KevinCoxItem

 

Just a reminder that if you want today's selections & analysis for today's Sunland Derby from Sunland Park, merely go back one page.

AMAZING news for us here. If you loved the annual homage I write about my father every year for SaratogaBets , you'll be happy to know that I was asked to do a reading for "Our American Stories" (1.7 million weekly listeners), and guess what -- here it is !  http://www.ouramericannetwork.org/story?title=My-Parents-Are-Gone-But-Their-Traditions-Aren-t&fbclid=IwAR0nxu9wzv3sHr3853i6prcuIYN43GK6J-1YaDzmy7ft7oIE2CD5AbDiCjU

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Aqueduct - 3/24

 

Race  1

1.Flat Out Jayvien

2.Racing Raven

3.Smidge

Well, as we look forward to "Randi Persaud Day" next week ( he had a big closing day last year ), we thought we'd warm up with one of his charge in today's opener. #6 FLAT OUT JAYVIEN was a well clear runner up in a similar spot  on 2/28, and conditioner who only wins 6% of the time is 6:3-1-0 with maiden claiming dashers who hit the board less than four dozen days ago ( 5-2 or < ) with the winners coming back $5 & $6 x 2. #3 RACING RAVEN is the only one we'll be utilizing as a saver here, based on the overall solid body of work & better numbers on a fast track than a wet one. It was good to see T. Chang get a win the other day, and we'll toss him in the unders with #2 SMIDGE, as this will be the first time runner has gone over a glib surface at this level. 

 

Race  2

1.Take Your Place

2.Bootlegger ( Fr )

3.Crea's Bklyn Law

#6 TAKE YOUR PLACE won this race on the first of the month, so why can't he do it once again? 12% Toscano owns a 4-12 mark with runners of this ilk who won less than 56 days ago & are 6-1 or beneath. 2 for 4 mark when breaking from the outermost two slots on the dirt duly recognized. #3 BOOTLEGGER (FR) has hit the board in both dirt tries so far and sheds some weight while dropping in class. #2 CREA'S BKLYN LAW is returned to the level claimed from two back, and happened to close out the exacta in that deal as well. Goes from an apprentice to a journeyman today.

 

Race  3

1.Tizgame

2.Step to the Bank

3.Bassman Dave

#3 TIZGAME showed a nice little "Z" pattern in the career starter when losing 4 1/2 lengths from the quarter to the top of the lane, then re-gaining three from that point to the line. Tomlinson tells us there shouldn't be much of a regression today, and this one looks like a lockola. #4 STEP TO THE BANK hasn't been seen since finishing in the rear with the gear about nine months ago, but has been working sensationally for today's comebacker & is a four year old facing some younger competitors. Could spice things up at a big number. #5 BASSMAN DAVE is showing a nice gate breeze for today's career starter, and while the dam was 1 for 5 in dirt dashes ( 59K ), this one is a half to Fleet Irish, who was 3 fer 12 dancing to this music, netting more than 141G. 

 

Race  4

1.Know Point Given

2.Starry Rose

3.Roses From Ben

#6 KNOW POINT GIVEN has been freshened up a bit since the January disappointment and returns with a ten pound bug in the irons. If you can see your way clear past some of the ugly running lines, then you just may be able to find some positive performances here and there. Back to back crisp morning moves a positive sign for one who normally doesn't show some zip. #8 STARRY ROSE has faced tougher in both starts to date and looms as the deserving favorite. #1 ROSES FROM BEN ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) completes our top three.

 

Race  5

1.Countable

2.Takecharge Mirella

3.Maymo Entry

#4 COUNTABLE showed zippo in this race on March 1st, so Linda slaps the "For Sale" sticker on her tushie today and enlists the services of 25% Alvarado. Meekest of choices in a heat that's hard for us to hug. #2 TAKECHARGE MIRELLA has yet to miss the superfecta, but nonetheless, is another who's available for purchase for the first time today, and why not, as this $50,000 auction purchase has already earned nearly twice that amount. Recent work tells us that McL. has this one ready. Either the #1 JAZZY J ( a win over the track & a jockey upgrade ) or the #1A SHEZA DIVA ( bullet breeze & in with a tag for the 1st time ).

