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Another big day for us Sunday, as we had a profitable Grand Salami ( giving us a flat bet profit for the opening week ), two Rolling Daily Doubles of $100 & $210, and a Rolling Pick Three of $824 ! 

We now have a positive ROI over 394 races, and our current hot streak now stands at 38 for 109 ( $218 Bet...$362 Returned ) !!

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #8 Variant Perception  Race 5 - #7 Retro Street


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Belmont Park - 5/2

 

Race  1

1.Sweet Melania

2.Aurelia Garland

3.Cambria

#3 SWEET MELANIA has been working steadily down in Palm Beach Downs for today's overture, and this daughter of American Pharoah ( who's done well do far at the breeding shed ) went for more than 5X the stud fee at Keeneland back in September. This is the second foal to race out of a dam who was 3 for 8 in dirt dashes ( 118K ), and T.P. wipes the competition clean with firsters fitting ALL this exact criteria ( any jockey ) at 4-1 or less ( $2.63 R.O.I. ). Should trump the competition. #4 AURELIA GARLAND has been working sensationally for today's career starter, and WW is 3 fer 6 with those of this ilk ( any rider ), w/ the winners coming back $7, $17 & $8. Unraced dam has dropped two decent dirt dashers to date ( 3-9, 37G & 2-3, 71G ). Draws outside of the above, but Bravo is on a one for fifty something run, so we'll leave beneath. #2 CAMBRIA ( uncoupled barnmate of 'Garland ) breaks from a tough slot at this distance, but obviously is backed by the same trainer stats as the other Ward runner, & we'll include.  NOTE: AS OF 11:57, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  2

1.Call Me Kayla

2.Much Trouble

3.Uhtred

#2 CALL ME KAYLA has improved with each start over her last triad -- both in terms of speed figures AND placings. Barn has had some good success with the new journeyman ( as a bug ) and gives him another shot today. Slight edge. #9 MUCH TROUBLE rallied stoutly in his first ever turf try, and the solid placing was enough to keep this one protected against the claim today. Breeding suggests the result was likely no aberration, and we'll leave in the mix. #3 UHTRED came from out of the clouds to procure the sheepskin at first asking, and is another who is ineligible to be purchased after that effort.  OFF TURF: 2-4-5-8-9  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #8 VARIANT PERCEPTION doesn't make our first draft so why would we accept favoritism?

 

Race  3

1.Pushover

2.Foolish Humor

3.Kit Kat Katie

In today's opener we put the outside part of the Ward entry ( Bravo ) ahead of the inside part ( Dylan ) mainly because of the draw, and we're gonna do the same here with #7 PUSHOVER. Double D caught a flyer with a FTS'er the other day and went all the way, so we know he can get 'em out of the starting apparatus quickly. That being said, this one is also bred and owned by the conditioner, and both the mama & the papa did well going one turn on the gramma. #1 FOOLISH HUMOR ( uncoupled entrymate with the above ) is a $50,000 bred animal who went for $200,000 ten months ago, and February bred has a maturity edge over the rest of the bunch. #4 KIT KAT KATIE rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 6-3-1-4-2

 

Race  4 

1.Crimson Frost

2.Alberobello

3.Jump Ruler

#1 CRIMSON FROST has hit the board in six straight, is 11:3-5-2 at the trip, and rates the slimmest of margins in a heat with THREE uncoupled entries -- in just a 6 horse race. #3 ALBEROBELLO has been befallen by legit layoff lines after each of his last four races, but filly has done some good work going 1X, and that includes a placing right here. #5 JUMP RULER finished second in her lone two turns to one foray and positively excels at this dx., as attested by the 8:4-3-1 mark in that department, compared to being 7:1-2-1 otherwise. Won in an identical spot two starts ago, so must obviously be respected in this spot.  NOTE: AS OF 12:05, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD CHOICE.

 

Race  5

1.Mom I Forgive You

2.Shak's Hidden Gem

3.Diamond N Simon

#5 MOM I FORGIVE YOU couldn't find a softer spot to take a spin on the grass for the first time, and comes in today with an upwards arrow besides her last three Beyers. Turf Tommy is a bit on the lowish side, but maternal grandsire had a win & a 4th in his only two times going long over the stuff ( a listed stakes and a Grade One ), and we'll give this one a tepid nod. #4 SHAK'S HIDDEN GEM has an honest enough turf resume' but barn is on a 1 for fourty-something run, so we'll leave beneath. #2 DIAMOND N SIMON ( entered for her lowest tag to date ) is another making her turf debut, but has decent breeding for the stuff, and connections feel confident enough to bring this one from the Keystone state.  OFF TURF: 2-9-4-1-6  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 RETRO STREET

 

Race  6 

1.Deft

2.Skychief

3.Azzedine ( Fr )

