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Just one lonely winner yesterday, but we did have some palpitations in the nitecap when our 43-1 shot grabbed the lead mid stretch, only to be run down by the chalk.  

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Belmont Park - 6/16

 

Race  1

1.Laura's Posse

2.Flatexcel

3.Unsullied

#5 LAURA'S POSSE has improved over his last quartet, and comes in today of a career best win 5o days ago. On that note, Gary Gullo is a tight 3 for 5 with mid level dirt stock off that exact amount of days ( 9-1 or less ( $17, $9 & $11 ). There's a sub category of 2 fer 2 right here, and of course, we dig the draw. #2 FLATEXCEL drops down to a level where he's finished second in two of his last three outings, and picks up Irad today. #3 UNSULLIED has been freshened up by the new shotcaller Bruce Brown for today's first start off the claim, and barn is outperforming their usual expectations in 2019. Pre-claim/pre-layoff pilot comes back, which we always like.

 

Race  2

1.Ghostly Beauty

2.Sheikha Mo 

3.Tiple ( Ire )

#6 GHOSTLY BEAUTY has a nice collection of speed figures, is 3rd off the layoof, and takes the biggest drop in the game for a barn that's a poyfect 3 fer 3 when doing that to their turf dashers who missed the baccala < eight weeks back & are beneath 4-1 odds ( $5 x 2 & $6 ). Manny Man gets the mount. #7 SHEIKHA MO is extremely well bred for this sorta deal, but was sold at auction for half the stud fee, so take a looooooong look in the paddock/post parade. #2 TIPLE (IRE) drops 20% off a disappointing 4th place finish, but we'll give her another shot w/Irad returning.  OFF TURF: 3-4-1(MTO)-7-6

 

Race  3

1.Cause I'm Alex

2.Old Upstart

3.Sandy Lane

#1 CAUSE I'M ALEX is halved in price today for the 2nd off the shelf foray, and old timer is 4:1-1-0 off this kind of break throughout his career. 'Miah's brother has a crisp 5:2-1-2 ledger with mid level dirt sprinters who were 1-2-3 at 12-1 or lower while taking this kind of drop ( and off this L/O scenario ), w/mutuels of $8 & $10. #4 OLD UPSTART is a nifty 4 fer 8 @ the trip, but just 13:1-5-0 locally, so we'll leave beneath. #2 SANDY LANE has posted successive lifetime best figaros for former agent Bobby Klesaris, and this ain't really that much of a jump in class off the recent tally.  NOTE: AS OF 11:38, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, THE #'S 3 & 5 WILL BE OUR SECOND & THIRD CH

 

Race  4 

1.Quiet Out East

2.Six Percent

3.Daddy Knows

#3 QUIET OUT EAST was a gamely and nicely clear runner up when going lawn on the lawn last time out, and recognize that the best speed figure earned came on the sand, so this one should appreciate the surface switch -- especially if it's a fast track. #4 SIX PERCENT came from the back of the pack to pick up the place money when coming off the bench, and that was this one's first start over a glib surface. While a bounce is always possible, we'd be remiss in excluding. #6 DADDY KNOWS hung up an adjusted 78.4 in the bow two months ago, and as this one is better bred for a fast track than a wet one, we can see vast improvement this afternoon.

 

Race  5

1.Argonne

2.Royal Albert Hall ( GB )

3.Sentry

#4 ARGONNE shoots for the hat trick today, is 3:2-1-0 on this course, and Bond has the Goldfinger with 2nd off the L/O turf stayers who tallied a score < 44 days back & are below the 4-1 watermark today, as he's 3 for 3 w/ that specific survey $5 & $8 x 2. #2 ROYAL ALBERT HALL (GB) is a nibbler by nature ( 42:3-10-10 ), and that's enough reason to toss underneath. #5 SENTRY has hit the super in both tries off a legit break, and is reuinted with his favorite captain for this affair.  OFF TURF: 2-1-6-5-8

 

