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We closed out last week with a grand slam ( along with two brutal runner up beats ), a successful Beatable Favorite, a cold $30 Triplle, two cold Exactas of $11 & $24, and two cold doubles of $8 & $10.

Just a reminder that for today's coverage of the Clark Handicap from Churchill, merely go back one page. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #9 Bail Out  Race 3 - #7 Mezcal  Race 5 - #5 Seven Lillies  Race 6 - #5 Tough Street ( only of #12 draws in )


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 11/26

 

Race  1

1.Rudy Rod

2.Jerusalem Gates

3.Flight to Paradise

#10 RUDY ROD was claimed from his namesake on the 5th of the month, and while the comment line from that day says "...belatedly", this one came home in a snappy 44.70 seconds in finishing fourth. New shotcaller hikes this one up in class today ( as by the rule ), and switched back to the dirt, which is fine by us, as the three year old has partaken in the super over his last quartet on the stuff. #3 JERUSALEM GATES has been beset by layoff lines, but despite such, the lightly raced 5YO always seems to give a good account of himself ( which includes two spins over this oval ). #1 FLIGHT TO PARADISE rounds out the top three.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #9 BAIL OUT fills the bill, as Baby Englehart is oh-fer-16 with turfers who were IN the money 19-67 days back ( and an additional 1-10 with those who missed the baccala ).   NOTE: AS OF 10:55, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING ON THE DIRT, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 11-4-6.  NOTE TO ALL READERS: While we screwed up the top two selections in our original analysis ( that's a first ! ), our updated selections were correct.

 

Race  2

1.Western Advantage

2.Profusion

3.Ouch Ouch Ouch 

After a promising start to his career, #6 WESTERN ADVANTAGE entered the H.P.P. ( Horsewitness Protection Program ), and has since finished in the back half of the pack in his troika of outings since then. Gelding gets in light for today's third start off the bench, and finds himself at his lowest level to date. From a DRF Formulator standpoint, 16% Weaver more than triples that normative batting average with those cutting back while going green to brown off breaks of 15 days or less ( 14-1 or beneath ). He's 8:4-0-3 in that regards, with payouts of $7 x 2, $11 & $8. #5 PROFUSION was a lively and daylight clear runner up in this race 34 days back, and makes all kinds of sense once again. #3 OUCH OUCH OUCH ( by 'ArchArchArch' ) is another going from the green to the brown, and as he's only gone over a fast track but once, we'll give him a chance to spice things up a bit. 

 

Race  3

1.Entwine ( Ire ) 

2.Federalist Papers

3.Equal Measure

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #1 ENTWINE (IRE) got smacked around a bit at the onset last time out, but despite such, lost by only a length when rallying late in the game. Filly ended up in a new barn afterwards, and we like that this one is claim protected -- despite being out of jail. Should be no worse than third for those who like to grind out a show profit. #5 FEDERALIST PAPERS somehow managed to go seven wide in a field with that many on the first of October ( Nurse !! ), and deserves a chance to make amends in her 3rd start off a hiatus. #6 EQUAL MEASURE completes the troika of runners we'll be using in this affair, based on the score two back, before taking the overland route next time out.  OFF TURF: 1-5-4-2-8  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 MEZCAL doesn't make our first cut, so why would we accept favoritism?

 

Race  4 

1.Speaktomeofsummer

2.Giacosa

3.Flower Point

Another race where we're seeing the ball clearly with our listed selections.  #1 SPEAKTOMEOFSUMMER hasn't been seen since the summer, but Clement charge owns a win ( without Lasix ) and a 4th place finish ( in a race where six next out runners amassed a cumulative 6:2-1-1-1 mark, from five different affairs ) on the Inner. Runner with a touch of back class has the highest impost in the field, and we'll give her a slight edge. #3 GIACOSA owns a win & a placing from as many "true" second off the layoff engagements, and in addition to that, has two superfecta finishes from as many outings on the course as well. We're digging her "declining" mark of 12:4-2-1 also. #4 FLOWER POINT went from zero to hero the only time she was in a 3rd off the L/O spot ( coming home in 33 & 3 ), and looks to be a solid ITM prospect for all you show punters out there.   OFF TURF: 4-1-6-2-5

 

Race  5

1.Big Brown Shoes

2.Lookin for Trouble

3.Doublepour

#3 BIG BROWN SHOES returned off an elongated absence to post back to back career best efforts ( a win & a placing ), and gets a Hall of Famer in the irons ( we think Diaz is down in Tampa ) after nearly shocking the world at 59-1 at Big Sandy. Could be sitting on another goodie for today's third off the break attempt. #6 LOOKIN FOR TROUBLE completed the exacta the only time he returned off an absence on the dirt, and put forth a decent showing in his only foray on a fast, local strip. #2 DOUBLEPOUR has been fairly consistent over his last quartet ( outrunning his odds in three of them ), and would be no surprise here.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 SEVEN LILLIES

 

