, something went awry at some point afterwards, but the comebacker was honest enough, and we'll afford one more shot in the 2nd start after a long break. #4 BLAME IT ON MOM was strong in the debut, when completing the exacta at 7-1 back in the fall, but as so often happens with the youngsters, was sent to the sidelines for the rest of 2018, until today. Majah playah if fully cranked up. 

 

Race  7

1.Codrington

2.Puffery

3.Theaterintheround

We don't have a good read on this race so tread lightly. #7 CODRINGTON has won her only "3rd off the L/O" try ( and in a mid level turf route, no less ), was a runner up in the only start on this ( firm ) local turf, and 18% trainer/14% jockey click at a 33% rate ( 7-21 ) with those returning in less than 49 days at 24-1 or lower ( $4.66 ROI ). #1A PUFFERY has done well in 2nd off the shelf go rounds, and is available for purchase for the first time. #9 THEATERINTHEROUND overcame some trouble to get up first the only time she had a "For Sale" sticker attached to her rump,and did such from an outside slot as well. 1(MTO)-1A-2-8-9  NOTE: AS OF 2:03, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS ARE 8-2-1.

 

Race  8 

1.Blugrascat's Smile

2.J J's Dreaming

3.Storm Prophet

#8 BLUGRASCAT'S SMILE is a sensational 13:5-4-2 at the dist. ( 29:2-9-4 otherwise ) and gets a jockey improvement from Maragh to Joel here; timid choice. #5 J J'S DREAMING is 3:1-2-0 off "legit" layoffs, and the win & a placing cam underneath Jose. Barn is ice cold, so we'll leave beneath. #4 STORM PROPHET has a type of career boxscore that positively SCREAMS "unders" ( 27:3-10-6 ), so we'll do just that.

 

Race  9 

1.Daddysneverready ( AE )

2.Two Graces ( AE )

3.Barton Hall

#12 DADDYSNEVERREADY (AE) showed zippo in the debut, and even less second time out. This one needs a couple to get the sniffles in order to face the starter, but should that be the case, we're assuaged by the fact that Maker just about doubles his normative 19% batting average with second off the break/second time routing maiden special weight turf stock ( $13, $17 & $20 ). #11 TWO GRACES (AE) has done okay on the gramma so far, and is another on the outside looking in, but Ryerson ( 10% day to day ) is 3-8 w/ mdspwt. turf stock who missed the $ < 50 days back & are 29-1 or lower ( $9, $31 & $5 ). #2 BARTON HALL earned a good figure in the career starter, and may improve with a tidier onset.  OFF TURF: 8-11-13(MTO)-2-12(AE)  NOTE: AS OF 2:10, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 6-11-13(MTO).

 


Belmont Spring  (Current):     65-321      ( $527.40 )  Beatable Favorites  3-20 ( 15.0% )     Favorites Win %:    124-321 ( 38.6% ) ( As of Thursday morning )

 

Aqueduct Spring   ( Final ):    32-110      ( $322.60 )  Beatable Favorites   1-4  ( 25.0% )      Favorites Win %:    39-110  ( 35.5% )

Aqueduct  Winter ( Final ):     73-374     ( $490.60 )   Beatable Favorites: 7-23 ( 30.4 % )     Favorites Win %:   150-374 ( 40.1% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):     5-32         ( $54.20 )    Beatable Favorites: 0-3    ( 0.0% )      Favorite's Win %:    9-32     ( 28.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-377   ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 128-377  ( 34.0% )  +/-: -26.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568        ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2168-10573 ($18,131.70) Beatable Favorites : 312-1115( 28.0% )Favorite's Win %: 3890-10680 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2253-11141 ($18,950.90) Beatable Favorites : 327-1183( 27.6% )Favorite's Win %: 4014-11152  ( 36.0% ) +/-: -14.9%  against a 16.4% takeout


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