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One was the loneliest number for us here yesterday, but we pulled out a couple of exacta boxes of $169 & $18.   


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont Park - 10/17

 

Race  1

1.Mission Wrapitup

2.Ryan's Cat 

3.Rejected again

#5 MISSION WRAPITUP slides back down to the level claimed from two back ( a race where he showed, toting seven more pounds ), and 16% clam more than triples that rate with Belmont based mid level dirt stock off breaks of less than a fortnight ( 12-1 or less ). The payouts for that sampling were $9, $15 & $12, and gelding has done okay at the trip. #2 RYAN'S CAT has lots of speed, but has lost ground in the lane in his last sextet, and as this three year old has more placings than 1sts and 3rds combined, we'll slide beneath. #1 REJECTED AGAIN shoots for the hat trick today, and it's well within reach, despite the slight hike into non-restricted company. 

 

Race  2

1.Kitten's Cat

2.Releasethethunder

3.Ghost Giant

#6 KITTEN'S CAT has been a popular item at the claim box of late, having been snagged after three of his last four trips to the track, and why not, as this one has hit the board in four of his last five. Six year old "horse" ( You hang on to those dangling participles, buddy boy ! ) has done decent work at this trip & over this strip, and there's a nice DRF Formulator stat in play here. Over the last 60 months, Falcone is no snowman with freshly purchased turf sprinters at 10-1 or less ( < 46 days ), w/ payoffs of $16 x 2 & $11. #2 RELEASETHETHUNDER by no means disgraced himself in his lone try going over the blades way back when, and takes the obligatory hike in class today for an outfit that's 2-7 with their BEL sod sprinters at 16-1 or lower ( less than 32 days ). #6 GHOST GIANT has recently fired an uncharacteristic bullet, and that's always worth paying attention to for a runner who likes to come from off the pace. Good guy David Duggan MUCH better than his stats belie, so much so that he is one of my top five trainers in New York that I would send a horse too.  OFF TURF: 10-6-2-1(MTO)-7(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 12:08, OUR THIRD SELECTION WILL BE 1A.

 

Race  3

1.Zero Gravity

2.Musical Heart

3.Empty Tomb

#5 ZERO GRAVITY switches back to the sandy stuff today, and not only has this one hit the board in all three T to D attempts ( on a fast track ), but that troika was when going two turns to one as well. Timid selection in a race with no first draft eliminations. #3 MUSICAL HEART hasn't been seen since the wire to wire score in the Adirondacks a bit more than two months back, and we like that a frigid Donk is confident enough to more than double this one in class, despite having been kept in jail since the tally. Chestnut chap has partaken in the exacta in more than half of his 23 career starts, and is but a head shy of a 2-2 ledger in dirt tries off the bench. #1 EMPTY TOMB takes the obligatory hike up the ladder after a smart score at the N2X level, and has Manny Man is down in Lexington, Jose gets the assignment. 

 

Race  4 

1.Sainte Mere Eglise 

2.Dustinthewind

3.Eighty Seven North

#6 SAINTE MERE EGLISE bested only one horse + the chase ambulance when going on the dirt for the first time 23 days ago, and is promptly transferred back over to the verde this afternoon by Bush. One wonders if the most recent was an attempt to throw potential suitors off the scent today, and if you feel that way, then this would be the true "big time drop" off the last turf deal. Sixth different pilot in as many outings is an improving one in Cancel, and note that blinkers are now a part of the makeup. #1 DUSTINTHEWIND hasn't shown much since returning off a year & two day hibernation, but with maidens we go anywhere in their P.P.'s to get some value ( as they're maidens for a reason, ya know ) and this one posted an adjusted 66.4 ( vs. tougher ) way back when -- without Lasix. Legit chance at a big price. We all know #5 EIGHTY SEVEN NORTH is a bit of a money burner, but we also know taht you can draw a line through the most recent when hopelessly marooned; toss in.  OFF TURF: 7-10-5-4-14(AE)  NOTE: AS OF 12:07, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 9-4-8.

 

Race  5

1.Vineyard Sound

2.Preamble

3.Hawaiian Noises 

#7 VINEYARD SOUND went pillar to post in a vastly improved effort when making his first start for Atras on closing weekend up at The Spa, and that's turning out to be a key race, as six returnees from that affair have come back to amass a cumulative 6:3-0-1 ledger. As that record is from just three different events, that means that every followup engagement yielded a victor. There's an average Beyer improvement of 9.2 points in the Beyer dept. for that grouping ( with a more realistic 1.0 points if you discount the runner who was eased in the penultimate outing, and the more we type...  #3 PREAMBLE finds himself at an all time low and may perk up. #1 HAWAIIAN NOISES is two for two when first to load, and that's reason enough to include. 

