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We closed out last week with a grand slam ( along with two brutal runner up beats ), a successful Beatable Favorite, a cold $30 Triplle, two cold Exactas of $11 & $24, and two cold doubles of $8 & $10.

Just a reminder that for today's coverage of Aqueduct, merely go back one page. 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): ( Odds not shown as of 5:58 P.M. Sunday ) 


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Graded Stakes - 11/26 - Clark Handicap - Churchill Downs

 

 Race 11

1.Dr. Post

2.Militarist

3.Happy Saver

#3 DR. POST has partaken in the superfecta in all his starts but one, and found the line first both times he went from two turns to one. Slimmest of margins in a feature with but one first draft elimination. #7 MILITARIST is quite light from a speed figure perspective, but we always give a runner two shots under a particular set of circumstances ( in this case, it would be a two turn dirt route over a glib surface ), and the 349 Tommy tells us to give this one a shot at a big number. #4 HAPPY SAVER ( uncoupled entrymate with our top selection ) owns a win & a placing from as many tries off the bench and it's hard to fault those taking a favorable view. 


Aqueduct           ( Current ): 18-76     ( $126.20 )   Beatable  Favorites    0-5  ( 0% )      Favorites   Win %:    23-66     ( 34.9% )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 10-67      ( $87.50 )   Beatable Favorites    1-3  ( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:    31-67     ( 46.3% )


Aqueduct           ( Final ):   86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2836-14523 ($24,784.90) Beatable Favorites : 364-1327( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5474-14605 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.7%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2921-15091 ($25,602.80)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1395( 27.2% )Favorite's Win %: 5637-15192 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.1%  against a 16.6% takeout


  CoxLA2017