 

Race  6

1.Top of the Mint

2.Pier Forty

3.Papa Jim

These three and no more for all our rolling action...  #4 TOP OF THE MINT has closed out the triple in both starts to date, and you may get a slightly inflated price due to the regression in the speed department last time out. New journeyman Reylu stays around. #1 PIER FORTY should be no worse than 3rd here ( for all you show punters ), but is slowwwwwly beginning to give the appearance of becoming "that" kind of a maiden, if you get my drift. Weaver snakebit these days ( 31:2-10-3 ) so we'll leave beneath. #7 PAPA JIM has been a bit headstrong in the last duet, and was extremely wide in the start before that, so right off the bat we have some excuses here. Obvious player w/a relaxed, clean sojourn.

 

Race  7

1.Real Dan

2.Big Gemmy

3.Playwright

#10 REAL DAN hasn't been in action since the maiden breaking debut 399 days ago, but don't fret, my pet, as T.P. wipes the competition clean with 2nd timers on the dirt who won more than 160 days ago, as he's 7 for 13 in that regards. Manny Man returns, and recognize that the score also came from the outside post. With natural maturity, the speed number from that day is obviously much higher. #1 BIG GEMMY has been shipped up from the Bayou for some New York lovin' as for some reason, they let this one knock heads with open foes down there. Lone win came at seven panels, and that's not always the easiest distance to navigate. Including. #2 PLAYWRIGHT always seems to give a good account of himself, and we'll chunk in.

 

Race  8

1.Pink Twist

2.Storm Rising

3.Free Kitty

#7 PINK TWIST was positively ghastly in the Bay Ridge on New Year's Eve Eve, so Terranova gave this mare a bit of time to chill out and relax for a couple'a months. She digs this place, so that's always a positive you can hang your hat on, and the pre layoff pilot comes back, which we always like to see. Meeeeeeeeeeeeekest of selections in a feature where we were unable to eliminate anyone at first glance. Despite getting smacked around at the onset of the Oldsmar debut, #8 STORM RISING got the job done in a professional manner beneath their rendition of S. Camacho, and the pedigree tells us it was likely no aberration. Just like in today's 7th, this one scored from the outside in that maiden breaking effort. #3 FREE KITTY bested what we would consider to be a tougher bunch last time out, and has hit the board in all seven times here.

 

Race  9

1.Mac's Revolution

2.Mend Up

3.Shock Therapy

#9 MAC'S REVOLUTION finished 3rd vs. open company 23 days ago, and Barker is a crisp 3 for 7 with locally based 3rd off the shelf mid level dirt stock who were 1-2-3 last time out. Bug back on today, and he got his photo taken with this colt three starts back. #6 MEND UP ( who faced tougher in the most recent ) finished 3rd in this race on February 17th and sheds two pounds off that deal. If you bet the #8 SHOCK THERAPY last time out, you were enjoying the race like a morning cup of coffee, as this one got the sheepskin in handy fashion. Logical once again.

 


Aqueduct      ( Current):     65-337    ( $396.10 )     Beatable Favorites: 7-23  ( 30.4 % )   Favorites Win %:   139-337 ( 41.3% )( As of Sunday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Final ):     0-5          ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites: N/A                      Favorite's Win %:    0-5       ( 0.0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2018 Final ) 60-366   ( $518.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-53 ( 34.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 125-366  ( 34.2% )  +/-: -29.1% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568       ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-8 (All Final):2061-10077 ($17,281.50) Beatable Favorites : 304-1085( 28.0% )Favorite's Win %: 3698-10180 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2146-10645 ($18,100.70) Beatable Favorites : 319-1153( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3861-10767 ( 35.9% ) +/-:  -14.9%  against a 16.5% takeout


 CoxLA2017