#10 DEFT lost by less than three when trying the sod for the first time a bit over three weeks ago, and as that was is first start in nearly three months, the result wasn't half bad. Lasix is in the mix today, and that's pretty relevant, as Bobby Ribaudo ( from a tiny sampling ) is 2 fer 3 when doing that to his turf sprinters off breaks of less than 44 days , @ odds of 7-1 or lower ( $5 & $15 ). Franco returns on a runner who is on the upswing, and we like what we're seeing here. #8 SKYCHIEF finished 4th of 5 in a stakes at Aqueduct on April 13th, but the connections have seen enough, as they make this one available for purchase for the 1st time. When it comes to maiden claimers going short over the blades ( 37 days or less ), Maker has scored with half of his 14 starters, & has a ROI of $3.15 in that area ( 5-1 or < ). #4 AZZEDINE (FR) is a longshot's longshot for sure, but did some good work ( for Brown ) last year, and this barn ( who finished 1-2 in a race the other day to get off the schneid ) is 1 for 2 with mdclm. turf stock off sabbaticals of 68 days or more ( 60-1 or undah ) w/ the winner paying $32.  OFF TURF: 8-5-6-10-2

 

Race  7

1.Timely Tradition

2.Shimmering Moon

3.Sing For Beauty

We have three decent DRF Formulator stats in play here, so let's get to them in a no frills manner...  #3 TIMELY TRADITION: Atras is 2 for 3 when being handed a runner and putting them in a dirt sprint off a break of 37 days or lower at 7-2 or < ( ITM in last ), with the winners paying $8 & $5. #7 SHIMMERING MOON: 23% Rice is a nice 11 for 20 with locally based mid level dirt horsies who crashed the party less than two fortnights ago& are 3-1 pr beneath ( $2.59 return on investment ). #10 SING FOR BEAUTY: Baker is a tidy 3 for 6 with Belmont dirt runners at this level off L/O's of 51-71 days ( $6, $7 & $10 ). NOTE: AS OF 12:06, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Bon Raison

2.Sir Ballantine

3.Backsideofthemoon

Since being claimed off Todd Pletcher for a mere 16K, #4 BON RAISON has been a new animal, amassing a whopping 11:5-0-1-4 mark ( around 200 large earned ), and sheds 64 ounces off a tally, which we positively adore. Colt has won both his outings over Big Sandy, and is in on an upwards tick. #3 SIR BALLANTINE is back where he belongs today after getting trounced in the Carter, and could spice things up a bit. Whenever you see an optional race like this with such extreme conditions, it always pays to see who they may have been written for. In this case, it was clearly written for #1 BACKSIDEOFTHEMOON, as this one won a race on January 20th, and the condition reads "Non winners of a race since February 1st". Obviously, they don't want to put this one up for sale, and understandably, as he's still cashing some checks.

 

Race  9 

1.Tarallucci ( AE )

2.Gunboat Diplomacy ( AE )

3.Linda's Ballet

( This race took us 53 minutes to do ) #15 TARALLUCCI (AE) needs a lot of luck to make it over to the races today, but should that be the case, brings in tow a nice trainer stat, which has Weaver a dreamy 3 for 5 with second time mdspwt. starters on the turf getting juice for the first time @ 70-1 or less ( < 45 days ); would be drawing ideally. #13 GUNBOAT DIPLOMACY (AE) is another on the outside looking in, but is 2nd off the bench today, and Brice Brown is 3 fer 6 with runners of this caliber who hit the board less than 43 days back ( $15 & $5 x 2 ). #9 LINDA'S BALLET was in the back half of the field first time out, but namesake conditioner has won with 3 of 6 second time starters trying the gramma for the 1st time under these parameters ( 25-57 days ), with mutuels of $7, $21 & $8.  OFF TURF: 9-16(MTO)-2-11-4   NOTE: AS OF 12:08, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #'s 6 & 4 WILL BE OUR SECOND AND THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

 

Belmont Spring  (Current):      9-28         ( $66.20 )  Beatable Favorites    0-1 ( 0.0% )       Favorites Win %:     13-28   ( 46.4% )( As of Thursday morning )


Aqueduct Spring   ( Final ):    32-110      ( $322.60 )  Beatable Favorites   1-4  ( 25.0% )       Favorites Win %:    39-110  ( 35.5% )

Aqueduct  Winter ( Final ):     73-374     ( $490.60 )   Beatable Favorites: 7-23 ( 30.4 % )      Favorites Win %:   150-374 ( 40.1% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):     3-21         ( $13.00 )   Beatable Favorites: 0-1    ( 0.0% )       Favorite's Win %:    6-21    ( 28.6% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 60-366   ( $518.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-53 ( 34.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 125-366  ( 34.2% )  +/-: -29.1% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568       ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2166-10562 ($18,094.70) Beatable Favorites : 312-1112( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 3887-10666 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2251-11130 ($18,913.90) Beatable Favorites : 327-1180( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4011-11141  ( 36.0% ) +/-:  -15.0%  against a 16.5% takeout


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