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A touch of a mini slump the last two days, buyt we're still riding a 20 for 64 run, as well as a 67 for 270 streak ( $540 Bet -- $726 Returned ), and maintain a flat bet profit over our last 555 races ( with 8 losses to spare ). Let's end the week on  great note !

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 7 - #3 Still There


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Belmont Park - 5/27 - Happy Memorial Day, and God bless our soldiers, past and present

 

Race  1

1.Tizgame

2.Castle Casanova

3.Market Bubble

We start out New York Showcase Day with a troika of nice DRF Formulator stats, so let's get right to 'em... #9 TIZGAME took to the turf like a Toro lawnmower, procuring the sheepskin at 2-1 over at The Big A. 23% Rice more than doubles that rate with maiden breaking turf dashers off breaks of 11-67 days @ 9-2 or less ( $9, $11 & $5 x 2 ). There's a sub category of 3 fer 4 with allowance runners, and we'll give him a slight edge. #7 CASTLE CASANOVA: 'Miah is a tight 3-5 when putting his sprinters on the sod for the first time off breaks of 34-58 days within this odds range ( $11 & $5 x 2 ). #4 MARKET BUBBLE owns a touch of back class, has been gelded since the most recent, and Duarte is 3 fer 9 when putting his dashers on the gramma for the 1st time off sabbaticals of 58 days or more ( < 19-1 ) & the winners in that sampling came back $11, $20 & $6.  OFF TURF: 7-2(MTO)-1(MTO)-9-3

 

Race  2

1.More Mischief

2.Kid Is Frosty

3.Orchid Party

Not the best of reads on this race, so tread lightly. #1 MORE MISCHIEF did some nice work in the two fast track outings last year ( one of them a stakes ), and Brown has been working this one in pretty steady fashion up at Oklahoma for the comebacker. #7 KID IS FROSTY has yet to finish off the board, and that -- plus the class drop -- is enough reason to include. #6 ORCHID PARTY has hit the board in five of six since the Toscano claim, and Franco sticks around after the solid placing at 11-1 on April 26th.

 

Race  3

1.Veterans Beach

2.Mickey T

3.Elektronic

#6 VETERANS BEACH is more than just a hunch play on this most important of days, as you can honk if you like Donk with allowance turfers going short off L/O's of 68 days or greater ( $6, $8 & $39 ). #5 MICKEY T won his only turf sprint right here, and that's reason enough for us to toss in. #3 ELEKTRONIC rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 3-7(MTO)-2-9-10

 

Race  4 

1.Newly Minted

2.Espresso Shot

3.Wadadli Princess

Get ready for a great stretch duel here between the #2 NEWLY MINTED and the #7 ESPRESSO SHOT ( love that with a bit of Sambuca ). We'll give the nod to the former, due to the sweet 7:5-0-1-1 trainer stat with NYB stake runners who won less than 51 days back & are 2-1 or beneath at BEL ( Positive ROI ). Lone speed in the race should have no excuses. #7 Espresso Shot has been freshened up since flopping in the Gazelle, and the 48 flat breeze last Sunday tells us that she's ready for action. There's an "apparent" solid jockey change in play here ( despite Jose's poor start at the stand ), but we feel Cancel did nothing wrong in this one's initial two turn dirt attempt, and should've gotten one more shot. #1 WADADLI PRINCESS has improved w/each fast track dirt try and may be overlooked, given the normative low percentage connex. 

 

Race  5

1.War Canoe

2.Jc's Shooting Star

3.Munchkin Money

#10 WAR CANOE was nicely spotted when winning up at the soon to be defunct Suffolk Downs just eight days back, and they're hoping the confidence booster will be enough to elevate this one to a state bred stakes victory today. That may be a tall order, given the figure earned in Massachusetts, but keep in mind that it came in the slop, and by prorating it to her best turf #, some improvement can be in the works -- at big odds. #4 JC'S SHOOTING STAR was last seen getting her photo taken on National Hangover Day, but has done some nice work here, and Franco sticks around. #6 MUNCHKIN MONEY is 7:3-2-0 @ the distance and is 2-4 over this particular oval.  OFF TURF: 4-6-7-10-5

 

Race  6 

1.Memories Eternal

2.Daddysneverready

3.Youth Gone Wild

#11 MEMORIES ETERNAL improved smartly from the first time to the second, and although the pedigree tells us that a regression is quite possible today, we like the fact that Sharp is just that with maiden claiming turf sprinters who hit the board less than 48 days ago & are 8-1 or beneath, as he's 6:4-1-1 in that regards ( $2.73 ROI ). #1 DADDYSNEVERREADY hasn't been seen in a couple of Easters, but undergoes a gamut of changes for today's return to action: Cutback, new barn, new rider, wonder drug, and the biggest drop in the game. This one went for 75K at auction, so you'd have to assume he'll be ready to go today. Employing another good Ubilio trainer angle with the #3 YOUTH GONE WILD , as 8% bossman is 2-10 with runners of this ilk coming back after breaks of 14-65 days ( 20-1 to 40-1 ). The winners returned $75 & $79, and there were a couple of good running lines way back when.  OFF TURF: 10-5-11-14(AE)-1  NOTE: AS OF 10:48, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 3-1-10.