 

Race  6 

1.Greatheart

2.Texas Basin 

3.Hogh Knuckles 

We don't really have the best of reads on this race, so tread lightly. #12 GREATHEART is a 400K auction purchase who has been performing admirably in the morning for today's overture, and this one is a half to a 1 for 3 turf sprinter who ain't facing much here. #4 TEXAS BASIN was a mite tardy to the party first out, but still posted a decent fig that day, and could give a better showing with a more alert onset. #3 HIGH KNUCKLES as good as any for the show Focaccia.  OFF TURF: 11-7-4-8(MTO)-1  NOTE: AS OF 1:11, #'S 9 & 10 WILL BE OUR SECOND & 3RD SELECTIONS.

 

Race  7

1.The Golden Door

2.Neuro

3.Shinjuku

We're not really digging this race, as attested by the recent 0-46, 0-32 & 0-8 strings that our top three conditioners are bringing in. That being said...  #2 THE GOLDEN DOOR improved by about 10% from the first start to the second, and although there's not too much honking for Donk these days, we see that he's two for three when cutting back his turfers who were ITM less than three fortnights ago @ 28-1 or lower ( $36 & $13 ). #5 NEURO gave a decent account of himself when going over the dirt for the first time, and if you were to prorate that to his best turf outing, it would place him right in the thick of things. #8 SHINJUKU makes his first trip to the races today, and does such with a few nice breezes in tow. This one is a half to two winning turf sprinters ( 1 for 2 & 1 for 3 ), and Schwartz homebred should be left in the mix.  OFF TURF: 7-2-5-8-9  NOTE: AS OF 1:15, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 8-7-5.

 

Race  8 

1.Forever Wicked  

2.Farragut

3.Beach Access 

#3 FOREVER WICKED finished dead last in both of the recent turf attempts, but a quick glance at the lowish 252 Tomlinson figure for the stuff tells us that not much was expected in that regards. Best adjusted Beyer Speed Figure ( 76.5 ) came on this strip, and while we realize that there's a lot of wood to chop to get back to that effort, we're willing to take a shot, as the three dirt deals preceding the turf starts ( which, from a prorated numerical standpoint weren't that bad ) were heading in the right direction. #1 FARRAGUT has been a part of the superfecta in all his outings but the debut, and got his Polaroid taken in the lone attempt from the pine. #5 BEACH ACCESS found the line first in his sole "3rd off the break" spin, and we'll use that as a reason to chunk in.   NOTE: AS OF 1:24, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 2-3-5. IF TRACK BECOMES FAST, ORIGINAL SELECTIONS ARE IN PLAY.  NOTE: AS OF 1:37, DUE TO AN ERROR, OUR SELECTIONS ARE 3-2-5.

 

Race  9 

1.I'llhandalthecash

2.Getmotherarose

3.Mitchell Road

Fairly wide open feature on tap here.  #3 I'LLHANDALTHECASH was in the rear with the gear when going over soft ground in a G3 event down in Franklin, Ky., but the rail is definitely not the best place to be in sprints down there -- especially when it's boggy. Drawing a line through that, the prior outing is turning out to be an uuber key race, as the 2nd, 3rd, 4th & 5th place finishers all came back to win, improving their speed #'s by an avg. of 2.3 pts. in the process. This one owns a poyfect 2 fer 2 mark on the Inner, and has done decent work beneath today's pilot. #4 GETMOTHERAROSE was a lively runner up the last time she went two turns to one, and 5:3-1-0-1 ledger on the ITC jumps off the page. #6 MITCHELL ROAD has been 1-2 in 13 of 17 calls to the post.  OFF TURF: 8-6-3-4-9  NOTE: AS OF 1:26, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  10

1.Jewel of Arabia

2.Archumybaby

3.Good Credence

#6 JEWEL OF ARABIA has had a legit opportunity to win in all six of her trips to her track, and is reunited with the helmsman of her most recent tally ( & best numero to date ). Sensible selection. #2 ARCHUMYBABY goes over the half million dollar mark in today's finale, and it's extremely feasible, given the 43:14-5-9 mark accumulated through the years. Game mare positively adores it here, and excels at this dx. also; tough to leave out. #4 GOOD CREDENCE has done her finest work at Bel., and would be no surprise.  


Belmont          ( Current ):     23-159     ( $234.00 ) Beatable    Favorites   1-13  ( 7.7% )  Favorites Win %      48-159   ( 30.2% )( As of Tuesday morning )  


  
Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       7-35       ( $61.20 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )        Favorites Win %:    12-35   ( 34.3% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2670-13563 ($22,847.70) Beatable Favorites : 357-1284( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 5149-13646 ( 37.7% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2755-14131 ($23,666.60)  Beatable Favorites : 372-1352( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 5331-14233 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


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