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Sometimes you're the bug and sometimes you're the windshield. Yesterday -- we were the buuuuuug.

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 6 - #10 Annals of Time


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Belmont Park - 6/7

 

Race  1

1.Mucho Sunshine

2.Ahead of Plan

3.Four Ten

We begin the eleven race day with an octet of question marks: Six firsters, a fave off a loooooong layoff, and the only other experienced runner being conditioned by an hombre who's 0-9 when adding blinks to his second time starters @ this level, so let's look for a price. Employing the "Diamond in the Rough" methodology with the #8 MUCHO SUNSHINE. This one has a bullet gate breeze ( ALWAYS meriting inclusion from these parts ) amidst a bevy of ordinary moves, draws well, went for 4X the stud fee at auction, and is a half to several multiple winning dirt sprinters who banked a good deal of money. We even did some in depth research of those who worked out at the same distance for the aforementioned gate move, and while gate breezes are usually substantially slower than those with a running start ( stands to reason ), this move was 1.92 seconds quicker than the 2nd best that morning than recent maiden winner, Private Beach, who's hit the board three straight times, AND 2.10 seconds zippier than stakes winner Haul Anchor. Lots of visitors here this weekend, and they invariably will lean towards big names when in doubt, so we'll ( gulp ) swing away with a Shivmangal horse at big balloons. #5 AHEAD OF PLAN crushes these if even 90% cranked up & healthy. The operative word being "if", of course. #6 FOUR TEN is another with a couple'a sensational breezes on display & must be left in the hopper.

 

Race  2

1.Memories Eternal

2.Prisoner's Dilemma

3.Funderella

#11 MEMORIES ETERNAL was vastly improved when going over the blades for the first time right here on 5/3, and six returnees from that heat have come back to go 6:1-1-0 in their subsequent outings ( from just three different races ) w/ALL of them showing improvement in the speed figure area ( +22.5 pts. ). 19% Sharp is just that with three year old maiden special weight turf stock who were 1-2-3 < 68 days ago, facing older at odds of 10-1 or undah, as he's 13:4-3-0-2 with that type. There's a sub category of 1-1 with dashers, and of course, we dig the slot. #4 PRISONER'S DILEMMA is another who has done better on the green than the brown and should be forwardly placed once again. #6 FUNDERELLA rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 8-5-6-9-7 

 

Race  3

1.Oggonis

2.Kulik Bear

3.Wild Medagliad'oro

#3 OGGONIS is a $15,000 bred animal who went for 50 times that much right up here in Saratoga two summers ago, so right off the bat, you know he's well meant. This one is a half to a runner who won his only turf route ( actually, he was the only one to try the stuff ), and sire Animal Kingdom was 6:3-3-0 on the lawn & poly. Furthermore, the paternal grandpappy was fantastic over the stuff ( 11:9-1-0, $1.25 million ) and paternal grandmom owned a 20:3-3-3 boxscore doing the same ( 195G ). #11 KULIK BEAR has improved with each start, the most recent of which occurred when trying the gramma for the first time. #1 WILD MEDAGLIAD'ORO went all the way when going long on the lawn 19 days back, but not quite sure he can get that same trip once again.  OFF TURF: 6-5(MTO)-7(MTO)-4(MTO)-9  NOTE: AS OF 11:14, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.H Man

2.Binkster

3.Empire Line

These three and no more for all our rolling bets. #1 H MAN won in a nearly identical spot right here two fortnights ago, and Servis is rarely nervous with optional dirt dashers who won 8-50 days ago & are 7-2 or lower today ( $3.00+ ROI ). Hat trick well within reach. #5 BINKSTER has been a bit of an in and outer this year, but has a big shot if able to get back to that penultimate start. #4 EMPIRE LINE hasn't been loaded in the gate in a couple of St. Patrick's days, but did some fine work way back when, and returns sans tes-teeklees. 

 

Race  5

1.Separation of Powers

2.Mybigitalianfriend

3.Chalon

#7 SEPARATIONOFPOWERS was a mite flat in the comebacker, but improved by about 10% in her only 2nd off the L/O try when winning the Test up at The Spa last year, and rates a slight edge in this spot. #2 MYBIGITALIANFRIEND won by a pole in her lone try off a hiatus, and has had a "miraculous" transformation since being transferred to the Servis barn. #3 CHALON sure is an easy horse to like, huh? 14:6-5-1 lifetime mark, four in the money finishes in second off the break tries, and a 2:1-1-0 record over this strip. Could benefit with some pace to cut into.  NOTE: As of 8:24 P.M. Thursday, we are flip flopping our top two selections. 

 

Race  6 

1.Big Handsome

2.Awesome Saturday

3.Have At It

#7 BIG HANDSOME ( I can dig it. ) is 6:2-2-2 at Bel., won his only third off the L/O try by 4+ lengths, and Tony Dutrow ( 15% day to day ) is 6:3-0-2-1 with 3rd off the bench optional turf stayers ( $6, $7 & $9 ). Mild choice. #1 AWESOME SATURDAY performed admirably in the first two tries off the layoff, but for some reason was switched over to the sand on the 2nd of May, and a flop ensued. Back on the verde this afternoon and could rebound. #9 HAVE AT IT got his photo taken in the lone "second off a hiatus" foray, and is reunited with Saez, under whom he was a gamely runner up at 7-1 last summer.  OFF TURF: 5-11-3-4(MTO)-1  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #10 ANNALS OF TIME fills the bill as Chad Brown is 0-12 with those returning off hibernations of 546 days or more. 