 

Race  7

1.Indy's Lady

2.Kathryn the Wise

3.Bonita Bianca

#5 INDY'S LADY is 1 for 2 when going from two turns to one, finished 3rd in her lone "2nd off the shelf" go round, and you're getting top flight connections at double digit odds in a race with a lot of question marks. Swing away. #4 KATHRYN THE WISE is 5:2-1-0-1 off a break, and one of those tallies came right here. 8-5 is a bit short, but waddya gonna do... #7 BONITA BIANCA owns a 3:1-0-1-1 mark in comebackers and is a sensational 3 fer 4 at Big Sandy. Toss in a 6 for 8 record when beginning from the outermost three slots ( 1-9 otherwise ), and you have a live 6-1 shot with Manny Man in the irons.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 STILL THERE fills the bill, as Kobiskie is 0-12 with ungraded stock off breaks of 51 days or greater.

 

Race  8 

1.Offering Plan

2.Therapist

3.Mo Maverick

#3 OFFERING PLAN has hit the board in eight straight, is 5 for 12 here, 4-10 @ the trip, and sheds three pounds off a length loss; mild edge. #2 THERAPIST is 2 for 2 off a layoff, 3 for 4 at the dx., and has a poyfect 3 fer 3 ledger over this particular course; must include. #6 MO MAVERICK is one for three in 3rd off the L/O spins and owns enough speed to be dangerous.  OFF TURF: 3-2-4-1-6

 

Race  9 

1.Frosted Ice

2.Blindwilie McTell

3.Bankit

#2 FROSTED ICE was awful when having front wraps added in an open stakes down in Arkansas, but is second off the L/O for the 1st time this afternoon, and Moquett is 3 for 4 with that type in ungraded dirt dashes who were OTB in last & are 20-1 or undah ( $12, $7 & $25 ). Stock goes up if the bandages are removed. #6 BLINDWILLIE MCTELL was a dead game and well clear runner up in a similar spot 37 days in the rear, and Rice is a more than nice 7 for 9 with Belmont based runners of this caliber who crashed the fiesta 24-50 days back & are 4-1 or < ( $3.05 return on investment ). #8 BANKIT can totally be forgiven the most recent, as this one's wet track breeding is substantially worse than that of a fast track, and given that this one scored the last time he faced NYB foes over a glib surface, well....we'll bite at 10-1.

 

Race  10

1.Syndergaard

2.Haul Anchor

3.Mr. Buff

#2 SYNDERGAARD was brought seven wide in a six horse field last time out ( NURSE !! ), but is historically about 4.6% better on a fast track than a wet one, so right off the bat, you can expect some improvement. 16% Terranova just about doubles that batting average with ungraded dirt stock who were 1-2-3 12 to 50 days back & are 12-1 or lowah. He's 17:5-6-2-1 in that survey, w/mutuels of $23, $9 & $5 x 3 ). #6 HAUL ANCHOR had finished out of the superfecta in seven straight before the gutsy Rudy claim for 25 large, and five year old has earned about 5X that amount since. Big shot. #4 MR. BUFF closed out the exacta in both dirt sprinting starts off a L/O, and could go all the way if able to shake free early.

 

Race  11

1.Wild William

2.Schwarbertown

3.Laughing Manners

#5 WILD WILLIAM was eased when last seen around turkey time, and has subsequently been transferred to a new trainer, and that's of some significance. Why? Because this trainer is 5 for 7 when being handed a runner and bringing them back in five weeks or more, and just look at the healthy mutuels -- $15, $13, $37, $8 & $16 !! There's a sub category of 2 for 2 w/turf runners, and Luis sees fit to ride. #12 SCHWARBERTOWN broke a touch slow in the bow, but rushed up to the top before losing by just a honker on the main strip. Gelding gets a much better draw today, and Linda runners move forward second time out. #2 LAUGHING MANNERS closes out the elongated week for us.  OFF TURF: 6-7-12-13(AE)-16(MTO)




Belmont Spring  (Current):     42-187     ( $379.20 )  Beatable Favorites   3-14 ( 21.4% )      Favorites Win %:    74-187 ( 39.6% )

 

Aqueduct Spring   ( Final ):    32-110      ( $322.60 )  Beatable Favorites   1-4  ( 25.0% )      Favorites Win %:    39-110  ( 35.5% )

Aqueduct  Winter ( Final ):     73-374     ( $490.60 )   Beatable Favorites: 7-23 ( 30.4% )      Favorites Win %:   150-374 ( 40.1% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):     5-27         ( $50.00 )    Beatable Favorites: 0-1    ( 0.0% )      Favorite's Win %:    8-27     ( 29.6% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-372   ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-53 ( 34.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 127-372  ( 34.1% )  +/-: -25.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568        ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2168-10568 ($18,131.70) Beatable Favorites : 312-1112( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 3889-10675 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.2% against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2253-11136 ($18,950.90) Beatable Favorites : 327-1180( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4013-11147  ( 36.0% ) +/-:  -14.9%  against a 16.4% takeout


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