Race  6 

1.Fontanafredda ( AE )

2.Lady of Thornton ( AE )

3.Coolcatsnkittens

As our top two selections are on the outside looking in, there is a fairly good chance that this race may need an overhaul after the scratches come out, so check back in. #12 FONTANAFREDDA (AE) immolated some baccala at odds on 41 days in the rear, but had less than perfect trips over her last pair, and would appear to just about lay over this bunch if able to make it over to the races this afternoon. #11 LADYOFTHORNTON (AE) would appear to be the one of a chance to upset the above, given the decent figaros of late, but Carmouche off to a chilly start at the stand, so we'll leave beneath. #9 COOLCATSNKITTENS went for nearly 3X the stud fee at Ocala earlier in the year, and barn does well with runners of this ilk.   OFF TURF: 4-10-7-11(AE)-2  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 TOUGH STREET ( only if our top selection draws in )  NOTE: AS OF 10:59, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 9-5-12(AE) WITH NO BEATABLE FAVORITE.

 

Race  7

1.American Gentleman 

2.Horn of Plenty

3.Quickflash

#7 AMERICAN GENTLEMAN has only beaten hone five in just as many starts coming into today, but was plunked for 30 large on 10/16 ( the second time claimed from his last two when eligible ) and new bossman is a poyfect three fer three with mid level sand sprinters who missed the baccala 32-50 days back ( $20, $12 & $8 ). Blinkers come off now, and we like that this one actually moves up the ladder despite the recent disappointments. #8 HORN OF PLENTY switches back to the main today, and has a decent enough resume' over the surface to merit inclusion. #1 QUICKFLASH has never missed an exacta here and is available for purchase for the first time today.

 

Race  8 

1.Monition

2.Never Surprised 

3.Kygo ( Ger )

#8 MONITION improved by about 11.8% from the debut win to the followup tally, and not only did both scores come at more than 7-1, but we love the versatility shown when displaying a change of tactics down in Keeneland, as he was sent to the top. Not sure what this one will be going off at, but there's an old adage about using undefeated horses going off at 3-1 or more. #6 NEVER SURPRISED looms a heavy favorite here, and justifiably so, for a classy sort who's never been worse than second. Grab him by the tail to get the glory. #1 KYGO (GER) makes his first start in the States here, and from a very limited sampling. Maker is two of three w/ those going long on the lawn off sabbaticals of 68-114 days who are NOT getting the wonder drug ( 12-1 or beneath ).  OFF TURF: 5-3-4-1-2

 

Race  9 

1.Shalimar Gardens 

2.Crazy Beautiful

3.Army Wife

#3 SHALIMAR GARDENS won by a pole when going over a fast track for the 1st time at BEL two starts back, and by no means disgraced herself when jumping into the deep end of the pool in Lexington a bit over a month ago, with a 4th place finish @ 37-1. The Beyers have gone up, up, up since starting things out, so right off the bat, who knows where her ceiling is, and several members of the family tree have accumulated a 12:4-2-3-1 record in two turn dirt races, so she should handle this trip just fine. Draw a line through all the Grade One starts by #4 CRAZY BEAUTIFUL ( Dig it. ), and what you have is a gal with a nifty 9:6-3-0 mark, which includes wins at 2X AND when going from the verde to the brown stuff. Toss in a score in her only heat when toting 124 pounds, and this one has the look of a majah playah. #6 ARMY WIFE ( cross entered yesterday at CD, so check the scratch board ) won by a schnoz in her sole deal off the pine, and was a troubled -- but decent third -- the only time she appeared in this zip code. Logical.  NOTE: AS OF 11:03, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  10

1.Smile Bryan

2.Montauk Daddy

3.Valmont

#1 SMILE BRYAN was an even 3rd at this level when making his first start off the snag, and is reunited with the pilot from his last victory. Mild choice. #6 MONTAUK DADDY has oodles of speed and was photogenic the last time he had a "For Sale" sticker attached to his fanny. #4 VALMONT is another zippy sort who can cause a ruckus if 'Daddy stubs his hoof a bit.  OFF TURF: 9-5-11-2-10 


Aqueduct           ( Current ): 18-76     ( $126.20 )   Beatable  Favorites    0-5  ( 0% )      Favorites   Win %:    23-66     ( 34.9% )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 10-67      ( $87.50 )   Beatable Favorites    1-3  ( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:    31-67     ( 46.3% )


Belmont              ( Final ): 68-300   ( $523.40 )   Beatable Favorites   10-32 ( 29% )   Favorites  Win %:   100-300  ( 33.3% )

Saratoga             ( Final ): 81-417   ( $578.30 )   Beatable Favorites    7-19 ( 36.8% ) Favorites Win %:     166-417 ( 39.8% )  

Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3072-15804 ($26,574.30)  Beatable Favorites : 388-1412( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 5962-15886 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.9% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3157-16372 ($27,393.50)   Beatable Favorites : 403-1480( 27.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 6125-16473 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


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