 

Race  7

1.Rookie Salsa

2.Theitalianamerican

3.Dixie Mo

Today's 7th race is the Tremont stakes, and for some history on this event ( won a record five times by Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons, with the first and fifth wins a whopping 25 years apart ) please go to this link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tremont_Stakes . We see it as a wide open event, but will lean in the direction of the #8 ROOKIE SALSA. March foal replicated the speed figure earned in the victorious debut when being stepped up to the stakes level, and going off at triple the odds. We like this one's running style & the fact that he shipped for the secondary score, and the eight slot suits him perfectly. #1 THEITALIANAMERICAN ( our second paisan in an exacta slot today ) came home in a sizzling 11 seconds first time out, and sheds two pounds off that performance. #6 DIXIE MO was visually impressive when when getting his Polaroid taken in the overture, and although the Beyer came back somewhat lowish, sometimes these babies can improve by leaps and bounds. 362 Tommy tells us there is such room for improvement. 

 

Race  8 

1.Golf for the King

2.Strike Power

3.Whitmore

#9 GOLD FOR THE KING is 4:1-1-0 off the break, 5:3-1-0 when starting from the outermost two slots, and although he's been a bit of a money burner over his last sextet, we feel there will be some value today given the depth of the field. #5 STRIKE POWER brings a big number to the dance today, so apparently he found the confidence boosting class drop to his liking. Not sure which animal we're getting today, but feel compelled to leave in the mix. #7 WHITMORE has the quintessentially perfect type of "declining" record that we've grown to love ( 27:12-8-2 )  and is reunited with his favorite jockola today.

 

Race  9 

1.Holy Helena

2.Competitionofideas

3.Lady Montdore

#1 HOLY HELENA hasn't been seen since the March 2nd score, but has won one of two "legit" off the L/O outings, and like we mentioned in the prior race, we dig those who have a nose for the line. Mild choice in a toughie. #6 COMPETITIONOFIDEAS has yet to miss a super, shows a 3:2-1-0 resume' in routes on this course, and has earned a good deal of baccala with Javy in the stirrups. #4 LADY MONTDORE has a win & a length loss from as many second off the layoff forays, and we're going to leave in the mix given the decent form over firm ground back home.  OFF TURF: 8-3-2-1-4

 

Race  10

1.Amade ( Ire )

2.Arklow

3.Raa Atoll ( GB )

#3 AMADE (IRE) is positively a a rock star at this distance, as attested by that 6:5-1-0 boxscore at a mile and 7/8th's or more. We simply adore the versatility shown in doing such: turf or poly, blinks or not, left hand turns or right, and carrying anywhere between 116 & 132 pounds. The wonder drug is now in play, and you know that Prat has plenty of experience riding in these marathon jammies. Both "true" 3rd off the layoff outings resulted in a tally, and the more we type, the more we like. #6 ARKLOW has partaken in the superfecta in the last nine outings where the jockey stayed aboard & finished 2nd in his lone "3rd start off the absence" try. #8 RAA ATOLL (GB) finishes up the Guinness/Apple Pie/Bangers & Mash triple based on the drop in weight & addition of Lasix after a recent two mile score.  OFF TURF: 2-4-5-6-1

 

Race  11

1.Lila Ruth

2.Derby Day Jewel

3.Appreciate

#2 LILA RUTH employed a change of tactics when returning of a ten month sabbatical, as she was sent through a blistering opening quarter of 22 flat on a course labeled "good", and understandably petered out late in the game. The maiden breaking effort came over firm ground, and four year old ( facing several three year olds ) deserves another shot in today's 2nd off the break attempt. #5 DERBY DAY JEWEL found the eye cups and/or the stretchout to her liking when going all the way down in Hallandale Beach and perhaps the light bulb stays on today? #7 APPRECIATE bested a next out winner in last & posted her 2nd best fig in her only 3rd off the shelf start.  OFF TURF: 6-11-2-1-8

 


Belmont Spring  (Current):     48-232      ( $407.80 )  Beatable Favorites  3-15 ( 20.0% )     Favorites Win %:    88-232 ( 37.9% )
( As of Friday morning )

 

Aqueduct Spring   ( Final ):    32-110      ( $322.60 )  Beatable Favorites   1-4  ( 25.0% )      Favorites Win %:    39-110  ( 35.5% )

Aqueduct  Winter ( Final ):     73-374     ( $490.60 )   Beatable Favorites: 7-23 ( 30.4 % )     Favorites Win %:   150-374 ( 40.1% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):     5-32         ( $54.20 )    Beatable Favorites: 0-3    ( 0.0% )      Favorite's Win %:    9-32     ( 28.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-377   ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 128-377  ( 34.0% )  +/-: -26.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568        ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2168-10573 ($18,131.70) Beatable Favorites : 312-1115( 28.0% )Favorite's Win %: 3890-10680 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2253-11141 ($18,950.90) Beatable Favorites : 327-1183( 27.6% )Favorite's Win %: 4014-11152  ( 36.0% ) +/-: -14.9%  against a 16.4% takeout


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