Took it on the chin yesterday, but we still maintain a flat bet profit for the meet. 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 2/26


Race  1

1.Hot Dame 

2.Flower's Fortune


#5 HOT DAME is a New York bred who has raced everywhere but in the Empire State over her last troika, but that is rectified as Caramori ships this one northward from Maryland in search of her own kind. We like that this one is still kept of Lasix, and we'll give her a tepid nod. #6 FLOWER'S FORTUNE takes the biggest drop in the game today and draws well while retaining the hot jockey from the recent disappointment. Obvious threat. #2 BEWPS is another one plunging after flopping in the maiden special weight ranks, and the 375 Tomlinson figure for today's distance tells us there's some room for improvement for this January foal.  NOTE: AS OF 12:41, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 2-6-3.


Race  2

1.Fair Lassie

2.Fair Regis 

3.Awesome Alana

#2 FAIR LASSIE has hit the board in three straight, five of seven, has done her best work at this trip ( 4 for 9, compared to being 1 for 11 otherwise ), and 24% Broberg just about doubles that rate ( 21 of 45 ) with mid level dirt stock off breaks of 39 days or less ( 4 & up, F & M ) at 3-1 or undah. There's a positive ROI in that DRF Formulator sampling, and this one should give a good account of herself. #4 FAIR REGIS should be able to complete a very fair exacta based on the game placing behind he above last time out, and a five pound weight swing as well as a two slot switch in the post position department. #6 AWESOME ALANA has beaten home but one in her last duet, bt digs it here and totes the lightest impost of her career. 


Race  3

1.Grumps Little Tots

2.First Line 

3.Dark Storm

#5 GRUMPS LITTLE TOTS hasn't faced the starter since the fall, but gelding has been in the money in all four starts off a break in the action, and has accomplished the same in all three outings right here ( in which he wasn't interfered with & moved up via DQ ). Manny Man gets the nod here, and he guided this one to a 6+ length score right here nearly two years ago to the day. #2 FIRST LINE blew away weaker right here about three weeks back, and is now two for four when taking two lefts; may spice things up a bit. #4 DARK STORM got his Polaroid taken in his sole "3rd off the L/O" spot, and drops two lb.'s off a tally, which is something we always dig.  NOTE: AS OF 9:31 P.M. WEDNESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS. 


Race  4 

1.Miss Jimmy

2.Ruvies in Time

3.Fight on Lucy 

The top two should suffice for all our rolling action. #3 MISS JIMMY is just about as consistent an animal as you can come across, as the 19:8-8-1-1 mark belies, and interspersed amongst that is a stellar "declining" mark at today's distance of ground. Jockey upgrade in play here. #2 RUVIES IN TIME nearly went all the way in this race at the end of January, and has also excelled at today's dx. ( 4-12 ) comparatively to other trips ( 0-7 ). The gorilla in the room tho, is Schosberg's oh-fer-29 ledger with optional dirt stock in the 1-50 day bracket; mixed signals. #1 FIGHT ON LUCY can close out the 3...2...1...blastoff tri based on her three fer three I.T.M. rate when loading into the innermost two posts, as well as being reunited w/the pilot of both her wins.


Race  5

1.Rudy Entry

2.Run White Rabbit

3.Quick Intro

There may be some hidden value with the #1 KID CASH here, as if you can see your way clear past the most recent ( altered off heels ), and the one prior ( dead last on the lawn, over which he;s poorly bred ), then what you have are back to back "73's", with one of them coming over this oval ( AND without juice and a hood -- which are presently part of the package today ). Jockey/Trainer combo scored on Sunday at double digit odds, and this one is extremely live. The above's entrymate -- #1A RUDY ROD -- was in the rear with the gear first time out, but there's no scary drop for this chap who was purchased for 110 large at auction just a few months ago, and the hood is now added. #2 RUN WHITE RABBIT gets in with a feather for today's career starter and brings along a decent Tommy ( 361 ). #6 QUICK INTRO is another one starting things out here and is decently bred for this sorta deal.


Race  6 


2.Mia Bea Star


#1 ADHWAA put forth an honest showing in a similar spot on the 8th of the month ( when going off @ 20-1 ), and "The Master of the Haberdashery, Kelly Breen, is a sublime 10:4-3-3 with locally based allowance dirt stock whp crashed the fiesta < 35 days back ( at 19-1 or undah. The winners in that survey paid $9, $8, & $5 x 2, and recognize the fact that Trevor had two rail skimming scores here this past weekend. #2 MIA BEA STAR comes in today off a career best numero, and although there's a hike in class, we dig the overall weight mark here, as well as a 32 ounce reduction in the weights. #7 MAGNETIQUE has ( surprisingly ) displayed marked improvement when going from Pletcher to Nevin, and we see little reason to eliminate a runner who's been a part of the action over her last quartet. 


Race  7

1.Coffey Entry

2.My My Michelle

3.Ok Honey

Both the #1 ALPHADORA a gamely third in her only dirt try off a respite ), and #1A CHEATHAM HILL ( 2 of 9 locally ) comprise decently priced factions of an entry that has as good a chance as any in a race which is hard to decipher. #5 MY MY MICHELLE has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but has blinkers added this afternoon, and is in fact 2:1-1-0 over an Aqueduct fast track. Factor if sound. #9 OK HONEY is a nibbler by rote ( 44:2-9-8 ), and we like how she's protected against the claim today after being purchased more than a month ago. 


Race  8 

1.Moonshine Maker



Watching one of my favorite flicks whilst typing away tonight... "Hey, have you ever heard of artificial inspiration? You see, it don't just work with people. Horses can have babies by artificial inspiration, too."  #9 MOONSHINE MAKER has been fairly flat of late, but with maidens we permit ourselves to go anywhere in their past performances to find something positive ( as they're maidens for a reason, you know ), and this one had a coupe, of solid adjusted figaros before the wheels came off ( with one of those coming from the twelve hole ); weight off can't hurt. #1 TALESPIN is pretty much a professional maiden these days, but is another who occasionally displays signs of life, and slumping Katie always tries hard for the minor spoils. #5 SIMBASALLTROUBLE has partaken in the superfecta in four of five and could cause a ruckus at a price.  

Aqueduct        ( Current ):    62-327     ( $714.80 ) Beatable  Favorites    5-11( 45.1% ) Favorites  Win %   111-327   ( 34.0% ) ( As of Friday morning ) 

Aqueduct Fall     ( Final ):      28-175     ( $454.00 )  Beatable   Favorites    1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):       10-54     ( $122.40 )  Beatable Favorites      0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2750-14059 ($23,795.50) Beatable Favorites : 359-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5312-14141 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.7% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2835-14627 ($24,613.40)  Beatable Favorites : 374-1380( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5475-14728 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.6% takeout