Race  6 

1.Art Thief 

2.Weekend Madness

3.Blue Jean Kitten

#6 ART THIEF has been within four lengths of the winner in both starts to date, but nonetheless, this one is available for purchase for the first time today. Stephens ( 15% day to day ) owns a 5:3-1-1 mark with maiden claiming turf stayers returning in less than 16 days ( 75-1 or beneath ), with solid mutuels of $9 x 2 & $42. #8 WEEKEND MADNESS is another with a "For Sale" sticker attached to her rump for the 1st time, and despite Franco having finished up the track in his lone pairing with this one, he signs up for a return engagement in this spot. #3 BLUE JEAN KITTEN has crashed the party in 4 of 6 ans is eligible to do so vs. these.  OFF TURF: 11-2-1-3-4

 

Race  7

1.Expert

2.Timber Ghost

3.Backsideofthemoon

#1 EXPERT fell a length and a half shy of getting one for the thumb last time out, and Rice was apparently none too pleased with the result, as Maragh gets the boot after going five wide that day & six wide in a five horse affair in the win prior to that. Linda keeps it in the family by naming Jose to ride for All In The Family racing here, and she owns a sweet 23:9-8-0 ledger with Belmont based optional dirt runner who were in the money less than 48 days back ( 4-1 or beneath ). The R.O.I. for that sampling is $2.05, and this one should be able to sit a perfect stalking trip in what we consider an elongated sprint. #5 TIMBER GHOST has been a new animal over the last ten months, and will likely be forwardly placed early on. #4 BACKSIDEOFTHEMOON is Leo's best horse, and he calls upon the son in law to get this one his first win in nearly a year & a half. Should be coming a bit late in the game.  NOTE: AS OF 11:52, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-3-2.

 

Race  8 

1.Clyde's Image 

2.Krampus

3.Master Merion

#1 CLYDE'S IMAGE is a very consistent sort who has beensteadily ascending the Beyer ladder since starting things out, and has won both starts when breaking from the inside; slim margin in the day's feature. #3 KRAMPUS has a nice "declining" mark & is 3:1-1-1 off an absence. #5 MASTER MERION won his only try over these blades, and you're getting Franco & Ward at 15-1.  OFF TURF: 5-6-2-7-8  NOTE: AS OF 9:48, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.  NOTE: AS OF 11:56, DUE TO AN EQUIPMENT CHANGE ON ONE OF OUR SELECTIONS, OUR CHOICES WILL NOW BE 5-1-3.

 

Race  9 

1.Schwarbertown

2.Wisecrack

3.Suremoney

#3 SCHWARBERTOWN finished 9th of 12 when trying the gramma last time at 5-2, but lost by less than four, and returns to the brown stuff in this spot, over which he posted an adjusted # of 52.3 in the debut. Blinks can't hurt today, and we'll give a tepid nod, despite the rider being on a 2-23 run of late. #9 WISECRACK showed zippo in the most recent, but totes the lightest impost of his career, and may perk up at decent odds today. #5 SUREMONEY was a lively runner up on 5/25, and shed seven lb.'s off that effort.  NOTE: AS OF 9:50, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

 

Belmont Spring  (Current):     62-303      ( $513.10 )  Beatable Favorites  3-20 ( 15.0% )     Favorites Win %:    117-303 ( 38.6% )

 

Aqueduct Spring   ( Final ):    32-110      ( $322.60 )  Beatable Favorites   1-4  ( 25.0% )      Favorites Win %:    39-110  ( 35.5% )

Aqueduct  Winter ( Final ):     73-374     ( $490.60 )   Beatable Favorites: 7-23 ( 30.4 % )     Favorites Win %:   150-374 ( 40.1% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):     5-32         ( $54.20 )     Beatable Favorites: 0-3    ( 0.0% )       Favorite's Win %:    9-32     ( 28.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-377   ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 128-377  ( 34.0% )  +/-: -26.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568        ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2168-10573 ($18,131.70) Beatable Favorites : 312-1115( 28.0% )Favorite's Win %: 3890-10680 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2253-11141 ($18,950.90) Beatable Favorites : 327-1183( 27.6% )Favorite's Win %: 4014-11152  ( 36.0% ) +/-: -14.9%  against a 16.4% takeout


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